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Author: Ballot Box Scotland

Poll Analysis: Survation 28th – 29th of September 2022
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Survation 28th – 29th of September 2022

As is tradition, we wait for two weeks of intense, dramatic UK political events before we get any Scotland-only polls, and three come along at once. The first of these to finish fieldwork finds hands down the strongest Labour figures since before the 2015 General Election, and Greens tied on seats with the Conservatives.

by Ballot Box Scotland•October 6, 2022January 10, 2023
By-Election Result: Kintyre and the Islands
Posted in
  • By-elections

By-Election Result: Kintyre and the Islands

Strong support on his home island led an Independent to make a quick return to the council, having previously been elected in 2017 as a Conservative.

by Ballot Box Scotland•October 4, 2022October 3, 2022
By-Election Preview: Buckie (Moray) 3rd of November 2022
Posted in
  • By-elections

By-Election Preview: Buckie (Moray) 3rd of November 2022

A surprise Lib Dem elected uncontested in May resigned over the summer, triggering both this by-election and some deeply unedifying behaviour that it would do well to reflect on.

by Ballot Box Scotland•October 3, 2022October 3, 2022
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 17th – 19th of August 2022
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Panelbase 17th – 19th of August 2022

Expect this to be the last analysis piece for a Panelbase/Sunday Times poll, unless and until the Sunday Times sort out their bizarre refusal to publicly report Holyrood figures.

by Ballot Box Scotland•September 3, 2022September 3, 2022
By-Election Preview: Kintyre and the Islands (Argyll and Bute) 29th of September 2022
Posted in
  • By-elections

By-Election Preview: Kintyre and the Islands (Argyll and Bute) 29th of September 2022

The sad passing of an Independent councillor triggers the first “ordinary” by-election of the 2022-27 council term. What looks on the face of it to be an SNP-Lib Dem-Independent contest may be less rosy for the Lib Dems if their councillor of three decades has become reliant on his personal vote.

by Ballot Box Scotland•August 29, 2022September 29, 2022
LE22: Visualising Scotland
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: Visualising Scotland

What’s an election without a good map? Here at Ballot Box Scotland, we’ve got more maps than you can shake a stick at, and here’s a few more to finally wrap up Local Election 2022 coverage.

by Ballot Box Scotland•August 7, 2022August 7, 2022
LE22: Party Preference Patterns
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: Party Preference Patterns

Whereas First Past the Post allows commentators to treat voters as neat, predictable blocs shuffling between obvious parties, May’s STV results show that voters love to be messy and self-contradictory.

by Ballot Box Scotland•August 6, 2022August 6, 2022
LE22: STV, it’s only 1, 2, 3?
Posted in
  • Local Elections 2022

LE22: STV, it’s only 1, 2, 3?

The transferrable nature of STV is touted as one of its great advantages, but just how much use are voters getting out of that power? Perhaps less than you’d think.

by Ballot Box Scotland•August 5, 2022January 11, 2024
By-Election Preview: North Isles (Shetland) 4th of August 2022
Posted in
  • By-elections

By-Election Preview: North Isles (Shetland) 4th of August 2022

An early by-election to fill a seat left vacant in May is guaranteed to go to an Independent.

by Ballot Box Scotland•August 1, 2022September 20, 2022
By-Election Results: Eilean Siar Double
Posted in
  • By-elections

By-Election Results: Eilean Siar Double

The first by-elections of 2022, unfinished business from May, easily elected two Independents, though the Lib Dems emerged with a surprise second place in their first CNES appearance since 2007.

by Ballot Box Scotland•July 10, 2022July 29, 2022

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BlueSky Latest Posts

  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 1 day

    Headline here is about Highland's licensing committee but one of these four, Wick and East Caithness Independent councillor Willie MacKay, has also quit as councillor entirely, continuing Highland Council's almost permanent election footing.
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 3 days

    By-Election Result: Peterhead South and Cruden

    Reform struggle in their strongest Holyrood patch, falling behind the Conservatives at the final stage against the ultimately victorious SNP.
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 5 days

    Looking forward to seeing the transfers on this one, because RUK + CON + IND RT + SFP is 53.3% for the Right, so in theory a path was there for RUK or CON win, but didn't happen.

    Pre-election some had suggested I may have been wrong to have the SNP included in my three-way tossup call; vindication!
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 5 days

    Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022):

    SNP: 742 (36.5%, -10.0)
    RUK: 465 (22.9%)
    CON: 432 (21.3%, -20.0)
    IND JR: 150 (7.4%)
    IND RT: 132 (6.5%)
    LD: 56 (2.8%, -9.4)
    SFP: 54 (2.7%)

    SNP elected stage TBC. (No chart as I'm in office for day job atm!)
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 6 days

    By-election today for Aberdeenshire's Peterhead South and Cruden ward. A historic SNP stronghold, in an area that swung hard to the Conservatives then Reform = not the easiest outcome to predict!
Last updated 10 minutes ago

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