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SP26: North East Scotland Region Preview

Contents

Region Overview

Make sure to check out Ballot Box Scotland’s Holyrood Hub page for polling, analysis and updates ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

Region Map
Region Description

North East Scotland is almost entirely the same beast it was under the previous boundaries, as there’s only been one small adjustment between two constituencies within it. It’s therefore still an odd sort of half-n-half region, home to Scotland’s third and fourth largest cities, as well as some vast rural tracts. Thinking of it that way can be useful to understanding what’s going on, but there are further nuances underlying that.

Aberdeen and Dundee have a little bit of an Edinburgh and Glasgow vibe about them, in the sense that one is a bit more affluent and the other a traditional bastion of the working class. That dynamic will have contributed to the split all the way back in 2014, when like most of the country Aberdeen voted No to Independence whilst Dundee was the most strongly Yes voting area.

Similarly, there’s a bit of a difference between the more agriculturally rural constituencies versus those that cover historic fishing towns and villages. Again, we can look to a referendum to see how that impacts the politics of those areas. The UK Parliament’s Banff and Buchan constituency, which covered so many of those fisheries hubs, was estimated to be the only constituency in Scotland to vote for Brexit in 2016.

What to Watch For in 2026

Historically the North East was a very mixed part of Scotland, at times electing MPs from all of the SNP, Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour. Unlike the rest of Scotland, none of the constituencies within the North East were dyed in red after the 2024 UK General Election. Whilst the more urban constituencies came close to swinging Labour, the SNP held those whilst also gaining that Brexit-leaning far north east constituency. The only other party to win seats at that election were the Conservatives, who remained the leading force in the rest of rural Aberdeenshire.

Based on recent polling, that’s roughly what we might expect at Holyrood too – to the real detriment of proportionality. If the SNP don’t lose any of their constituencies, or even worse if they actually gain Aberdeenshire West, then combined with a severe drop in support they will massively exceed their fair share of seats. That could be especially damaging to Labour, who are at risk of being reduced to a single seat in that scenario, and the Greens and Lib Dems who may be blocked from seats they are fairly due.

Ironically enough, a saviour for those parties may come in the form of Reform UK. This is likely to be their strongest region in the country, to the extent that it’s not impossible they win the Banffshire and Buchan Coast constituency. Were they to do so, that’d be a small bit of pressure relief on the list seats, assuring another MSP their due seat. In 2021 this was the region Alba had the highest hopes for, aiming to re-elect former First Minister Alex Salmond but still came up well short. With Salmond dying 18 months out from the election, the party itself followed suit and was dissolved before it could stand again this year.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Notional 2021 Seat Winners

Constituency

Aberdeen Central: 🟡SNP
Aberdeenshire Deeside and North Kincardine: 🟡SNP
Aberdeen Donside: 🟡SNP
Aberdeenshire East: 🟡SNP
Aberdeenshire West: 🔵Conservative
Angus North and Mearns: 🟡SNP
Angus South: 🟡SNP
Banffshire and Buchan Coast: 🟡SNP
Dundee City East: 🟡SNP
Dundee City West: 🟡SNP

Regional List

1: 🔵Conservative
2: đź”´Labour
3: 🔵Conservative
4: 🔵Conservative
5: 🟢Green
6: 🔵Conservative
7: đź”´Labour

North East Scotland: 2021 Notional Results (Regional Vote)
North East Scotland: 2021 Notional Results (Constituency Vote)

Region History

1999 to 2011 Boundaries

Elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007 for North East Scotland were fought on boundaries that covered the whole of Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire and Dundee, coastal Angus, and small parts of Moray (around Keith) and Perth and Kinross (Invergowrie).

The first election for the North East immediately demonstrated the worth of using a fairer voting system: despite winning the most votes on both ballots, the SNP only won two constituencies to the Lib Dems’ three and Labour’s four. With the list seats then parcelled out four-to-three between the SNP and Conservatives, the balance of representation was much more in line with votes cast.

Despite a weakening position nationwide, the SNP managed to pick up the Aberdeen North and Dundee East constituencies from Labour, although they’d still have a net loss of one after the list seats were allocated. That went to the Greens, this region’s contribution to the “Rainbow Parliament”.

