As the 2026 Scottish Parliament approaches, keep up to date with all the latest polling and analysis on Ballot Box Scotland’s Holyrood Hub page!
With just a few weeks left to go until the big day, it’s time for the regular Ballot Box Battlegrounds series! Over this week, we’ll be taking a look at every constituency in Scotland considered marginal in 2021 terms – i.e. where the winner’s majority is below 10%. More than at any Holyrood election up until now, constituency winners really matter, because the SNP are expected to win so many more than their “ideal” proportional share if the voting system was working perfectly.
I’ve also picked out two bonus rounds worth of seats that are worth keeping an eye on even though they aren’t marginal. Each entry in the series will also look over one of the regions. Although that means three regions will go un-Battlegrounded, remember I’ve done regional previews (which also include some thoughts on every constituency) which are available here.
Note that for constituencies and regions impacted by boundary changes, I’m using my own notional calculations for 2021 results on the new boundaries. The reason we compare with 2021 rather than current projections is simple: even with boundary changes, we can be relatively sure what those results were. By contrast, projecting constituency results from national polling is always subject to substantial margins of error. Better then to compare with a known quantity than a rough and highly changeable estimate of current support.
In this final entry, and second of our two bonus rounds, we’ll be looking at some wildcard seats. All of these have majorities that theoretically place them within safe seat territory, but have potential for upsets or at least to set the stage for future gains.
#48: Inverness and Nairn
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: 
SNP
Majority: 11015 (21.5%)
Boundary Changes: Loses area around Grantown on Spey to new Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Region: Highlands and Islands
2026 Candidates
SNP: Emma Roddick (*L), L3
Conservative: Ruraidh Stewart, L4
Labour: Shaun Fraser, L7
Lib Dem: Neil Alexander
Reform UK: Fred Campbell, L4
Independent: Fergus Ewing (*C)
Advance UK: Steve Skerrett, L2
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
Kicking off our wildcard section, Inverness and Nairn has been an SNP seat since 1999 (originally as Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber), and with a 2021 majority of 21.5% over the completely doomed Conservatives, you might struggle to imagine it going anywhere else. The spanner in the works though is that the MSP for all that time, Fergus Ewing (son of the history-making Winnie Ewing), fell out spectacularly with his party during this term and is standing as an Independent.
Thus far, only three Independents have ever been elected in Holyrood’s history, all for very specific reasons. The late, great Margo MacDonald in Lothian was a weel-kent and weel-liked national figure. Denis Canavan in Falkirk West was a popular Labour MP who had the selection stitched up against him. Dr Jean Turner in Strathkelvin and Bearsden was fighting to keep a local hospital open. Not only is Fergus Ewing not his mother, but he’s not any of these people and isn’t facing any of their circumstances.
Instead, Ewing quit his party in a tantrum after it finally became irrefutable that he was a mere relic of the Old SNP, the party that existed before it even entered government. The party that was much more right-leaning and had an intense socially conservative streak. He never fit comfortably in the modern, social democratic and liberal SNP. You could not find an SNP MSP more out of tune with the median SNP voter in recent years than Ewing. To be clear, I am certainly not writing off a member of the country’s foremost political dynasty, who has represented his seat for nearly three decades. I am however making it very clear he has a mountain to climb.
Inverness is a city with a rapidly growing population that is younger and more diverse than the Highlands as a whole. My instinct is that population is more likely to want to stick with the SNP’s Emma Roddick on a party basis than Ewing on a personal one. Mild though they are, what boundary changes this seat has had mean it’s losing a rural portion around Grantown-on-Spey, which will further tilt the electoral power balance towards the city.
In addition, as a social conservative out to defeat the SNP, Ewing is competing with two other such options in Reform UK and the Conservatives. Throw in the fact that the Lib Dems are apparently trying hard in this seat – something that may represent them getting carried away and over-extending – and the anti-SNP vote could be very split. The Greens are also absent in the constituency this time and that vote is overwhelmingly likely to go SNP, thus overall Roddick is probably favoured. If Ewing does lose, that takes the number of class of 1999 MSPs still at Holyrood down to just 4, of which only 2 will have had continual service.
