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Author: Ballot Box Scotland

Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Panelbase 29th of June – 1st of July 2022

An extremely delayed release of data for this poll means this is an extremely light-touch piece, published on the 28th of August only so there is no gap in my record.

by Ballot Box Scotland•July 8, 2022September 3, 2022
Poll Analysis: ComRes 23rd – 28th of June 2022
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: ComRes 23rd – 28th of June 2022

As the First Minister fires (or, perhaps, misfires) the starting gun for a prospective second Independence referendum, polling finds the constitutional question remains firmly stuck on an almost even split. Labour meanwhile continue to cement their position as second most popular party ahead of beleaguered Conservatives.

by Ballot Box Scotland•July 1, 2022November 9, 2023
By-Election Preview: Eilean Siar Double 30th of June 2022
Posted in
  • By-elections

By-Election Preview: Eilean Siar Double 30th of June 2022

The first by-elections of the term take us to the Western Isles, where a shocking number of uncontested wards meant many voters didn’t even get to go to the polls in May.

by Ballot Box Scotland•June 23, 2022June 26, 2022
LE22: A Proportional Pickle
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: A Proportional Pickle

A long-standing BBS bugbear is that STV isn’t quite the proportional dream many claim it to be, even if it’s far better than FPTP. This piece looks at how different things could be with a more proportional system.

by Ballot Box Scotland•June 19, 2022June 19, 2022
Poll Analysis: YouGov 18th – 23rd of May 2022
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: YouGov 18th – 23rd of May 2022

Slightly delayed coverage of a poll that continues to show positive figures for the SNP-Green government, whilst Labour cement their current second place against struggling Conservatives. The unsettled constitutional question begins to look more settled this time, with figures fitting to the 2014 status quo.

by Ballot Box Scotland•June 6, 2022June 6, 2022
LE22: The Precarious Position of Local Government
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: The Precarious Position of Local Government

The Shape of Scotland in 2022 Composition of Administrations Today marks four weeks on from the … LE22: The Precarious Position of Local GovernmentRead more

by Ballot Box Scotland•June 2, 2022June 2, 2022
LE22: Diving into the Detail
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: Diving into the Detail

In the (just over a) week since the local elections, I’ve been plugging away at data … LE22: Diving into the DetailRead more

by Ballot Box Scotland•May 14, 2022May 15, 2022
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 26th – 29th of April 2022
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Panelbase 26th – 29th of April 2022

A no-frills analysis piece with no actual analysis, just to make sure there’s no gap in the record! (This is due to full publication of the poll data taking a very long time, and being consumed by local election coverage.)

by Ballot Box Scotland•May 13, 2022May 13, 2022
LE22: How’s Your Spread? (Part 2)
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: How’s Your Spread? (Part 2)

The second part of a wider analysis of results across the country takes a look at the spread of votes,

by Ballot Box Scotland•May 12, 2022January 28, 2023
LE22: How’s Your Spread? (Part 1)
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: How’s Your Spread? (Part 1)

The first half of a detailed look at each party’s performance across the country measures the presence of the five Holyrood parties in terms of wards and councils with representation.

by Ballot Box Scotland•May 10, 2022May 10, 2022

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  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 1 day

    Headline here is about Highland's licensing committee but one of these four, Wick and East Caithness Independent councillor Willie MacKay, has also quit as councillor entirely, continuing Highland Council's almost permanent election footing.
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 3 days

    By-Election Result: Peterhead South and Cruden

    Reform struggle in their strongest Holyrood patch, falling behind the Conservatives at the final stage against the ultimately victorious SNP.
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 4 days

    Looking forward to seeing the transfers on this one, because RUK + CON + IND RT + SFP is 53.3% for the Right, so in theory a path was there for RUK or CON win, but didn't happen.

    Pre-election some had suggested I may have been wrong to have the SNP included in my three-way tossup call; vindication!
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 4 days

    Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022):

    SNP: 742 (36.5%, -10.0)
    RUK: 465 (22.9%)
    CON: 432 (21.3%, -20.0)
    IND JR: 150 (7.4%)
    IND RT: 132 (6.5%)
    LD: 56 (2.8%, -9.4)
    SFP: 54 (2.7%)

    SNP elected stage TBC. (No chart as I'm in office for day job atm!)
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 6 days

    By-election today for Aberdeenshire's Peterhead South and Cruden ward. A historic SNP stronghold, in an area that swung hard to the Conservatives then Reform = not the easiest outcome to predict!

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