By the time of their first national victory in 2007 the SNP were becoming a juggernaut in the North East, further gaining Gordon from the Lib Dems and Dundee West from Labour, and still adding two list MSPs on top of their constituency haul. These net gains came from the Conservatives, who dropped a seat overall, and the Greens, who were ejected entirely.

2011 to 2026 Boundaries

Elections in 2011, 2016 and 2021 for North East Scotland were fought on boundaries that covered the whole of Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Angus and Dundee, plus a small portion of Moray (from Buckie to Cullen).

In hands-down the most impressive regional result in the history of the Scottish Parliament, not only did the SNP pull off a clean sweep of every constituency in the North East in 2011, but they were even due an 11th seat via the list. The collapsing Lib Dems meanwhile were reduced to just a single seat in the region, coming via the list, with the remaining list MSPs going three to Labour and two to the Conservatives.

The post-IndyRef realignment hit the North East of Scotland in a big way, that perhaps wasn’t clear just from the fact that the Conservatives gained the Aberdeenshire West constituency. The SNP’s loss of around 8% on the list vote was their worst drop anywhere, and came despite a mere 1% gain for the Greens, so slender they didn’t even win a seat. Overall that dip cost the SNP two MSPs in this region, compared to a more than doubling of Conservative numbers up to five seats, leaving just two for Labour and a sole Lib Dem.

Nothing changed in the North East in constituency terms in 2021, but the SNP continued to bleed support on the list vote to the extent they exceeded their fair share of seats in the region for the first time, at the Conservatives’ expense. The other party losing out from vote shifts were the Lib Dems, who swapped positions and thus their seat with the Greens.

Candidates

Candidates in both this section and individual constituencies are marked if they are an incumbent MSP:

  • (*C): Incumbent for that constituency, or equivalent if significantly impacted by boundary changes
  • (*OC): Incumbent for another constituency
  • (*L): Incumbent on the list
2026 Total Candidate Numbers
North East Scotland: 2026 Regional List Candidates

The six parties expected to win seats in the Scottish Parliament in 2026 are listed in order of national support in 2021. Remaining parties are in alphabetical order, and Independents listed last.

Candidates that are contesting both the List and Constituency ballot have their constituency noted after their name on the list.

  1. Stephen Flynn (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
  2. Gillian Martin (*C, Aberdeenshire East)
  3. Fatima Joji (Aberdeenshire West)
  4. Christian Allard
  5. Dawn Black (Angus North and Mearns)
  6. Miranda Radley
  7. Michael Hutchison
  1. Liam Kerr (*L, Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
  2. Douglas Lumsden (*L, Aberdeenshire East)
  3. Alexander Burnett (*C, Aberdeenshire West)
  4. James Adams (Banffshire and Buchan Coast)
  5. Stewart Whyte (Aberdeen Central)
  6. Hannah Powell (Aberdeen Donside)
  7. Tracey Smith (Angus North and Mearns)
  8. Jack Cruickshanks (Dundee City East)
  9. Abi Brooks (Dundee City West)
  1. Michael Marra (*L, Dundee City West)
  2. Heather Doran (Angus South)
  3. Lynn Thomson (Aberdeen Donside)
  4. Cheryl-Ann Cruikshank (Dundee City East)
  5. Simon Watson (Angus North and Mearns)
  6. Kate Blake (Aberdeenshire West)
  7. Matthew Lee (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
  8. Janine Langler (Aberdeenshire East)
  9. Brooke Ritchie (Banffshire and Buchan Coast)
  1. Maggie Chapman (*L)
  2. Esme Houston
  3. William Linegar
  4. Sylvia Hardie
  5. Charlotte Horne
  6. Remi Salvan
  7. Fah Asif
  8. Gordon Miller

Note: the originally selected top candidate, Guy Ingerson, was removed as an approved candidate shortly before nominations closed.

