Aberdeen South
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Airdrie and Shotts
Alloa and Grangemouth
Angus and Perthshire Glens
Abroath and Broughty Ferry
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Bathgate and Linlithgow
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Central Ayrshire
Coatbridge and Bellshill
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Dundee Central
Dunfermline and Dollar
East Kilbride and Strathaven
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh West
Falkirk
Notes on Notional Results
Estimates compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association. Calculations for Scotland done by Professor David Denver, those for Northern Ireland by Nicholas Whyte.
Due to the fact neither the Greens nor the Brexit Party (now known as Reform UK) stood in every constituency, unlike the four Westminster parties their notional vote shares do not necessarily reflect their “true” 2019 results. This is because within each new constituency, only the chunk of it coming from a constituency (or constituencies) that these parties contested will have any votes associated with them.
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Kirsty Blackman
Majority: 14210 (28.3%)
Boundary Changes: Major
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Aberdeen North
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Kirsty Blackman
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBC
Independent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Aberdeen South constituency: Gilcomston (part of Midstocket and Rosemount ward)
Gains from current Gordon constituency: Remaining portion of Bridge of Don (ward) and Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone (wards) not already within the constituency
Loses to new Aberdeen South constituency: George Street and Harbour (ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Stephen Flynn
Majority: 5463 (10.9%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Aberdeen South
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Stephen Flynn
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Aberdeen North constituency: George Street and Harbour (Ward)
Loses to new Aberdeen North constituency: Gilcomston (part of Midstocket and Rosemount ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🔵Conservative: David Duguid
Majority: 2399 (5.2%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Banff and Buchan
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: David Duguid
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Moray constituency: Buckie (ward), Keith and Cullen (ward), the portion of Fochabers Lhanbryde (ward) east of the Spey
Loses to new Gordon and Buchan constituency: Turriff and District (ward), Maud, New Deer, Old Dear and Stuartfield (part of Central Buchan ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Neil Gray
Majority: 5324 (11.5%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Aidrie and Shotts
Sitting MP Status: Elected to Holyrood; 🟡SNP Anum Qaisar elected at by-election; Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Anum Qaisar
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Motherwell and Wishaw constituency: Cleland (part of Murdostoun ward) and Brannock (part of Mossend and Holytown ward)
Loses to new Coatbridge and Bellshill constituency: Coatdyke (portions of Airdrie Central and Coatbridge North wards)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: John Nicolson
Majority: 12727 (27.9%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Ochil and South Perthshire
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: John Nicolson
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Falkirk constituency: Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst (ward), Larbert (part of Bonnybridge and Larbert ward)
Gains from current Linlithgow and Falkirk East constituency: Grangemouth (ward)
Loses to new Dunfermline and Dollar constituency: Muckhart and Dollar (part of Clackmannanshire East ward)
Loses to new Perth and Kinross-shire constituency: Kinross-shire (ward), Almond and Earn (ward), Strathearn (ward), Muthill and Dunning (part of Strathallan ward)
Loses to new Stirling and Strathallan constituency: Auchterarder, Blackford and Gleneagles (part of Strathallan ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Dave Doogan
Majority: 6005 (10.6%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Angus
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Dave Doogan
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Dundee West constituency: Auchterhouse, Piperdam and Birkhill (part of Monifieth and Sidlaw ward)
Gains from current Ochil and South Perthshire constituency: Luncarty (part of Strathtay ward)
Gains from current Perth and North Perthshire constituency: Highland (ward), Blairgowrie and Glens (ward), Strathtay (ward) except Almondbank and Luncarty, and Strathmore (ward) except Scone
Loses to new Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency: Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim (ward) and Arbroath East and Lunan (ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Stewart Hosie
Majority: 10777 (20.7%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Dundee East
Sitting MP Status: Retiring
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Angus constituency: Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim (ward) and Arbroath East and Lunan (ward)
Loses to new Dundee Central constituency: Craigiebank and Linlathen (part of East End ward), Craigie and City Quay (part of Maryfield ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Brendan O’Hara
Majority: 4897 (9.7%)
Boundary Changes: Minor & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Argyll and Bute
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Brendan O’Hara
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Ross, Skye and Lochaber constituency: Morvern and Glencoe (part of Fort William and Ardnamurchan ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Allan Dorans
Majority: 2329 (5.0%)
Boundary Changes: None
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Allan Dorans
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Martyn Dey
Majority: 8671 (18.4%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Linlithgow and Falkirk East
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Martyn Dey
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Livingston constituency: Bridgend (part of Linlithgow ward), Winchburgh (part of Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh ward), Blackburn and Seafield (part of Whitburn and Blackburn ward)
Loses to new Alloa and Grangemouth constituency: Grangemouth (ward)
Loses to new Falkirk constituency: Slamannan, Avonbridge, Whitecross, Maddiston, California, Rumford, Wallacestone (part of Upper Braes ward) and Reddingmuirhead (part of Lower Braes ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🔵Conservative: John Lamont
Majority: 5148 (9.6%)
Boundary Changes: None
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: John Lamont
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Karl Rosie (2019 candidate)
Majority: 2788 (5.3%)
Boundary Changes: Major
Boundary Change Impact: SNP win over Lib Dem
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Sitting MP Status: 🟠Lib Dem Jamie Stone Reselected (Not Notional 2019 Winner)
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: Jamie Stone
