Background
On the busiest single day for by-elections since I started Ballot Box Scotland, we had a whopping five votes on Thursday last week. I’ve been a little slower pulling the full analysis together for these than I usually am. That’s partly due to when data was made available, but even if it had been available earlier, I was so busy painting and moving things to my new home over the weekend I just didn’t have capacity.
Aberdeenshire’s Fraserburgh and District was a slightly special by-election for me, as it was the 100th local by-election I’d previewed. In that preview, I viewed this by-election as a consolation prize for the Conservatives, after their former leader Douglas Ross stood for and lost the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat against now-former SNP Councillor Seamus Logan. I didn’t think the SNP had anywhere near the same chances of winning this by-election, with the Conservatives instead the clear favourites. I did however add that it would be very worth watching to see how Reform UK did.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Conservative: Iain Sutherland
Change vs 2022 (notional): Conservative Gain from Independent
Change vs 2022 (notional, excluding Independent): Conservative Hold
Change vs vacating: Conservative Gain from SNP
Turnout: 27.4% (-13.2)
Electorate: 11584
Valid: 3150 (99.2%)
Spoiled: 24 (0.8%)
Quota: 1576
3 Continuing Councillors:
Independent: Doreen MairConservative: James Adams
Lib Dem: Ann Bell
Candidates
Lib Dem: Sandy Leslie
SNP: Mike McDonald
Reform UK: Conrad Ritchie
Family: Dawn SmithConservative: Iain Sutherland
First Preferences
Note: Independent Doreen Mair won 32.1%, Independent Paul Greenall 3.9% and Alba 5.8% here in 2022.
First Preference History
Sure enough, the Conservatives came out on top here, and there was no way transfers would go against them. When you consider the absence of around 42% of the 2022 on the ballot, everyone’s vote share had to increase, so it is perhaps notable that the Conservative gains here are very modest. Indeed, they are quite a bit below their implied vote share if eliminating those candidates from the 2022 count. The SNP’s gains are a fair bit stronger, which means their gap versus a reduced 2022 slate isn’t quite as wide; using the “double distribution” method outlined in the preview but further eliminating Alba and the other Independent, I get the Conservatives about -12% behind, versus about -4% for the SNP.
Shooting into third place and not far at all behind the SNP were Reform UK. They’ve generally done quite respectably at by-elections lately, but this was I thought the big one for them. Given the heavily Pro-Brexit lean of this area (by Scottish standards), this was a key test for them, and one they passed with flying colours. At a full election, this would elect a councillor with votes to spare. I’d add to this that personally I’m not surprised at all by this share, which feels about what I’d expected. I know a lot of folk on social media have been shocked by this one, but in context I don’t think you should be.
Further down the ballot, the Lib Dems and Family party are similar to the top two in that yes, there are gains compared to the raw 2022 outcome, but you have to account for the glut of votes that went to non-returning candidates. In relative terms the Lib Dems end up worst off by this measure, down about -9%, more than half their implied vote share. The Family party were starting from a lower base anyway, so they are only down about -1% by that measure.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
There was no way whatsoever that those first preferences wouldn’t lead to a Conservative victory, but the the process has to be followed. Enough Reform transfers went to the SNP to keep the Conservatives from making quota at the final head-to-head round, missing out by just 20 votes, but all that meant was the legally meaningless final elimination of the SNP.
Reflecting the earlier point about gaps in implied share, note that there’s a swing towards the SNP here relative to the two-party preferred result in 2022. It’s a very modest one, but it is a wee silver lining for them on what was otherwise a pretty tough day for by-election results.
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
In terms of the distribution of votes across the ward, the Conservatives and Reform UK were absolutely dominant in the more rural portion of the ward that covers Inverallochy, Rathen and Memsie. The SNP meanwhile did best in Fraserburgh itself, taking a lead in the north western portion of the town, which was also where the Family party had their best result. The Lib Dems proved strongest in the east of Fraserburgh.
Second Preferences
Given some of the typical transfer options weren’t available in this by-election, some of the patterns here might appear slightly odd. Not surprising is the fact that the Conservatives and Reform UK were one another’s most likely next preference, albeit for the Conservatives that wasn’t enormously ahead of the Lib Dems. SNP voters, lacking any other Pro-Independence option, were most likely to opt for the Lib Dems – the not insignificant return flow likely reflecting the absence of Labour.
It’s only slightly less busy for by-elections the week after this set, with another four up: two in East Ayrshire (Doon Valley and Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse), one in West Lothian (Whitburn and Blackburn) and, probably the most interesting of the bunch, Edinburgh (Colinton and Fairmilehead). Due to unavoidable work commitments I won’t be able to cover any of these until Friday evening, though if any of them are overnight counts I might just be able to squeak the headline results from those out.
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