East Ayrshire

Background This week’s by-election gave us a relatively rapid return to East Ayrshire, and to Kilmarnock … By-Election Result: Kilmarnock NorthRead more

A second Killie by-election much harder for Labour to win than the first: if their swing there was replicated, the SNP would still win this one.

Labour would have been in dire trouble if they didn’t win this one, but the fact the Conservatives significantly closed the gap still doesn’t bode well, to say nothing of them pushing the SNP into third.

Another Labour win in a ward they’d have been hard pressed to lose based on 2022 results, but with somewhat more modest swings after transfers than they might have hoped.

A relatively quiet ballot by current standards, the SNP have long been strong in Kilmarnock but in this ward have gradually lost support over the years; that may ease Labour’s path to victory.

Sometimes, by-election predictions are very simple. This is one such case. Labour will win.