Scotland’s dominant party haven’t yet proven quite as dominant at local elections. They’ll be hoping to change that this year, but some potential under-nominations may have hampered some of their prospects for growth.
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BBS EXCLUSIVE Local Election 2022 Poll: Survation 24th – 28th of March 2022
Part two of BBS’ exclusive and first-ever poll finds the SNP could be on track for a record local result – but almost invisible Independents and weak Greens suggest a poll worth taking with a barrel of salt. Voters generally find their local councils effective, and largely think they are the right size.
BBS EXCLUSIVE Poll Analysis: Survation 24th – 28th of March 2022
BBS’ first ever poll finds Labour’s best polling of the term so far, putting them well clear of the Conservatives in both parliaments. The constitutional question continues to tilt narrowly towards the Union, whilst questions on the voting system show strong support for PR at Westminster and ending Scotland’s odd “three systems, one country” status.
LE22: Counting the Candidates
With just over a month to go until the local elections, nominations have closed, giving us the 2548 candidates, duking it out in 355 wards, in 32 councils, for 1226 seats. Or rather, the 2530 going for 1205, given some uncontested wards…
Poll Analysis: ComRes 10th – 16th of March 2022
A third ComRes in a row continues to show a close contest for second place at Holyrood, this time to Labour’s narrow advantage, and still strong Green figures. The constitutional question remains tight but with a Union lead.
Wards Worth Watching: Aberdeenshire
Aberdeenshire is set to be Scotland’s most interesting contest, as Conservatives hope to make up for 2017’s under-nomination, the SNP bounce back from a low, Lib Dems try to stave off decline, and Labour and the Greens face likely ejection.
Wards Worth Watching: Glasgow
Glasgow’s biggest city is likely to remain an SNP lead, though Labour could narrow the gap. The Conservatives meanwhile are at serious risk of losing third place to the Greens.
Wards Worth Watching: Dumfries and Galloway
Don’t expect anything but a Conservative lead in what is a strong council for them, and the SNP’s weakest on the mainland. The Labour vote may be the one to watch here, both in terms of how it shifts at top level and where transfers go.
Wards Worth Watching: North Ayrshire
Transfers helped deliver an SNP-Labour tie in seats in 2017, but boundary changes may have helped make enough of a difference for the SNP to pull ahead this time.
Wards Worth Watching: Aberdeen
Scotland’s third largest city has become increasingly politically diverse, and may see at least one Green councillor for the first time – whilst a term-long suspension for Labour’s councillors offers a truly weird backdrop for that party.