Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
After last month’s Colinton and Fairmilehead shenanigans in Edinburgh, we’ve got another near-immediate return to a ward that already had a by-election recently. As part of a double bill for the city, Glasgow’s North East ward is heading back to the polls for also quite silly reasons, having elected Labour candidate Mary McNab in November. Except McNab never got to take up office, as she failed to resign her council job in the necessary time period, auto-disqualifying her. Although the Council and Labour both initially contested the disqualification, they eventually dropped the case, allowing a by-election to go ahead.
Although I’m only human and therefore have to admit to finding this quite funny just like I did Colinton and Fairmilehead, this is a very different circumstance. That was a case of genuinely unacceptable behaviour on the mayfly-esque councillor, whereas this is genuine human error with unfortunate consequences. I’m sure McNab has felt suitably mortified about the whole thing for the past few months, and to her credit she didn’t simply swan off to Dubai. As this is a near immediate rerun, much of the details and history below is merely lifted from the previous preview.
Ward Details
North East is one of 23 wards in Glasgow, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. This is a tremendously dull and unhelpful ward name (positively Inverclyde-ian) on the face of it, but it does actually somewhat fit the fact that being to the north east of the M8 is one of the common features of some otherwise quite dispersed communities. These include Provanmill, Blackhill, Hogganfield, Ruchazie, Craigend, Garthamlock and Easterhouse, as well as the tiny village of Gartloch, which is a redevelopment of a former hospital site. Boundary changes in 2017 removed the Robroyston, Barmulloch and Balarnock areas from the ward, and thus one of the councillors it had.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Glasgow Provan constituency that the SNP gained from Labour in 2016. It had previously been split between the Baillieston and Springburn constituencies, with the portion from Ruchazie westwards in Springburn. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Burke’s Glasgow North East constituency, but under the previous boundaries it was split along the same line as at Holyrood, with only the Ruchazie-inclusive segment in the prior North East seat. That seat was one of the few Labour regained from the SNP in 2017, whilst the Glasgow East seat the rest of the ward was in remained in SNP hands from their 2015 landslide victory.
Electoral History
Although the ward lost a chunk of its area in 2017, I’m considering that was probably demographically representative enough of the overall ward that it’s fine to compare right back to 2007, so long as you keep the caveat about changes in mind. Back then this was one of Labour’s super-strong wards and therefore they easily won three of the four seats, with the SNP picking up the final one by default. For 2012, it was the same again, including Burke’s first election.
The cut-down version of the ward saw the SNP pip Labour to win two seats, despite the fact the SNP’s original councillor Gerry Boyle had left and stood as an Independent. Labour reasserted themselves in 2022 though to take the double, and obviously then won the November 2024 by-election.
If we look at that history in terms of votes, the complete absence of support for any other party beyond the top two most years really stands out. Labour easily won three councillors each time, exceeding three quotas in 2012, and the SNP likewise easily got their sole councillor across the line each time. The most successful runs from other candidates came in 2017 when Conservative success was Labour’s undoing: Boyle also did well as an Independent, and his transfers were much more favourable to his former party than the Conservatives.
Although Labour’s lead over the SNP in 2022 was extremely narrow, with about three times as many Conservative as Green votes, the transfers were always going to go their way. At November’s by-election almost all of the returning major parties lost ground against surging Reform UK, in what is one of their most demographically-favourable parts of the city.
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Labour: Mary McNab
Change vs 2022 (notional): Labour Hold
Change vs vacating: Labour Hold
Turnout: 12.4% (-18.0)
Electorate: 15040
Valid: 1837 (98.3%)
Spoiled: 31 (1.7%)
Quota: 919
2 Continuing Councillors:
SNP: Ruairi KellyLabour: Sharon Greer
Candidates
Conservative: Thomas Haddow
TUSC: Anne McAllister
Green: Hayley McDonald
Reform UK: Robert McGregor
Lib Dem: Peter McLaughlinLabour: Mary McNabSNP: Kilian Riley
First Preferences
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Despite the short period between the last by-election and this one, we’ve got a fair mix of returns and new faces. The TUSC, Green and Lib Dem candidates are direct returns from November, whilst the ‘kipper is something of a perennial candidate for them, having stood in Greater Pollok and then the Linn by-election in 2022. Everyone else is fresh, as far as I can tell.
🔵Conservative: Kyle Cannon
🔴Labour: Debbie Duffy
🟤UKIP: Christopher Ho
🟣Reform UK: Rob Maddison
🟤TUSC: Anne McAllister
🟢Green: Hayley McDonald
🟡SNP: Donna McGill
🟠Lib Dem: Peter McLaughlin
Analysis
In theory, the most likely outcome is simply a repeat of November, with a Labour victory. I’m not so sure however. Labour have continued to slide in the polls since then, with another absolutely rotten result for them over the weekend. Reform on the other hand are only growing in support. Add in the circumstances of this vote and a likely even lower turnout and that might spell trouble for Labour.
Whilst it’s true that they held up better than expected last week in the Kirkintilloch by-election, even the least affluent bit of East Dunbartonshire is a very different kettle of fish. I think the SNP are in real contention this time around just due to the circumstances, but if they do take the seat it’ll be less a victory for them and more a loss for Labour. I wouldn’t put money on either party, so tossup it is.
Prediction
Labour-SNP Tossup.
2024 By-Election Results (Detailed Data)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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