West Scotland – 2016 Results and 2021 Candidates

Most of this region is made up of the two highly urbanised counties to the north and west of Glasgow – Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire. In Council terms that means the area fully incorporates Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire. In addition, it also includes the portion of Argyll and Bute around Helensburgh which is historically in Dunbartonshire, plus the entirety of North Ayrshire. When first created in 1999, the region didn’t include the area around Irvine in North Ayrshire.

With a mixture of previously industrialised towns and affluent suburbs, Conservative success lasted until the late 20th Century here in a way it didn’t in other portions of the western Central Belt. In particular, they consistently held the seat of Eastwood and tended to be strong in the western portion of Renfrewshire, in Cunninghame North, and in the Strathkelvin area.

Labour generally held the other seats, which had much more of the working class character, though the SNP very narrowly won the East Dunbartonshire seat in the second 1974 election. When the Conservatives were swept out of Scotland in 1997, Labour would win every seat in this part of the country. Though it wouldn’t bear fruit until boundary changes in 2005 which were never replicated at Holyrood, the Liberal Democrats also began to build a base in the Bearsden and Milngavie portion of East Dunbartonshire.

9 Labour (all Constituency)
4 SNP (all Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

8 Labour (all Constituency)
3 SNP (all Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)
1 SSP (Regional)
1 Independent (Jean Turner, Strathkelvin and Bearsden)

8 Labour (all Constituency)
5 SNP (4 Regional, 1 Constituency)
2 Conservative (all Regional)
1 Liberal Democrat (Regional)

8 SNP (6 Constituency, 2 Regional)
7 Labour (4 Constituency, 3 Regional)
2 Conservative (all Regional)

8 SNP (all Constituency)
4 Labour (3 Regional, 1 Constituency)
4 Conservative (3 Regional, 1 Constituency)
1 Green (Regional)

(Note: This section is based on the national polling averages as of the 1st of April.)

Labour’s poor polling would appear to put Dumbarton in reach for the SNP, given there were just 109 votes in it last time. Don’t write Jackie Baillie off, however, as she’s twice already held this seat in the face of national swings that flipped safer seats than hers. Similarly, the Conservative margin in Eastwood isn’t massive, but will likely be more resistant then elsewhere to erosion.

In terms of list seats, both the Greens and Lib Dems may be hoping that the SNP don’t gain those constituencies. Had the SNP won either last time, the Greens wouldn’t have won the seat they were proportionally entitled to (which happened to them here in 2003) due to the overhang.

This is one of the ways AMS is partly rather than fully proportional, though polling does indicate the Greens should be rather more secure this time around. It’s currently looking like a bit of a coin flip as to whether Labour or the Conservatives shed a seat overall in this region, even if they hold their constituencies.

The Lib Dems weren’t in the running last time, but this is the region with their best shot at increasing their MSP count, especially if they can translate still strong support in the Westminster East Dunbartonshire constituency to Holyrood list votes. Like the Greens, they would be negatively impacted by SNP overhang, and it’s not impossible they’ll win enough votes for a seat in principle but not once constituency seats are allocated.