The first poll of 2022 is both oddly boring yet intriguing. Though the Conservatives add a poor Scottish poll to their poor GB-wide trends, Labour don’t benefit at all, with the Lib Dems instead gaining. The constitution remains evenly split, whilst voters are unconvinced on adding Devo Max to the mix.
The very final by-election of the 2017-2022 term delivers an unsurprising Labour victory and, perhaps more surprisingly, a suite of only very small swings.
2022 is off to a fiery start as seemingly the entire Holyrood wing of the Conservatives launch into open revolt against Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Some commentators are talking about a new political party, echoing Murdo Fraser’s 2011 campaign pledge.
For one final look back at 2021, we’re looking at the constitutional twists and turns in a year that started with a lead for Independence and ends with one for the Union.
The months following an election are never the busiest time for polling, but what there is to end the year finds everyone else at Holyrood gaining at least a little at the Conservatives’ expense.
STV proved typically messy throughout 2021, with a mighty 22 by-elections giving the SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems electoral gains since 2017, whilst Labour fell backwards.
The last by-election of the year, and second last of the term, gives an expected Conservative victory in a largely rural ward, where Independents rather than the SNP were their main challengers.
What is definitely, this time, the last by-election of the term follows the sad passing of a very long-serving Labour councillor. They’ll have the edge here, but there’s been a lot of change since 2017 that could see them facing a stiff challenge.
A Highland surprise with no strong Independent results leads to an easy SNP victory over partially strengthened Conservatives, and an unexpectedly solid third place for the Greens.
Rounding out the set for 2017 by-elections, this trip in our electoral TARDIS takes us to a vote that arose from a Labour councillor taking the step up to Westminster.
