Glasgow – 2016 Results and 2021 Candidates

As the name suggests, the Glasgow region covers Scotland’s largest city. It also extends somewhat beyond current city boundaries to take in the Rutherglen constituency, which lies in South Lanarkshire Council. Between the 1973 and 1994 Local Government (Scotland) Acts, Rutherglen and Cambuslang were part of the City of Glasgow District Council, so the region effectively maintains that old structure, and has done since creation in 1999.

Glasgow has long been an important economic hub for Scotland, dating to the early days of the British Empire. The opulent Merchant City still stands today as testament to the riches the Glaswegian elite accrued via involvement in the violently racist Slave Trade. Through the Industrial Revolution the city would grow massively, with the Clyde shipyards renowned the world over, and becoming one of the first European cities in the modern era to surpass a million residents.

Economic and social change continued to sweep the city after the war, as both slums and historic boulevards were swept away by motorways and many residents were moved to new suburbs or even out of the city into New Towns. Although suffering from the decimation of its industrial base late in the 20th Century, Glasgow went through something of a renaissance, which though it has not solved endemic poverty has helped transform the city from one reputed for gloom to a vibrant and diverse cultural centre. 

Throughout the democratic era, Labour grew to become the dominant political force in the city. The last Conservative seat in the city, Hillhead, was lost to the Lib Dem’s predecessor party the SDP in a 1982 by-election. Once Labour gained that seat from the SDP in 1987, no other party would win a seat at a Westminster General Election in Glasgow until 2015, and that was the political context the Scottish Parliament was born into.

10 Labour (all Constituency)
4 SNP (all Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 SSP (Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

10 Labour (all Constituency)
2 SNP (all Regional)
2 SSP (all Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)
1 Green (Regional)

9 Labour (all Constituency)
5 SNP (4 Regional, 1 Constituency)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)
1 Green (Regional)

7 SNP (5 Constituency, 2 Regional)
7 Labour (4 Constituency, 3 Regional)
1 Conservative (Regional)
1 Green (Regional)

9 SNP (all Constituency)
4 Labour (all Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Green (Regional)

(Note: This section is based on the national polling averages as of the 1st of April.)

Given the strength of the SNP vote at the moment, it’s vanishingly unlikely that Labour will regain any of the constituencies. Though they face a decidedly uphill struggle in the pandemic context, the Greens have the best shot at a non-SNP constituency victory, if they can do their best Caroline Lucas impression and claim Glasgow Kelvin from the SNP.

The real battleground is therefore likely to be the list seats. Polling a month out from the election has Labour’s fourth seat on the shoogliest peg, though the Conservative’s second seat is barely a whisker more secure. The Greens will be looking to improve on the last election and could pick up a second MSP on the kind of good day their current figures are suggesting, making them the most likely beneficiaries here.

Don’t write off the SNP picking up a 10th seat overall, though. If this election shows a further concentration of their vote in the western Central Belt, they could pick up a list seat in addition to all of their constituencies.