#49: Edinburgh Northern
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 9453 (22.0%)
Boundary Changes: Takes area within Forth and the north eastern part of Inverleith wards from old Edinburgh Northern and Leith; remainder of Inverleith ward from old Edinburgh Central; area around Silverknowes, Muirhouse and Blackhall from old Edinburgh Western
Region: Edinburgh and Lothians East
2026 Candidates
SNP: Euan HyslopConservative: Christopher Cowdy, L4Labour: Eleanor Ryan-Saha, L8
Green: Kayleigh Kinross-O’Neill, L4Lib Dem: Sanne Dijkstra-Downie, L1Reform UK: Andrew McLaughlin, L6Worker’s Party: Abu Meron, L2
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
This is effectively a completely new seat, pieced together from parts of three prior constituencies. It’s also created one of the most interesting contests in this election, one which the Lib Dems could hardly hide their glee with. On paper, this is another big SNP majority, which I estimate at 22.0%, against an almost even split between the three mainstream Pro-Union parties, with a narrow edge for the Lib Dems. Five years on, I have reason to believe that edge holds great potential.
Of those four major parties, the Lib Dems are the only party not currently suffering. They have a formidable election machine in Edinburgh, and are an obvious option for Pro-Union voters who want to stop the SNP. In addition, they were the most popular party across this area at the 2022 local elections, winning roughly 29% to the SNP’s 25%, 16% Conservative, 15% Labour and 13% Green. That’s a great position to start from, and why they were so excited to see this seat created.
They are also making an effort in this seat, and I’ve already had a couple of folk point out that my earlier positive assessments of their chances have made it onto local leaflets! On top of this, expect the SNP to be weakened by the Greens, as this is one of very few constituencies they are contesting. They were only absent in the Edinburgh Western component of this seat in 2021, which I figure only adds about 1.5% to their notional total, taking 0.8% off the SNP’s.
This isn’t a must-win for the Lib Dems in the sense that on current polling they’d probably be in line for a second MSP via the list anyway, but it is for the SNP. If they can’t hold this seat, that’s a massive blow to their hopes of winning a (completely unearned and undue) majority, as they can only afford to lose a maximum of 8 of the 73 constituencies.
#56: Strathkelvin and Bearsden
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 11484 (24.8%)
Boundary Changes: None
Region: West
2026 Candidates
SNP: Denis Johnston, L8Conservative: Pam Gosal (*L), L3Labour: Colette McDiarmid, L8Lib Dem: Adam Harley, L1Reform UK: Faten Hameed
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
We’re really climbing up the notionally safe seat stakes here, as we’re more than two-thirds of the way down the list of constituencies by majority. Strathkelvin and Bearsden has been won by the SNP at every election of their dominant period, though it has a unique place in Holyrood history as one of just two constituencies to have ever elected an Independent. Dr Jean Turner’s campaigning to save Stobhill Hospital saw her win a shock victory in the 2003 “Rainbow Parliament”.
Despite a substantial overlap with the UK-level East and subsequently Mid Dunbartonshire constituency that they’ve frequently held, the Lib Dems have never been in contention for this one. This year, apparently, they are giving it a real go and pushing hard to win it. You’ll by now be noticing a bit of a theme for this wildcard round which is “seats the Lib Dems are going hammer and tongs in”. That shouldn’t be a surprise in the sense that of all the parties in the UK, the Lib Dems are most known for making big splashes in a relatively small number of seats. That’s historically been the only way for them to make an impact in FPTP-only elections.
Despite that, and a decent 2021 starting point, it’s possible this will be beyond them. The name of the constituency is slightly misleading, as it’s really “Strathkelvin and Half of Bearsden”. The other half is in Clydebank and Milngavie. This is what limits the comparability and potential relative to the UK-level Mid Dunbartonshire seat. Bearsden and Milngavie is where Lib Dem support is strongest, so only having one third of that area in this seat is bad news for them.
Regardless, Labour are clearly spooked, as they’ve been putting out an anti-Lib Dem leaflet locally, comedically pointing out that they’ve won as many elections in this seat as the SNP have whilst the Lib Dems have won zero. They appear to be glossing over the fact that one of those is a by-election so their “real” election count is below the SNP’s, but that’s another matter entirely. One possibility is that the squabbling between Labour and the Lib Dems simply secures the SNP’s position here.