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey constituency: Kirkhill (part of Aird and Loch Ness ward)
Gains from current Ross, Skye and Lochaber constituency: Black Isle (ward), Dingwall and Seaforth (ward), Beauly (part of Aird and Loch Ness ward), Garve, Strathpeffer plus Ullapool area of Wester Ross (part of Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Steven Bonnar
Majority: 5084 (11.1%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Steven Bonnar
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Airdrie and Shotts constituency: Coatdyke (portions of Airdrie Central and Coatbridge North wards)
Gains from current Motherwell and Wishaw constituency: Orbiston (part of Bellshill ward), Mossend and Milnwood (part of Mossend and Holytown ward)
Loses to new Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch constituency: Stepps, Chryston and Muirhead (ward)
Loses to new Rutherglen constituency: Bothwell and Uddingston (ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Neale Hanvey
Majority: 3220 (6.8%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Sitting MP Status: Changed Party to ⚫Alba & Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: Neale Hanvey
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Dunfermline and West fife constituency: Kingseat (part of Dunfermline North ward), Inverkeithing and North Queensferry (part of Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay ward)
Gains from current Glenrothes constituency: Chapel (part of Kirkcaldy North ward)
Loses to new Glenrothes and Mid Fife constituency: Kelty (part of Cowdenbeath ward), Lochgelly and Ballingry (part of Lochgelly, Cardenden and Benarty ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Stuart McDonald
Majority: 12005 (24.9%)
Boundary Changes: Minor & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Stuart McDonald
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Dunfermline and West Fife constituency: Stepps, Chryston and Muirhead (ward)
Loses to new Mid Dunbartonshire constituency: Lennoxtown and Milton of Campsie (part of Bishopbriggs North and Campsie ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🔵Conservative: Alister Jack
Majority: 1556 (3.0%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Dumfries and Galloway
Sitting MP Status: Retiring
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituency: The Crichton, Noblehill and Kingholm Quay (part of Nith ward)
Loses to new Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale constituency: Ae (part of Lochar ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🔵Conservative: David Mundell
Majority: 4338 (8.5%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: David Mundell
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Dumfries and Galloway constituency: Ae (part of Lochar ward)
Gains from current Lanark and Hamilton East constituency: Carstairs and Carnwath (part of Clydesdale East ward)
Loses to new Dumfries and Galloway constituency: The Crichton, Noblehill and Kingholm Quay (part of Nith ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Chris Law
Majority: 15221 (32.6%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Dundee West
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Chris Law
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Dundee East constituency: Craigiebank and Linlathen (part of East End ward), Craigie and City Quay (part of Maryfield ward)
Loses to new Angus and Perthshire Glens constituency: Auchterhouse, Piperdam and Birkhill (part of Monifieth and Sidlaw ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Douglas Chapman
Majority: 10073 (20.7%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Dunfermline and West Fife
Sitting MP Status: Retiring
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Ochil and South Perthshire constituency: Muckhart and Dollar (part of Clackmannanshire East ward)
Loses to new Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy constituency: Kingseat (part of Dunfermline North ward), Inverkeithing and North Queensferry (part of Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Lisa Cameron
Majority: 13169 (25.5%)
Boundary Changes: Minor & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Sitting MP Status: Changed Party to 🔵Conservative & Retiring
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Grant Costello
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Loses to new Hamilton and Clyde Valley constituency: Lesmahagow and Kirkmuirhill (part of Clydesdale South ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Tommy Sheppard
Majority: 11796 (22.6%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Edinburgh East
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Tommy Sheppard
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current East Lothian constituency: Musselburgh (ward), excluding Pinkie and Levenhall
Loses to new Edinburgh South constituency: Prestonfield (part of Southside and Newington ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Deidre Brock
Majority: 12983 (22.1%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Edinburgh North and Leith
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Deidre Brock
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Edinburgh West constituency: Muirhouse (part of Almond ward)
Loses to new Edinburgh West constituency: Craigleith and Dean Village (part of Inverleith Ward), Orchard Road area (Corstorphine and Murrayfield Ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🔴Labour: Ian Murray
Majority: 10795 (20.4%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Edinburgh South
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: Ian Murray
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Edinburgh East constituency: Prestonfield (part of Southside and Newington ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Joanna Cherry
Majority: 11982 (23.0%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Edinburgh South West
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: Joanna Cherry
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Edinburgh South constituency: Literally one block of flats by, pardon me, Cockmylane.
2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟠Lib Dem: Christine Jardine
Majority: 2888 (5.2%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Edinburgh North and Leith
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: Christine Jardine
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Edinburgh North and Leith constituency: Craigleith and Dean Village (part of Inverleith Ward), Orchard Road area (Corstorphine and Murrayfield Ward)
Loses to new Edinburgh North and Leith constituency: Muirhouse (part of Almond ward)
Notional 2019 Result
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: John McNally
Majority: 12578 (25.8%)
Boundary Changes: Major
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Falkirk
Sitting MP Status: Retiring
2024 Candidates
🟡SNP: TBC
🔴Labour: TBC
🔵Conservative: TBC
🟠Lib Dem: TBC
🟢Green: TBC
⚫Alba: TBC
🟣Reform UK: TBC
🟤Other: TBCIndependent: TBC
Summary of Boundary Changes
Gains from current Linlithgow and East Falkirk constituency: Slamannan, Avonbridge, Whitecross, Maddiston, California, Rumford, Wallacestone (part of Upper Braes ward) and Reddingmuirhead (part of Lower Braes ward)
Loses to new Alloa and Grangemouth constituency: Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst (ward), Larbert (part of Bonnybridge and Larbert ward)