First non-Survation poll of the year shows a snapping back to a Pro-Union lead, YouGov-worsts this term for SNP and Greens, best Labour seat projection since election, and improbably strong Alba and Reform UK figures that make the hypothetical projections quite distinct.
The departure of a dissatisfied SNP councillor opens the door for the Lib Dems to take complete control of this ward.
The first by-election of 2023 looks most favourable to the SNP, but recent patterns and polling mean a Labour resurgence shouldn’t be written off.
The second poll by the same pollster in quick succession finds very little different on election VI – but gives the largest lead for the Union in eight months.
The first poll of 2023 (okay, mostly 2022, but it ended this year…) finds very little change compared to the previous, though with enough of a small Conservative recovery to draw clearly back ahead of the Greens.
One final bonus piece of 2022 election coverage shows just how much of a political patchwork the Scottish electorate is, with precious few areas uncomplicatedly supportive of one bloc of parties or the other.
Scotland continues to go through unsettled constitutional times, as the year concludes with Independence in the lead following the Supreme Court judgement. There are challenges enough to go around for both sides on this front, as Scots oppose a “de facto referendum” yet think the Scottish Government should be able to call a real one.
2022 started uncomfortably for the Conservatives and has ended miserably for them, as Labour have firmly moved back into second place. The SNP meanwhile experience a mild but typical mid-term slump that nonetheless translates to a majority, whilst the Greens experience a record streak of polling and Lib Dems flirt with a minor recovery.
One final (hopefully) poll for 2022 bucks recent trends, giving a lead for the Union on the constitutional question and far less pain for the Conservatives than other pollsters.
There’s not a lot to be gleaned from by-elections in a year where we had the full set, but what little data there is builds on polling trends showing Labour gaining at the Conservatives’ expense especially.