  1. Yi-pei Chou Turvey (Aberdeen Central)
  2. Michael Turvey (Aberdeen Donside)
  3. Tanvir Ahmad (Dundee City East)
  4. Jeff Goodhall (Aberdeenshire West)
  5. Mel Sullivan (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
  6. Martyn Knights (Angus North and Mearns)
  7. David Evans (Aberdeenshire East)
  1. Duncan Massey (Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine)
  2. Mark Simpson (Dundee City East)
  3. Claudia Leith (Aberdeen Donside)
  4. Jo Hart (Aberdeenshire West)
  5. Conrad Ritchie (Banffshire and Buchan Coast)
  6. John Crawley (Aberdeenshire East)
  7. Laurie Carnie (Angus North and Mearns)
  8. Arthur Keith (Dundee City West)
  9. Bill Reid (Angus South)
  1. Sarah Hashim
  1. Stephen Bowie (Aberdeen Donside)
  2. Konrad Rekas
  3. Brett Morrison
  4. Ronald Hardie
  5. Mark Mair
  1. Euan Morrice
  2. Susan Ettle
  3. Dave Bestwick
  4. Joanna Moore
  1. Richard Tallach

Note: Independent Green Voice are a front group for a bunch of Glasgow bampots, led by someone who was expelled from UKIP for alleged Holocaust denial. They are standing purely as a spoiler party in this election, targeting the legitimate Scottish Green Party, and their simple one candidate per region slate is further evidence of this dodgy dealing.

  1. Kenny Ross
  2. Brian Stewart
  1. Peter Ashby
  • Iris Leask
  • Marie Boulton

Aberdeen Central

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 6594 (20.8%)
Boundary Changes: None

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Jack Middleton
🔵Conservative: Stewart Whyte, L5
đź”´Labour: Jenny Laing
đźź Lib Dem
: Yi-pei Chou Turvey, L1
🟣Reform UK
: James Wyllie

Constituency Description

Sitting entirely within the Aberdeen City Council area, Aberdeen Central is exactly that: it’s the very core of Aberdeen. In addition to the city centre itself, around George Street, it also includes coastal-looking districts like Footdee, Pittodrie, Seaton and Tillydrone, and more inland neighbourhoods like Stockethill, Midstocket, Gilcomston and Broomhill.

The SNP have held this seat since their 2011 landslide. This is theoretically the easiest constituency in the region for Labour to gain, though that was in part down to the Greens standing here in 2021. If they don’t do so again (I’m currently assuming they will based on nothing but vibes and the fact this is their best seat in the region), that’ll help pad out the SNP’s margin somewhat.

Note: The originally selected SNP candidate for this seat, Kevin Stewart, announced that he was no longer standing for re-election, for health reasons, in September 2025.

The originally selected Reform UK candidate for this seat, Jordan Brown, claimed to local media he was not a candidate.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 1671 (4.3%)
Boundary Changes: No boundary changes, but Aberdeen section of name changed from Aberdeen South

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Stephen Flynn, L1
🔵Conservative: Liam Kerr (*L), L1
đź”´Labour: Matthew Lee, L7
đźź Lib Dem
: Mel Sullivan, L5
🟣Reform UK
: Duncan Massey, L1
⚪Independent
: Iris Leask, L1

Constituency Description

Split between Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Council areas, Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine is a largely but not exclusively affluent area, which may explain some of the politics at play here. The Aberdeen component covers the well-heeled villages along the River Dee, namely Peterculter, Milltimber and Cults, the more central Airyhall area, and Cove Bay. Torry, Kincorth and Nigg are all less posh bits of the city. The North Kincardine segment is mostly coastal, heading down through Marywell, Portlethen and Newtonhill. Notably, despite the complete absence of boundary changes, the Aberdeen qualifier in the name has changed from “South” to “Deeside”.

The SNP have held this seat since it was created in 2011. It mostly succeeded the original Aberdeen South, which was held by the Lib Dems the whole time, with MSP Nicol Stephen serving as the party’s Scottish leader and Deputy First Minister from 2005 to 2007. The Conservatives have done very well here since their revival in 2016, turning this into a pretty close marginal in 2021. The SNP’s current Westminster group leader, Stephen Flynn, is unlikely to need to worry about them this time, and the Kincardine component makes this even harder for Labour to gain.

