North East Scotland – 2016 Results and 2021 Candidates

The North East covers four Council Areas in full – Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Angus and Dundee City. It also includes a very small chunk of Moray around Buckie and Cullen. The original version didn’t have that bit of Moray but did include the area around Keith, and was also lacking the northern chunk of Angus including Forfar. Formal administrative boundaries aside, you could think of this region as consisting of three very distinct areas.

There’s the big cities, with Aberdeen the 3rd largest in Scotland and Dundee the 4th. As major industrial centres, both cities experienced substantial growth through the early 20th century, but have very individual stories. Dundee has followed the Glasgow route of industrial decline followed by cultural revival, whilst Aberdeen is more akin to Edinburgh in terms of affluence, having been the centre of Scotland’s oil boom. Both have had areas of strength for Labour, though Dundee has a long history of SNP success whereas Aberdeen saw stronger Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

Then there are the coastal burghs, stretching up from the likes of Arbroath and Montrose in Angus through Stonehaven, Peterhead, Fraserburgh and Banff in Aberdeenshire, and terminating in that Moray chunk at Buckie. All of these have strong ties to Scotland’s fisheries, and have been SNP-Conservative battlegrounds for decades.

The third and final area would be the rural farming inland. More than almost any other part of Scotland, rural Aberdeenshire is extremely well and densely populated. These are the areas that by the latter part of the 20th century were driving Conservative-Lib Dem contests.

By the 1997 election which eliminated the Conservatives across all of Scotland, the SNP had settled into dominance of Angus and the Banff and Buchan area, Labour commanded the big cities, and the Lib Dems held sway over rural Aberdeenshire.

6 SNP (4 Regional, 2 Constituency)
4 Labour (all Constituency)
3 Conservative (all Regional)
3 Liberal Democrat (all Constituency)

5 SNP (4 Constituency, 1 Regional)
4 Labour (2 Constituency, 2 Regional)
3 Conservative (all Regional)
3 Liberal Democrat (all Constituency)
1 Green (Regional)

8 SNP (6 Constituency, 2 Regional)
3 Labour (2 Regional, 1 Constituency)
3 Liberal Democrat (2 Constituency, 1 Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)

11 SNP (10 Constituency, 1 Regional)
3 Labour (all Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

9 SNP (all Constituency)
5 Conservative (4 Regional, 1 Constituency)
2 Labour (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

(Note: This section is based on the national polling averages as of the 1st of April.)

Aberdeenshire West is a highly marginal seat, and if the SNP deliver on recent polling then it’s one they are in with a shot at winning. If the Conservative revival had kept up a full head of steam, seats in Angus and Aberdeenshire may have been within their grasp, but those may be difficult gains for them at the moment.

In fact, on current polling they might be at risk of losing one of their list seats, even if they hold their sole constituency. The Greens are currently polling well enough to pick up a seat here, and are possibly the only party in with a particularly strong shot at a gain overall in this region. If the Conservatives do hold all of their current seats, Labour would be next in the firing line, which would reduce them to just one MSP in this region.

Although the SNP have been polling higher than their 2011 result, bear in mind their vote began to redistribute from the North East at the last election, when they suffered an 8.1% drop in regional vote versus a 2.3% drop nationally. As such, they might struggle to replicate their previous feat of winning a list seat and every constituency.

Speaking of redistributed votes, the Lib Dems might need to watch out here too, as this isn’t an area they have a Westminster constituency, which likely means it hasn’t been receiving the same influxes of cash and campaigning before the pandemic ground that to a half. Just like the South in 2016, if they aren’t careful they could lose this seat despite holding up well nationally – though I’d be quite surprised if they did.

One final spanner in the works to watch for here is the newly-launched Alba Party. Though it’s unclear how their vote will be spread and how well they’ll do overall, the general expectation is that as Salmond’s region, they’ll do best here. Even on a poor day overall for the newly born party, they could find themselves with enough support to get him across the line.