A third pollster in a row suggests Labour are more popular than the Conservatives, whilst finding the worst SNP figures yet since last year’s election. As has been the norm lately, the balance on the constitutional question continues to tilt in the Union’s favour.
Labour’s number of candidates and wards contested are at their lowest level since STV was introduced, but they may nonetheless be in a position to once again become Scotland’s second party at local government level.
The Conservatives had a record result in 2017 – so good they hadn’t stood enough candidates to fully benefit. They aren’t making that mistake again, but nonetheless face the credible prospect of slipping back into third place.
Scotland’s dominant party haven’t yet proven quite as dominant at local elections. They’ll be hoping to change that this year, but some potential under-nominations may have hampered some of their prospects for growth.
Part two of BBS’ exclusive and first-ever poll finds the SNP could be on track for a record local result – but almost invisible Independents and weak Greens suggest a poll worth taking with a barrel of salt. Voters generally find their local councils effective, and largely think they are the right size.
BBS’ first ever poll finds Labour’s best polling of the term so far, putting them well clear of the Conservatives in both parliaments. The constitutional question continues to tilt narrowly towards the Union, whilst questions on the voting system show strong support for PR at Westminster and ending Scotland’s odd “three systems, one country” status.
With just over a month to go until the local elections, nominations have closed, giving us the 2548 candidates, duking it out in 355 wards, in 32 councils, for 1226 seats. Or rather, the 2530 going for 1205, given some uncontested wards…
A third ComRes in a row continues to show a close contest for second place at Holyrood, this time to Labour’s narrow advantage, and still strong Green figures. The constitutional question remains tight but with a Union lead.
Aberdeenshire is set to be Scotland’s most interesting contest, as Conservatives hope to make up for 2017’s under-nomination, the SNP bounce back from a low, Lib Dems try to stave off decline, and Labour and the Greens face likely ejection.
Glasgow’s biggest city is likely to remain an SNP lead, though Labour could narrow the gap. The Conservatives meanwhile are at serious risk of losing third place to the Greens.