However, on the assumption Flynn does win this, that will necessitate an election to the House of Commons in his Aberdeen South constituency. That’s partly, it must be said, his own daft fault. By having stated his intention to double job (“for a short period”, he claimed, when actually it could have been for up to three years) at roughly the exact moment an Elections Bill was going through Holyrood, he drew attention to the anomaly that only the Scottish Parliament allows that out of the devolved parliaments. It will not by the time of the 2026 election.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

Aberdeen Donside

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 9026 (25.1%)
Boundary Changes: None

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Jackie Dunbar (*C)
🔵Conservative: Hannah Powell, L6
đź”´Labour: Lynn Thomson, L3
đźź Lib Dem
: Michael Turvey, L2
🟣Reform UK
: Claudia Leith, L3
🟤Alliance to Liberate Scotland
: Stephen Bowie, L1

Constituency Description

Sitting entirely within the Aberdeen City Council area, Aberdeen Donside covers the northern reaches of the city. That includes some pretty central areas like Hilton, Northfield and Mastrick, then the less densely packed Bridge of Don, Danestone, Bucksburn, Dyce and Kingswells.

The SNP first won the previous Aberdeen North seat from Labour in 2003, and have held this pretty comfortably ever since. They’ve got such a thumping majority, and an even bigger one over Labour, it’d have to be an astonishingly bad day for the local SNP if they lost this one.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

Aberdeenshire East

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 1997 (5.1%)
Boundary Changes: Loses area around New Pitsligo, Strichen, New Leeds and Fetterangus to new Banffshire and Buchan Coast

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Gillian Martin (*C), L2
🔵Conservative: Douglas Lumsden (*L), L2
đź”´Labour: Janine Langler, L8
đźź Lib Dem
: David Evans, L7
🟣Reform UK
: John Crawley, L6

Constituency Description

Sitting entirely within the Aberdeenshire Council area, Aberdeenshire East covers parts of three of its subdivisions. First and foremost if covers all of Formartine, which includes areas like Ellon, Oldmeldrum and Turriff. The other two portions are fragments. On the one hand Garioch is quite a substantial one as it’s got Inverurie in it, which acts as the centre of that area. On the other hand Buchan is relatively marginally included, via the likes of Cruden Bay and Mintlaw. This is where the one slight change in constituency boundaries for this region arose, as there used to be a smidge more Buchan including Strichen in here.

The SNP have held this seat since they gained the previous Gordon constituency from the Lib Dems in 2007. That was a big coup for Alex Salmond, in his dramatic return to Holyrood as the SNP’s first First Minister. Despite a substantial loss of support in 2016, the fact the Lib Dems were trying to win this seat back kept the the SNP far ahead of the Conservatives. When the Liberals gave up in 2021, the Conservatives really closed the gap on the SNP to the extent that they very, very narrowly pipped them on the list vote. Given their polling has been catastrophically bad lately, they may not be troubling the SNP this time.

Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote

Aberdeenshire West

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🔵Conservative
Majority: 3390 (8.1%)
Boundary Changes: None

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Fatima Joji, L3
🔵Conservative: Alexander Burnett (*C), L3
đź”´Labour: Kate Blake, L6
đźź Lib Dem
: Jeff Goodhall, L4
🟣Reform UK
: Jo Hart, L4

Constituency Description

Sitting entirely within the Aberdeenshire Council area, Aberdeenshire West covers parts of three of its subdivisions. The extensive and sparsely populated Marr area is included in its entirety, including hubs at Huntly, Alford, Aboyne and Ballater. It also includes a substantial portion of Garioch, at Insch, Kemnay and Kintore. The final segment is a minority chunk of Kincardine, namely the furthest inland portions at Banchory and Drumoak.

The Conservatives have held this seat since they gained it from the SNP in 2016, who had themselves only won it when created in 2011. I suppose the prior West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine seat is the predecessor to this one, albeit I’m not sure this one carried over a majority of that one’s electorate. In any case, that had been Lib Dem for its entire history. If 2024 results are anything to go by, the Conservatives have a reasonable shot at holding this against the SNP. Given the risks of the SNP massively warping proportionality in this region, everyone else might be quietly hoping for their own sakes that they do.

