
Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Although the circumstances for this by-election aren’t uncommon at the moment – replacing a councillor who has recently become an MP – the party they represent certainly is. Whereas most such instances are obviously for Labour councillors who’ve made the jump to Westminster, in this case it’s the SNP’s Graham Leadbitter. He had been councillor for the Elgin City South ward in Moray since 2007, as well as council leader during most of the previous term. He’s now MP for Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey.
Ward Details
Elgin City South is one of 8 wards in Moray, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. As the name implies, it covers the southern portion of Elgin, though despite the insistent nomenclature, Elgin is not and never has actually been a city. The whole “if it has a cathedral, it’s a city” rule wasn’t ever a formal thing in Scotland; besides, Elgin Cathedral was abandoned after the Reformation; further besides, Scotland had a proper Reformation and (somewhat fitfully) ditched episcopal church governance within the Kirk, and therefore bishops, and therefore what qualifies a church as a cathedral. Sorry, angry Moravians, neither of us make the rules. Anyway, city status tangents aside, there haven’t yet been any boundary changes to this ward.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Moray constituency which has always been held by the SNP. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey constituency that the SNP won in July; it had previously been in the Moray constituency that the Conservatives gained from the SNP in 2017 after three decades.
During that time it was represented by none other than Douglas Ross, who recent reports claimed had asked the already selected Conservative candidate if she’d step aside so he could re-stand. She did not, Ross managed to get David Duguid deselected in the neighbouring seat, and the rest is history. It’s perhaps poetic that this by-election is taking place on the same day as the Fraserburgh and District by-election to replace the councillor who successfully beat Ross in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
Electoral History
At the first election, the seats went one each to the SNP, Labour and Independent Alastair Bissett. Leadbitter was a newly elected councillor, whereas Labour’s John Divers had been councillor for the old New Elgin East ward since 1999 – in fact, he’d beaten Leadbitter at the 2003 election. Bissett likewise had been a councillor since 1999 for the old Central West ward. Bissett sadly wouldn’t serve for very long under the new arrangements, passing in the December and triggering a by-election won by the SNP.
The following three elections would then return exactly the same pattern of councillors: one apiece for the SNP, Labour and Conservatives. Whereas that would be the same councillors for the SNP and Labour, the outgoing Graham Leadbitter and John Divers respectively, the Conservatives elected a completely new councillor at each outing.
At the very first election under the new system, there were only four candidates up for election anyway, meaning it was the Conservatives who lost out as the least popular option, with the SNP in the lead. At the by-election following Bissett’s death, the SNP held basically steady whilst the other two parties lost out to a bunch of Independents, the Lib Dems, and a couple of micro parties.
When we moved onto the three elections in a row that gave the same party balance, it also saw each party get a turn each on top. Labour had the lead, by the skin of their teeth, in 2012, the Conservatives in 2017 during their revival, and the SNP back on top in 2022.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Graham Leadbitter
🔴Labour: John Divers
🔵Conservative: Peter Bloomfield
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 40.5%
Electorate: 10149
Valid: 4062 (98.8%)
Spoiled: 51 (1.2%)
Quota: 1016
Candidates
🔵Conservative: Peter Bloomfield
⚪Independent: Paul Briggs
🔴Labour: John Divers
⚪Independent: Michaela French
🟡SNP: Graham Leadbitter
🟠Lib Dem: Bernard Salmon
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
It’s a really short ballot for this one with just the (classic) Westminster 4 on it, the Greens continuing not to contest this particular ward. The list of familiar faces is very short too: in this cycle, it’s just the Lib Dem, who stood in the northern Elgin ward in 2022, and the Westminster seat this year. The SNP candidate did stand in 2019 for the old Moray constituency though – I usually confine these remarks to the most recent cycle for ease, but in this case I recognised the name.
🟠Lib Dem: Neil Alexander
🟡SNP: Laura Mitchell
🔵Conservative: Elaine Kirby
🔴Labour: Catriona McBain
Analysis
Although the parliamentary constituencies have generally been SNP versus Conservative affairs, Elgin is something of an island of Labour support within Moray. That’s especially true of this ward, which has always had a Labour councillor post-STV. Especially given Labour win the 2022 head-to-head against the SNP by a relatively comfortable 7% or so, they should go into this the favourites. One thing I would note though is that it’s very likely that John Divers has a strong personal vote cultivated through his long service.
The only time he wasn’t the Labour candidate, at the 2008 by-election, the party did much worse, losing significantly more of their vote to the various Independents than the SNP and Conservatives did. I therefore wouldn’t write off either of those parties entirely, as they might have a more “natural” base here than Labour do. Compared to wards with similar Labour leads in the Central Belt which I currently view as straight up, guaranteed Labour wins, I’m plumping for “likely” here.
Prediction
Likely Labour.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
All councillors in this ward were elected on first preferences alone, and thus no transfer rounds were required.
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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