#68: Glasgow Southside
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 12705 (30.0%)
Boundary Changes: Loses eastern portion of Govan ward to new Glasgow Central; gains Craigton area from old Glasgow Pollok; gains remaining area of Langside ward from old Glasgow Cathcart
Region: Glasgow
2026 Candidates
SNP: Kaukab Stewart (*OC), L3Conservative: Ross Hutton, L3Labour: Rashid HussainGreen: Holly Bruce, L2Lib Dem: Rachel Park, L4Reform UK: Gordon Millar, L8Common: Kamran Butt, L1Independent: Arzoo Waqqar Abdhullah
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
You might think things are getting silly here, as Glasgow Southside is one of the safest seats anywhere in the country, with a staggering 30% majority. The scale of SNP success here should hardly be a surprise given this was Nicola Sturgeon’s seat. What makes it so interesting is the combination of her retirement and substantial boundary changes. These have brought in areas from the former Glasgow Cathcart around Langside and Battlefield that are amongst the best in Scotland for the Greens.
This has effectively displaced Glasgow Kelvin as their best prospect in the city, albeit not as the best seat nationwide – that’s moved over to Edinburgh Central. The Greens had first made a serious run at Kelvin in 2016, shocking the local Labour branch by pushing them into third place. Hopes of a 2021 breakthrough were shattered by the pandemic, which meant they couldn’t run the kind of ground campaign necessary to win it. It’s now been split four ways and may not be particularly winnable.
This seat however looks very good for the Greens, as can be seen in the notional regional result, where they are barely behind Labour. My estimate for if they had been on the constituency ballot in 2021 is around 19%, and that would have been without any intention to try and win it. They are putting effort in this time, setting up an accidental Kelvin rematch, as it’s outgoing Kelvin MSP Kaukab Stewart standing for the SNP here. Local Green councillor Holly Bruce may not be able to win this time around, but it could be one that’s ripe for a 2031 gain if the party keep working it.
#71: Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 1702 (34.3%)
Boundary Changes: Gains area around Grantown on Spey from old Inverness and Nairn
Region: Highlands and Islands
2026 Candidates
SNP: Eilidh Munro, L5Conservative: Helen Crawford, L3Labour: Isla McCay, L1Lib Dem: Andrew BaxterReform UK: John Whitton, L6Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Laura Hansler, L4
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Analysis
The the very last entry in this election’s Battlegrounds series, we’re only truly silly territory Yes, you read that number right: 71. In pure majority terms this is the third-safest seat in the whole country, behind only the two Dundee constituencies. I did say this was a wildcard round!
This has made it in for two reasons. Number one is that the Lib Dems won the equivalent Westminster seat in 2024, and I know for a fact they are gunning for this one too. As I noted in Inverness and Nairn, I do wonder if they are over-extending themselves a little, as they are similarly trying for Argyll and Bute, or in other words 6 of the 8 Highlands and Islands seats in total. That’s pretty bold and would be hugely proportionality-busting if they achieved it.
Reason two is that Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes is surprisingly standing down. Although she’d initially been re-selected, she later announced she was packing it in. Personal votes are rare in politics but Forbes had almost certainly generated at least a little bit of such a vote. I’m told there was a certain amount of “how dare those awful Central Belters have it in for our local Highland lass!” during the SNP’s 2023 leadership contest. As one of the gay people Ms Forbes doesn’t think should have the same right to marriage she does, I have been pretty exasperated by attempts to delegitimise our entirely valid critiques of her political views, but people think what they think I suppose.
In any case, her absence may further open the door for the Lib Dems. I’m still not massively convinced this seat will see the absolutely eye-popping swings necessary to flip it, but I’m not quite willing to laugh the idea off either. Indeed it’d be a very brave man who rubbished the notion of a Lib Dem win in the rural Highlands. Keep an eye on this one is all I’m saying, and always remember that local circumstances can throw up surprises.
Regional Battleground: Central Scotland and Lothians West
Region Map
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Notional 2021 List MSPs
1: Labour
2: Conservative
3: Labour
4: Conservative
5: Labour
6: Green
7: Conservative
Notional 2021 List Seat 7
Central Scotland and Lothians West: 2026 Regional List Candidates
The six parties expected to win seats in the Scottish Parliament in 2026 are listed in order of national support in 2021. Remaining parties are in alphabetical order, and Independents listed last.
Candidates that are contesting both the List and Constituency ballot have their constituency noted after their name on the list.
