2022 started uncomfortably for the Conservatives and has ended miserably for them, as Labour have firmly moved back into second place. The SNP meanwhile experience a mild but typical mid-term slump that nonetheless translates to a majority, whilst the Greens experience a record streak of polling and Lib Dems flirt with a minor recovery.
There’s not a lot to be gleaned from by-elections in a year where we had the full set, but what little data there is builds on polling trends showing Labour gaining at the Conservatives’ expense especially.
One final look back across the sum of the by-elections in this local government term. Some light-hearted awards balance out some more thoughtful personal reflections.
For one final look back at 2021, we’re looking at the constitutional twists and turns in a year that started with a lead for Independence and ends with one for the Union.
The months following an election are never the busiest time for polling, but what there is to end the year finds everyone else at Holyrood gaining at least a little at the Conservatives’ expense.
STV proved typically messy throughout 2021, with a mighty 22 by-elections giving the SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems electoral gains since 2017, whilst Labour fell backwards.
The first sustained polling lead for Independence, with as many Yes-favourable polls in 2020 as in the whole nine years previously, adds to the large pile of “reasons 2020 was a remarkable year”.
A busy year in polling ends with the SNP clear leaders and (currently) on track for a majority, gains for the Greens, weakening Conservatives and Lib Dems, and a degree of stabilisation for Labour.
Looking back over an exhausting year, the first part of the 2020 review takes us through the 10 council by-elections held across Scotland.
It’s been a dramatic year in politics in the UK, and even going back to the start of the year feels like a completely different world.