Note: The originally selected SNP candidate for this seat, Glen Reynolds, stepped back for personal reasons after being selected.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

Angus North and Mearns

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 3509 (9.9%)
Boundary Changes: None

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Dawn Black, L5
🔵Conservative: Tracey Smith, L7
đź”´Labour: Simon Watson, L5
đźź Lib Dem
: Martyn Knights, L6
🟣Reform UK
: Laurie Carnie, L7
⚪Independent
: David Allen Neill

Constituency Description

Split between the Angus and Aberdeenshire Council areas, Angus North and Mearns is effectively three large towns and several smaller settlements. In Angus, the big towns are coastal Montrose and the inland historic county town of Forfar, though it’s also got Brechin and a big sweep of the very thinly populated Angus Glens. The Aberdeenshire end is the bulk of traditional Kincardineshire, most substantially Stonehaven but also covering the likes of Laurencekirk, Inverbervie and St Cyrus.

The SNP have held this seat since it was created in 2011. I’m considering that a completely new creation without a clear prior seat, as it drew substantially from three prior seats without any of them being dominant. Though it’s just within the bounds of being marginal, it feels like one of many seats where the moment for a Conservative gain has passed. It should therefore remain in SNP hands, despite the perhaps surprising retirement of the relatively young Mairi Gougeon, seen by many as a real talent in the party. 

Note: The originally selected Conservative candidate for this seat, Tess White, announced that she was no longer standing for re-election, for health reasons, in September 2025.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

Angus South

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 6117 (15.8%)
Boundary Changes: None

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Lloyd Melville
🔵Conservative: Angus MacMillan Douglas
đź”´Labour: Heather Doran, L2
đźź Lib Dem
: Isobel Knights
🟣Reform UK
: Bill Reid, L9

Constituency Description

Sitting entirely within the Angus Council area, Angus South combines some relatively large towns on the coast with one lobe of the Angus Glens around Kirriemuir, plus some other inland villages like Letham, Friockheim and Muirhead. The main centre here is undoubtedly Arbroath, famed for the 1320 declaration the asserted Scotland’s independent status to the Pope; appropriately enough, I recently discovered on a daytrip to the town that the local SNP MSP’s office sits directly opposite Arbroath Abbey where it was written. Carnoustie is weel-kent in its own right for its golf, whilst Monifieth is effectively an urban extension of Dundee by this point.

The SNP have held this seat since it was created in 2011, but given the significant reshaping of Angus constituencies this maps quite poorly to the prior Angus seat they’d held since Holyrood was set up. Given the size of the SNP’s lead over the Conservatives and the vestigial nature of the Labour vote, this should be a relatively secure one.

Note: The originally selected Conservative candidate for this seat, Tracey Smith, apparently transferred to the other Angus constituency after Tess White announced she was standing down.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

Banffshire and Buchan Coast

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 664 (1.9%)
Boundary Changes: Gains area around New Pitsligo, Strichen, New Leeds and Fetterangus from old Aberdeenshire East

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Karen Adam (*C)
🔵Conservative: James Adams, L4
đź”´Labour: Brooke Ritchie, L9
đźź Lib Dem
: Ian Bailey
🟣Reform UK
: Conrad Ritchie, L5
⚪Independent
: N D R McLennan

Constituency Description

Split between the Aberdeenshire and a small portion of the Moray Council areas, Banffshire and Buchan coast really is what it says: it’s primarily the coastal parts of the named areas. The Buchan portion is primarily centred on two big fishing towns at Peterhead and Fraserburgh, whilst the Aberdeenshire portion of Banffshire includes Banff itself plus the villages either side of it running from Portsoy to Gardenstown. The little bit of Moray that’s here runs from Buckie to Cullen, and was likewise historically in Banffshire. This has been marginally expanded inland with the boundary changes, adding the area around Strichen, once home to the late Alex Salmond.

The SNP have held this since it was created with the Scottish Parliament as Banff and Buchan in 1999. As Salmond’s old stomping grounds – though he only represented the Holyrood seat for about two years before packing it in – the SNP used to get silly amounts of support here, winning over two-thirds of the vote in 2011. Their support has crashed since then, to the extent that this was the second most marginal seat in 2021. Although Conservative chances are much reduced given their own collapse, the local SNP may be watching the rise of Reform with some concern.