- Pauline Stafford (Bathgate)
- Neil Gray (*C, Airdrie)
- Toni Giugliano
- Clare Adamson (*C, Motherwell and Wishaw)
- Callum Cox
- Steven Bonnar (Uddingston and Bellshill)
- Stacey Devine
Note: The original 7th placed candidate, Tracey Carragher, was withdrawn shortly before the close of nominations in relation to allegations about her conduct.
- Meghan Gallagher (*L, Uddingston and Bellshill)
- Lewis Stein (Falkirk East and Linlithgow)
- Neil Benny (Falkirk West)
- Keith Allan (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth)
- Andy Bruce (Coatbridge and Chryston)
- Peter Heggie (Bathgate)
- Damian Doran-Timson (Almond Valley)
- Bob Burgess (Motherwell and Wishaw)
- Euan Blockley (Airdrie)
- Mark Griffin (*L, Uddingston and Bellshill)
- Jenny Young (Bathgate)
- Kieron Higgins (Coatbridge and Chryston)
- Siobhan Paterson (Falkirk East and Linlithgow)
- James McPhilemy (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth)
- Suzanne Macleod (Airdrie)
- Ayeshah Khan (Motherwell and Wishaw)
- Jordan Stokoe (Almond Valley)
- Gillian Mackay (*L)
- Claire Williams
- Cameron Glasgow
- Anne McCrossan
- Paul McGarry (Falkirk East and Linlithgow)
- Lucy Smith (Falkirk West)
- Caron Lindsay (Almond Valley)
- Stephen Harte (Bathgate)
- Brian Howieson (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth)
- Daniel Mancini (Coatbridge and Chryston)
- Jenni Lang (Motherwell and Wishaw)
- Graham Simpson (Airdrie)
- Mandy Lindsay (Coatbridge and Chruston)
- Amanda Bland (Falkirk East and Linlithgow)
- Richard Fairley (Falkirk West)
- David McLennan (Bathgate)
- Duncan Macmillan (Motherwell and Wishaw)
- Steve Grant (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth)
- Malcolm Jones (Almond Valley)
- George Hobbins (Uddingston and Bellshill)
- John Jo Leckie (Airdrie)
- Mark Tunnicliff
- Greig McArthur (Motherwell and Wishaw)
- Alan McManus (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth)
- David Baird
- Graham Fraser
- Steve Arnott
- David Richardson
- Leo Lanahan
- Norma McLachlan Diffin
- Ailish Ann Lanahan
- Julie McAnulty
- James Stewart
- Lukasz Furmaniak
- Collette Bradley
- Lewis Clark
- Conor Gibley
- Neil Wilson
- Stephen Paul Hollis
- Margaret Garbutt
- Abdul Dean
Analysis
One of the most radically transformed regions, Central Scotland has been transmuted into Central Scotland and Lothians West. Previously home to the majority of South Lanarkshire, with the loss of East Kilbride and Hamilton, only Uddingston clings on. In place of those two constituencies, we have West Lothian.
This doesn’t change the total number of seats won by each party in 2021, but it does change the order in one vital way: it massively pads out Green Co-Leader Gillian Mackay’s vote. In Central as was, she scraped the seventh and final seat by a mere 107 votes. In this version, she takes the sixth seat, and has a roughly 2,000 vote buffer against Labour knocking her out. Basically, West Lothian is a lot better for the Greens than South Lanarkshire was, and slightly worse for Labour.
The Greens will desperately need that breathing space, given the expectation that the SNP win every constituency in this region again. Without any increase in their vote they’d actually lose that seat from the SNP’s proportionality-warping effects, but with an increase they should avoid the indignity of losing one of their leaders, though they can’t take it for granted.
Reform are the other party to watch here, because this region is almost entirely the kind of post-industrial areas they have been doing quite well in lately. In fact the Reform UK win thus far in Scotland (excluding their MEP when they were the Brexit Party), at a council by-election for Whitburn and Blackburn, was in this region. As with other parties, the expected surplus of SNP constituency wins could block them winning a third (or even fourth) MSP in this region, and in some respects it’s their presence on the constituency ballot that could really be damning Labour.
A party not to watch but worth mentioning briefly are the Lib Dems. They will not win a seat here. The shoots of revival for them are very concentrated in areas of existing strength, and barring a Linlithgow councillor, that does not describe this region. Even were they to creep across 5%, they’d be done in by the SNP’s over-representation.
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