
Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
It’s another busy week for by-elections in Scotland. We’ve got four in total, all of which have arisen because Labour councillors were elected as MPs in July’s UK General Election. We’ve not exactly been short of double (or more) bills lately, but this time around in East Ayrshire is slightly different. It’s a classic case of “you wait ages for one bus, and two come along”, because we haven’t had a by-election here since I launched Ballot Box Scotland, and now we have two at once! This one is for the Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse ward, following Lillian Jones’ election as MP for Kilmarnock and Loudoun. She’d been a councillor here since 2012.
Ward Details
Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse is one of 9 wards in Angus, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. As you’d expect this covers the western end of Kilmarnock, including the Hillhead, Grange, Annanhill, Annandale areas, plus a substantial stretch that doesn’t appear to have a specific local name on maps but which I’m calling “Gargieston” since that’s the name of the school. Outside Kilmarnock it obviously has Crosshouse, plus the tiny hamlet of Gatehead. No boundary changes have happened here yet, so it’s all the exact same ward across elections.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley constituency which the SNP have held since they gained the prior Kilmarnock and Loudoun version from Labour in 2007. At the UK Parliament it’s within the Kilmarnock and Loudoun seat that Jones gained from the SNP in July, having been SNP for the period since their 2015 landslide.
Electoral History
In partisan terms, absolutely not a thing has changed about this ward’s representation since it was created. Every election has given two SNP (the same two the whole time), one Labour (Jones coming in 2012) and Conservatives (a new candidate replacing the retiring councillor in 2022).
Vote wise, this is one of those rare wards where the SNP clearly started out so popular the only place they could go was downwards. They’ve lost support at every election since STV was introduced, and Labour’s recovery after placing third behind the Conservatives in 2017 still has them a bit worse off than their pre-Referendum shares. The relative strength of the Conservative vote here (their third best ward in East Ayrshire in 2007 and 2012, then second best in 2017 and 2022) likely relates to the fact the western portion of Kilmarnock contains easily the most affluent parts of the town.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🔴Labour: Lillian Jones
🔵Conservative: James Adams
🟡SNP: Iain Linton
🟡SNP: Douglas Reid
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 44.6%
Electorate: 13347
Valid: 5888 (98.8%)
Spoiled: 70 (1.2%)
Quota: 1178
Candidates
🔵Conservative: James Adams
🟢Green: Elizabeth Brown
🔴Labour: Lillian Jones
🟡SNP: Iain Linton
⚪Independent: Frank McNiff
⚫Alba: Guy Njali Jola
🟡SNP: Douglas Reid
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Easily the smallest ballot of the by-elections on this date, this is just the four Westminster parties plus an Independent. This McNamara stood for Leith Walk in Edinburgh in 2022, and is the only candidate to have done so that year, I think. Given the Greens stood here in the past two elections, I’m rather surprised that they didn’t stand for this by-election but are in Doon Valley. Odd!
🔵Conservative: Allan MacDonald
🟠Lib Dem: Lee Manley
⚪Independent: Stephen McNamara
🟡SNP: Marie Robertson
🔴Labour: Jayne Sangster
Analysis
Given where the SNP started here in 2007, it’s perhaps surprising that by 2022 it was Labour coming out on top on the two-candidate preferred measure. In general right now I expect Labour to win by-elections in these scenarios, because whilst they may not be doing as well now nationally as they were in July, the SNP are doing a lot worse than in 2022. Add in the usual by-election dynamics, which favour the Labour voter base over the SNP, and they should come out on top. Given the history of SNP strength here though I am considering this “Likely” rather than outright stating I expect Labour to win.
Prediction
Likely Labour.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)