BBS’ first ever poll finds Labour’s best polling of the term so far, putting them well clear of the Conservatives in both parliaments. The constitutional question continues to tilt narrowly towards the Union, whilst questions on the voting system show strong support for PR at Westminster and ending Scotland’s odd “three systems, one country” status.
With just over a month to go until the local elections, nominations have closed, giving us the 2548 candidates, duking it out in 355 wards, in 32 councils, for 1226 seats. Or rather, the 2530 going for 1205, given some uncontested wards…
A third ComRes in a row continues to show a close contest for second place at Holyrood, this time to Labour’s narrow advantage, and still strong Green figures. The constitutional question remains tight but with a Union lead.
Aberdeenshire is set to be Scotland’s most interesting contest, as Conservatives hope to make up for 2017’s under-nomination, the SNP bounce back from a low, Lib Dems try to stave off decline, and Labour and the Greens face likely ejection.
Glasgow’s biggest city is likely to remain an SNP lead, though Labour could narrow the gap. The Conservatives meanwhile are at serious risk of losing third place to the Greens.
Don’t expect anything but a Conservative lead in what is a strong council for them, and the SNP’s weakest on the mainland. The Labour vote may be the one to watch here, both in terms of how it shifts at top level and where transfers go.
Transfers helped deliver an SNP-Labour tie in seats in 2017, but boundary changes may have helped make enough of a difference for the SNP to pull ahead this time.
Scotland’s third largest city has become increasingly politically diverse, and may see at least one Green councillor for the first time – whilst a term-long suspension for Labour’s councillors offers a truly weird backdrop for that party.
East Dunbartonshire loves a chaotic result under STV, making it one of the least predictable contests in the country.
Two things seem certain in Fife – firstly, that the SNP will remain in the lead, and secondly that the Lib Dems will remain dominant in North East Fife. What happens in terms of seats is less clear, with few obvious prospects for SNP and Labour gains against likely weakened Conservatives.
