Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
In what should be one of the last two by-elections of this year, we’re back in Glasgow two weeks after the previous set of votes here for Partick East and Kelvindale. This has arisen from the sad circumstances of SNP councillor Kenny McLean passing away. McLean had been a councillor since 2007, originally for the Partick West ward, and held a senior role in relation to housing in the city administration. As his funeral had not yet been held when the other batch of by-elections needed to be formally scheduled, this one couldn’t be held on the same day: it’s an obvious matter of taste and respect not to start the formal process of replacing a councillor before they have been laid to rest.
Ward Details
Partick East and Kelvindale is one of 23 wards in Glasgow, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. This ward was a new creation in 2017, drawing from three prior wards. From Maryhill/Kelvin it brought Kelvindale and Kelvinside, as well as an eastern portion of Anniesland. From Hillhead, it took Hyndland and Dowanhill. Finally, from the old Partick West, it has most of Claythorn and Partick itself. This creates quite a mixed ward, with the end north of Great Western Road being mostly affluent with a lot of family homes, Partick being a more student and young professional type area, and Hyndland sort of transitional between those zones.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is part of a three-way split. The area north of Great Western Road lies within the Maryhill and Springburn seat which Labour held until 2016, most of the area south of it is in Glasgow Kelvin which the SNP won in 2011, and a small portion is in Glasgow Anniesland which was similarly an SNP victory in 2011 by the wafer-thin margin of 7 votes.
At the UK Parliament it’s entirely within the Glasgow North constituency Labour won in July – with one of their former councillors for this ward, but perhaps surprisingly one who had retired in 2022. It had previously been split in quite a jagged way between the North West and North constituencies, both of which were SNP from their 2015 landslide onwards.
Electoral History
As this was created out of parts of three previous wards, it’s absolutely incomparable to anything pre-2017. At its first outing the ward split four ways between the SNP, Conservatives, Labour and Greens (in that voting order). Three of the four councillors were re-elected from prior wards, with McLean and the Green from Partick West and Labour from Maryhill/Kelvin.
Over the course of the term the Conservative candidate would end up disqualified for non-attendance, with Labour winning the resulting by-election, and the Green left the party in 2021. In 2022, the Conservative slump saw them lose their seat to a second Labour candidate, who joined their by-election winner, whilst McLean and a new Green were elected.
Looking at it in vote terms is quite remarkable for Labour. They started out barely ahead of the Greens, as the surging Conservatives took second place behind the SNP, and the Lib Dems made an ill-judged attempt to win a councillor here that didn’t even get to the halfway mark. Since then, the Conservatives have been in freefall and the Lib Dems gave up, and those voters clearly flowed directly to Labour. The SNP have also lost share across the period, much of which appears to have gone to the Greens who have had a modest but steady uptick.
Shares in 2022 also speak to a messy contest for the final seat: whilst Labour, the SNP and Greens all easily won a councillor, the Conservatives notionally started closest to the final seat, which would be decided mostly by the SNP’s transfers. Those saw the second Labour candidate pull ahead by just 1.2% at the final stage: having started with just 3.5% of the vote, that was quite an impressive turnaround, albeit that became 10.9% after the surplus transfers from Labour’s top candidate.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🔴Labour: Jill Brown
🟢Green: Blair Anderson
🟡SNP: Kenny McLean
🔴Labour: Lilith Johnstone
Change vs 2017: +1 Labour, -1 Conservative
Turnout: 47.1%
Electorate: 21995
Valid: 10231 (98.7%)
Spoiled: 133 (1.3%)
Quota: 2047
Candidates
🟢Green: Blair Anderson
🔵Conservative: Naveed Asghar
🔴Labour: Jill Brown
🔴Labour: Lilith Johnstone
🟡SNP: Kenny McLean
🟤Freedom Alliance: Di McMillan
🟠Lib Dem: Nicholas Moohan
⚫Alba: Udochukwu Nwaokorobia
🟡SNP: Linsey Wilson
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
A real surprise here in that whilst we have the full Holyrood 5, that’s all we have. No Reform, no Alba (this was the worst result for them of any ward they contested in 2022 mind you), no micro parties, no Independents. Amongst these, only a couple of returning faces that I can make out.
The SNP candidate stood in Drumchapel and Anniesland ward in 2022, whilst the Conservative’s Faten Hameed is a regular: she stood in East Centre in 2022, the Hillhead by-election earlier this year, and for Glasgow West at the General Election. You may recall she’d previously been the Labour candidate for Glasgow Central in 2017 and 2019.
🔴Labour: James Adams
🟠Lib Dem: Nicholas Budgen
🔵Conservative: Faten Hameed
🟢Green: Héloïse Le Moal
🟡SNP: Cylina Porch
Analysis
Labour beat the SNP here pretty comfortably in 2022, with a lead of 9.3% after transfers. Especially when you consider it’ll be the Kelvindale rather than Partick end of this ward turning out for by-elections, it’d be a complete disaster if they didn’t win this. I don’t think there’s any danger of that.
As with neighbouring Maryhill, one thing worth watching here is the Green vote. They were a fair bit behind the SNP in 2022, but still have a solid enough share that if – and it’s a big if – it holds up better than the SNP’s they could even pull into second. The Greens actually run Labour closer on a two-candidate basis than the SNP did, placing just 1.7% behind, but that was 2022. Given the significant decrease of mutual preferencing between the two parties, I’m not convinced that would repeat this time around.
It’ll also be fascinating to see what the Conservative vote share is like. They’re facing off against Reform UK in the other Glasgow by-elections, but not here. Admittedly, the kind of Conservative voters that live in this ward aren’t really the sort who’d go for Reform UK. Nonetheless, they’ll be hoping their vote holds up pretty well in what should be one of their key targets to re-grow in 2027.
Prediction
Labour Win.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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