A second poll from our newest (hopefully regular) agency has the SNP on a knife-edge majority, Labour continuing a modest polling recovery, and the strongest Green result in well over a year.
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October 2020 Islands By-Election Results
After a pandemic-induced break, the first by-elections since March not just in Scotland but anywhere in the UK took place over the past week. This was a gentle easing back into by-elections for politics nerds, as both were for largely-Independent Islands councils.
Kincorth/Nigg/Cove (Aberdeen) By-Election, 05/11/2020
Of the three by-elections that were due on the 5th, we’re down to just this one in Aberdeen. Following an SNP Councillor’s election as MP, they should easily hold their seat.
Ellon and District (Aberdeenshire) By-Election, 15/10/2020
Following the SNP electing a councillor as MP for Gordon, this by-election could see the Conservatives gain a seat, making up for their mistake in 2017 of nominating too few candidates.
Survation, 2nd-7th of September 2020
A fourth poll from a different agency in a row sees the SNP maintain a commanding lead, but the first Labour lead in seats versus the Conservatives in nearly two years.
Na Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas Nan Loch (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) By-Election, 08/10/2020
A second Islands council by-election, this time for the Comhairle nan Eilean Siar, is likely to follow the Islands norm with an Independent victory – but what Independent?
North Isles (Orkney) By-Election, 01/10/2020
For the first Scottish by-election since they all ground to a halt in March due to the Coronavirus pandemic, we’re taking a trip to Orkney. Expect this to follow the islands norm with an Independent.
ComRes, 6th-13th of August 2020
Following last week’s YouGov poll, we’ve had a new kid on the block in the form of Savanta ComRes. Although ComRes aren’t a new pollster overall, they are new to Scottish polling.
YouGov, 6th-10th August 2020
Scottish polling seems to have settled into a roughly monthly rhythm at the moment, though after months of Panelbase polls it’s nice to have a bit of a change with a YouGov.
AMS – Neither Complex nor Broken
I’m not entirely sure why, but there are two particular misconceptions about Holyrood’s voting system that pop up frequently amongst journalists. AMS isn’t “complex”, and the SNP didn’t break it in 2011 – and you don’t need to be a mathematical genius to understand either of these things.