Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
In what is set to be one of the most fascinating by-elections of the year, we’re off doon the water to the Isle of Arran. Conservative councillor Timothy Billings resigned his seat here, having already moved down south. From reports, it sounds like dissatisfaction with things on Arran, particularly the ferries, may have contributed to his moving away in the first place. Billings was first elected in 2017 for the then Ardrossan and Arran ward, and re-elected in 2022 when it was trimmed down to just Arran.
Ward Details
Arran is one of 9 wards in North Ayrshire, and elects just one councillor at a full election. That makes this a truly unique ward, as no other part of the country has had single councillor representation since STV was introduced in 2007. This exception was allowed by the Islands Act 2018, but not applied anywhere else as Comhairle nan Eilian Siar’s Barraigh agus Bhatarsaigh ward was successfully argued up to 2 councillors; ironically enough, only one candidate ended up standing there at the full election anyway.
As the name obviously gives away, the ward covers the isle of Arran, the largest island in the Firth of Clyde. Often described as “Scotland in miniature”, most of the population lives in the flatter (but still hilly) southern end, concentrated most especially in Brodick, Lamlash and Whiting Bay, all of which face towards the Ayrshire coastline. The northern half is much more sparsely populated, and contains stunning peaks including Goatfell which offer some of the most incredible views available in Scotland if you get a clear day.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Cunninghame North constituency which the SNP dramatically and narrowly gained from Labour in 2007, when the arrival of damp ballot papers from the isle became a brief point of possible contention. At the UK Parliament it’s within the North Ayrshire and Arran constituency that Labour re-gained from the SNP in last month’s General Election, having previously held it before the SNP’s 2015 landslide.
Electoral History
As this ward was only created fresh for the 2022 elections, it doesn’t have any definite electoral history prior to that. Nonetheless, ahead of the elections I had looked at the impacts of the boundary changes to give myself notional results to work with on the day. Those estimated that the SNP would have won the ward had it existed in 2017, but only by 5 votes, meaning it’s not a very certain notional.
The notional SNP councillor in question, Ellen McMaster, was instead also elected in the actually existing Ardrossan and Arran ward, which gave Arran two of the three councillors despite Ardrossan’s population preponderance. During the term she defected to Alba, but didn’t seem to last very long in that party before chucking it. Come 2022, and following a lot of controversy relating to ferries, it was the similarly Arran-based Conservative Billings that certainly won the sole seat available.
Despite the SNP’s estimated 5 vote advantage at the final stage in the 2017 notional, the Conservatives had an even narrower 3 vote lead in the estimated first preferences. Whilst that’s only an estimate, there’s enough certainty in the general shape of it to say that both parties and Labour lost support in the face of a new Independent, the Greens and McMaster standing again as another Independent. Notably, despite being an incumbent, she would go on to score the lowest share of any candidate.
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor, in order elected:
🔵Conservative: Timothy Billings
Change vs 2017: +1 Conservative, -1 SNP (notional, boundary change)
Electorate: 4072
Turnout: 60.3%
Valid: 2431 (99.1%)
Spoiled: 23 (0.9%)
Quota: 1216
Candidates
🔵Conservative: Timothy Billings
🟡SNP: Steve Garraway
🔴Labour: Aaran McDonald
⚪Independent: Ellen McMaster
🟢Green: Ronna Park
⚪Independent: Tom Young
First Preferences
Transfers (recalculation excluding SNP)
Two-Candidate Preferred (recalculation excluding SNP)
By-Election
Candidates
Well, here’s a surprise: we have five political parties contesting this by-election, but not the Holyrood 5. Missing from the list are not traditional Ayrshire absentees in the Lib Dems or Greens, nor the often island-weak Labour, and certainly not the Conservatives. Nope, the party posted missing is the SNP. Instead, the fifth party are Reform UK, which adds to the sense I was talking about in the Armadale and Blackridge preview that they might finally be getting serious about Scotland, this being only their third ever council run here.
That’s a remarkable turn of events given the SNP were in the top-two here in 2022; the party’s woes with Scotland’s ferry fleet have been widely reported, and perhaps they simply didn’t have anyone willing to stand under their banner on Arran in the current circumstances? Updated: Sources tell me the candidate had to withdraw for personal reasons a matter of hours before the deadline for nominations, and it was therefore not possible to find another candidate in that time period.
None of the candidates, as far as I can make out, are returning figures. However, I would assume that the Independent James McMaster has some relation to Ellen McMaster, the former SNP-turned-Independent councillor who lost out in 2022. Whether that will count for or against him, I couldn’t possibly guess.
🔴Labour: Charles Currie
⚪Independent: James McMaster
🔵Conservative: Mackenzie Smith
🟠Lib Dem: Matt Taylor
🟣Reform UK: Carole Thomson
🟢Green: Neil Wilkinson
Analysis
Given the close-knit nature of island communities, this was already going to be a hard one to meaningfully predict. The fact the SNP aren’t even standing makes it nigh-on impossible. Candidates will matter more than in your average by-election, and I can only say for certain that three (Labour, Independent and Green) live in the ward, as the others have given generic “an address in North Ayrshire”.
That doesn’t mean they don’t live on Arran, as there are very, very good reasons to use the generic address option, but it will matter to how well they do if they don’t. Billings was very much an Arran resident, having long run a hotel on the island and clearly being involved in a range of local initiatives. If his party successor isn’t similarly rooted in the community, that’s likely to substantially lower their chances. Updated: I am informed that the Conservative candidate is indeed not an Arran resident, and I’m therefore inclined to remove them from the tossup accordingly.
Although candidates will matter a lot, party affiliation won’t be completely irrelevant, and that’s where things get really interesting in the SNP’s absence. Chuck them out, and who ends up facing off against the Conservatives instead? The Greens, who in fact come marginally closer (3% vs 3.6%) to beating the Conservatives. That’s significantly closer than Labour, at 12.8% if you force them to a head-to-head, or the 10.2% for the other McMaster.
That raises the very real prospect that the Greens could win this by-election; they wait 17 years since the introduction of STV in 2007 to win a by-election and then (following Hillhead in March) there’s a chance they could win a second. On the other hand, though Labour didn’t do near as well in 2022, they’ve obviously done very well overall recently including winning the local MP seat and that could certainly help them along. And, islands being islands, don’t write off the Independent either.
In short, I haven’t the faintest idea about who might win out of those three. The candidates I feel I can say for certain won’t get in are the Conservatives, due to the confirmed non-resident nature of their candidate, as well as the Lib Dems and Reform UK. The Lib Dems just don’t strike me as having enough pull as a party regardless of candidate in this part of the country, whilst the latter are likely to be too transfer toxic to get anywhere.
Prediction
Labour-Green-Independent Tossup.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
Two-Candidate Preferred (full election)
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