Background
On the busiest single day for by-elections since I started Ballot Box Scotland, we had a whopping five votes on Thursday last week. I’ve been a little slower pulling the full analysis together for these than I usually am. That’s partly due to when data was made available, but even if it had been available earlier, I was so busy painting and moving things to my new home over the weekend I just didn’t have capacity. (In this case, I didn’t even remember I’d not lined the piece up, I was so run off my feet with settling in stuff!)
The middle (by ward number) of the trio in Aberdeenshire, Central Buchan is a classic rural North East ward that historically had a big SNP vote but has since seen big swings towards the Conservatives. Given how close run it was and the struggles facing both parties at the moment I’d given this a “Lean” Conservative in my preview. I also noted how odd it was that there was no Alba candidate in the very ward that Alex Salmond was a resident of, for obvious reasons not expecting his sudden passing later that same week.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Conservative: Peter Chapman
Change vs 2022 (notional): Conservative Hold
Change vs vacating: Conservative Gain from SNP
Turnout: 27.0% (-15.5)
Electorate: 11408
Valid: 3049 (99.1%)
Spoiled: 27 (0.9%)
Quota: 1525
3 Continuing Councillors:Conservative: Hannah Powell
Lib Dem: Anne Simpson
SNP: Geoff Crowson
Candidates
Lib Dem: Ian BaileyConservative: Peter Chapman
Reform UK: Andrew Curwen
Family: Phil Reynolds
Independent: Dean WardSNP: Sarah Wilken
First Preferences
Note: An Independent won 11.3%, Labour 4.6%, Greens 2.9% and Alba 2.4% in 2022.
First Preference History
As it turned out, it quite heavily went to the Conservatives despite the presence of Reform on the ballot paper. Although this ward doesn’t have as strong Independents as Inverclyde West or Fraserburgh and District on the same day, there was still more than a fifth of the 2022 vote missing. I’ve therefore done for this what I did for those and estimated a vote share in their absence based on transfer data. From doing so, the Conservatives are the only returning party to meaningfully increase their vote share, by circa 3%, reaching their best yet.
The SNP meanwhile obviously had a loss of share straight-up, which becomes even steeper when you account for non-returns: a decline of about -9% overall, to their lowest ever tally. That’s especially notable when you consider the other pro-Independence parties had 5% in 2022 the SNP could have nibbled on here. The Lib Dems fittingly sit somewhere in the middle: up in terms of raw share (and to their best yet), but quite significantly down when factoring in the non-returns, by about -7%.
Reform UK placed a respectable fourth here, with nowhere near the support they got in Fraserburgh but still a very creditable share that’d easily help them towards a North East MSP or two. Fellow social conservatives in the Family party doubled their first preferences compared to the full election, but again if we consider those missing 2022 candidates, they are actually completely flat.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
The Conservative lead here was already so substantial it’s very rare to see it overturned, never mind with the kind of transfers available to them. Indeed, they made it so comfortably across the line that the count process didn’t even need to go so far as the (mathematically meaningless) elimination of the second placed candidate.
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
Given the turnout there are quite a few mergers here so we can’t get very local, but Aberdeenshire’s election office very kindly made sure the mergers were pulled together as usefully as possible within those constraints. The Conservatives ended up leading in every party of the ward, but had their best overall result in the districts covering Stuartfield and Longside. That portion was quite favourable to the right/conservative end of the spectrum overall, also being the top Reform and Family spot.
The SNP’s strongest area was Mintlaw, which they led in 2022 but missed out on by 10 votes here. It was also the Independent’s highest share. Lastly, the centre of Lib Dem support was across the New Pitsligo, Strichen and Fetterangus districts.
Second Preferences
Some similarities here not with usual patterns – due to the absence of Labour and the Greens – but instead with the vote in neighbouring Fraserburgh. The Conservatives and Reform UK strongly favoured one another, the Lib Dems were most likely to go Conservative but with the SNP not a million miles behind, and the SNP in turn most heavily leaning towards the Lib Dems in the absence of any other Pro-Independence option. For the Family party’s voters it was the Conservatives out in front, but again not too far ahead of the SNP, and the Independent’s backers had a lot of Lib Dem leanings.
It’s only slightly less busy for by-elections the week after this set, with another four up: two in East Ayrshire (Doon Valley and Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse), one in West Lothian (Whitburn and Blackburn) and, probably the most interesting of the bunch, Edinburgh (Colinton and Fairmilehead). These are already over by the time this piece has published, but I’m keeping within the time period…
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