Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
It’s another busy day for by-elections, as alongside one in Highland, Glasgow follows on from Aberdeenshire with a triple-bill. A fourth is due a couple of weeks later as well. In the North East ward, Labour councillor Maureen Burke has ended up MP for the similarly named Glasgow North East constituency. She’d represented the ward since 2012.
Ward Details
North East is one of 23 wards in Glasgow, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. This is a tremendously dull and unhelpful ward name (positively Inverclyde-ian) on the face of it, but it does actually somewhat fit the fact that being to the north east of the M8 is one of the common features of some otherwise quite dispersed communities. These include Provanmill, Blackhill, Hogganfield, Ruchazie, Craigend, Garthamlock and Easterhouse, as well as the tiny village of Gartloch, which is a redevelopment of a former hospital site. Boundary changes in 2017 removed the Robroyston, Barmulloch and Balarnock areas from the ward, and thus one of the councillors it had.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Glasgow Provan constituency that the SNP gained from Labour in 2016. It had previously been split between the Baillieston and Springburn constituencies, with the portion from Ruchazie westwards in Springburn. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Burke’s Glasgow North East constituency, but under the previous boundaries it was split along the same line as at Holyrood, with only the Ruchazie-inclusive segment in the prior North East seat. That seat was one of the few Labour regained from the SNP in 2017, whilst the Glasgow East seat the rest of the ward was in remained in SNP hands from their 2015 landslide victory.
Electoral History
Although the ward lost a chunk of its area in 2017, I’m considering that was probably demographically representative enough of the overall ward that it’s fine to compare right back to 2007, so long as you keep the caveat about changes in mind. Back then this was one of Labour’s super-strong wards and therefore they easily won three of the four seats, with the SNP picking up the final one by default. For 2012, it was the same again, including Burke’s first election.
The cut-down version of the ward saw the SNP pip Labour to win two seats, despite the fact the SNP’s original councillor Gerry Boyle had left and stood as an Independent. Labour reasserted themselves in 2022 though to take the double.
If we look at that history in terms of votes, the complete absence of support for any other party beyond the top two most years really stands out. Labour easily won three councillors each time, exceeding three quotas in 2012, and the SNP likewise easily got their sole councillor across the line each time. The most successful runs from other candidates came in 2017 when Conservative success was Labour’s undoing: Boyle also did well as an Independent, and his transfers were much more favourable to his former party than the Conservatives. Although Labour’s lead over the SNP in 2022 was extremely narrow, with about three times as many Conservative as Green votes, the transfers were always going to go their way.
Councillors and Key Stats
 3 Councillors, in order elected:
đź”´Labour: Maureen Burke
🟡SNP: Ruairi Kelly
đź”´Labour: Sharon Greer
Change vs 2017: +1 Labour, -1 SNP
Turnout: 30.4%
Electorate: 15312
Valid: 4501 (96.6%)
Spoiled: 158 (3.4%)
Quota: 1126
Candidates
đź”´Labour: Maureen Burke
đź”´Labour: Sharon Greer
🟡SNP: Ruairi Kelly
🟤TUSC: Annie McAllister
🟢Green: Iain McLarty
🟤Libertarian: Cam Milne
🟡SNP: Mandy Morgan
🔵Conservative: John White
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
All three of the Glasgow by-elections on this day have seven candidates, consisting of the Holyrood 5, Reform UK, and A N Other. Here that position is held by the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition. A couple of returning faces, with the TUSC candidate having stood here in 2022, whilst the Labour candidate stood in neighbouring Baillieston and the SNP another neighbour in East Centre.Â
🔵Conservative: Thomas Haddow
🟤TUSC: Anne McAllister
🟢Green: Hayley McDonald
🟣Reform UK: Robert McGregor
đźź Lib Dem: Peter McLaughlin
đź”´Labour: Mary McNab
🟡SNP: Kilian Riley
Analysis
Labour will win this one, simple as that. They had a lead in 2022, they haven’t had any problem holding those leads at the moment, and this is one of the weakest wards in the entire city for other parties, so don’t expect transfers to help anyone. I would wonder about Reform UK’s performance in this ward specifically, so keep an eye on that, but otherwise pretty much a foregone conclusion I reckon.
One little personal note for all of the by-elections on this date: I’ll be very busy at the end of this week, including a work commitment on the Friday which means I can’t take the day off as I normally would for such a busy by-election day. It’s possible I won’t be able to report on these live.
Prediction
Labour Win.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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