If they were to seriously try for the constituency it’s not impossible they could win it – something that would, if nothing else, relieve some of the SNP’s anticipated pressure on proportionality. Their support will primarily come from the Conservatives, and one thing that may give the SNP reason to breathe a sigh of relief is that after Salmond’s niece made a big show of saying she’d stand here for Alba in her uncle’s memory, Alba leader Kenny MacAskill seems to have ruled out constituency contests entirely. Although Alba couldn’t even break 5% on the list vote here in their best constituency in 2021, any support they did pick up would have been at the SNP’s expense.

Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote

Dundee City East

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 13337 (41.1%)
Boundary Changes: None

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Stephen Gethins
🔵Conservative: Jack Cruickshanks, L8
đź”´Labour: Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank, L4
đźź Lib Dem
: Tanvir Ahmad, L3
🟣Reform UK
: Mark Simpson, L2
🟤TUSC
: Donald MacLeod
🟤Worker’s Party: Peter Ashby, L1

Constituency Description

Sitting entirely within Dundee City Council, Dundee City East unsurprisingly enough covers the city’s eastern half. This includes the affluent Broughty Ferry area, more middling areas like Stannergate and Ballumbie, plus classic working class districts around Craigie, Stobswell and Fintry. 

The SNP have held this since they gained it from Labour in 2003. As the most Pro-Independence area of Scotland in 2014, the SNP’s support in the city has typically been astronomically high. Their 2021 majority here is at absolutely silly levels, and although Labour ran them close at Westminster, it’s such a huge gap to close that it’s nigh on impossible to imagine them doing so. It’s therefore almost guaranteed that this will trigger a Westminster by-election for Stephen Gethins’ Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency.

Note: The originally selected Reform UK candidate for this seat, Stuart Niven, was suspended a day after being selected following questions in relation to his financial conduct. He had previously been disqualified as a company director.

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

Dundee City West

Constituency Map
Key Information

Notional 2021 Winner: 🟡SNP
Majority: 12919 (40.2%)
Boundary Changes: None

2026 Candidates

🟡SNP: Heather Anderson
🔵Conservative: Abi Brooks, L9
đź”´Labour: Michael Marra (*L), L1
đźź Lib Dem
: Daniel Coleman
🟣Reform UK
: Arthur Keith, L8
🟤TUSC
: Jim McFarlane

Constituency Description

Sitting entirely within Dundee City Council, Dundee City West unsurprisingly enough covers the city’s western half. In addition to the city centre, it’s also got the leafy districts around the University and the massive Ninewells Hospital along its southern portion. Further north is more traditionally working class, covering areas such as Menzieshill, Lochee, Ardler and Downfield.

The SNP have held this since they gained it from Labour in 2007. As the most Pro-Independence area of Scotland in 2014, the SNP’s support in the city has typically been astronomically high. Their 2021 majority here is at absolutely silly levels, and although Labour ran them close at Westminster, it’s such a huge gap to close that it’s nigh on impossible to imagine them doing so. If you’ve read this whole piece you might note that’s almost word-for-word the same as the other Dundee seat, but look, see how both majorities are in excess of 40%?

2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote

List Seat Allocation Process

To allocate list seats using the D’Hondt method, each party’s share of the vote is divided by one more than the number of seats they’ve won so far in the process. This is an important part of how the list seats then more fairly represent the diversity of views amongst voters. List votes cast for a party that has won lots of constituency seats are not “wasted”, they just aren’t needed to give their voters fair representation.

Starting Point

When allocating the first list seat, this starts with the number of constituencies won by each party:

  • The SNP won 9 constituencies, so their vote is divided by 10.
  • The Conservatives won 1 constituency, so their vote is divided by 2.
Seat 1

Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the first regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 2 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 3.

Seat 2

Since Labour have the highest total here, they receive the second regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 1 seat overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 2.

Seat 3

Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the third regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 3 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 4.

Seat 4

Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the fourth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 4 seat overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 5.

Seat 5

Since the Greens have the highest total here, they receive the fifth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 1 seat overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 2.

Seat 6

Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the sixth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 5 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 6.

Seat 7

Since Labour have the highest total here, they receive the seventh and final regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 2 seats overall. This completes the list seat allocation process.

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