
100 Council By-Elections Previewed!
Before we get into the meat of this by-election, I just want to note that this is a big milestone: it’s the 100th council by-election I’ve previewed for Ballot Box Scotland! It’s not quite the 100th preview piece, as during the last term I’d sometimes do a single piece for by-elections on the same day, but it’s definitely the 100th council by-election place since I launched BBS in January 2018, and I’ve written a preview for all of those. Strictly speaking, any of the four by-elections on this date could have been my 100th, but the “order by date; then council; then ward name” sort on my spreadsheet put this as the big 100.
This project has come a very long way indeed in the nearly seven years now since I started. I shudder to get any more eyes on it, but compare with my very first preview for Bonnybridge and Larbert back then. The map is absolutely vile as I’d only just gotten the barest grip of GIS at that point, and whereas previews (and results analysis) now are absolutely bursting with data, that’s literally just first preferences and a single-seat re-calc.
As light touch as it is compared to what I now do, it was still the original unique selling point of BBS. Given the fundamental difference between a single-seat and a multi-seat STV election, I was frustrated by overly simplistic “gain/hold” narratives UK-level folks were putting out. I’ve put a lot more bells and whistles on since then, but that’s still the core of my previews, giving a basis on which to compare like with like.
That is of course not to deride the work of others (and I’d always especially recommend Andrew Teale’s previews for Britain Elects, which provide a rich detail on people and place I could never hope to match), but simply to reflect on where BBS came from, and how I still distinguish myself from other sources of by-election analysis! Thanks as always to those who follow and enjoy my work, and especially to those who generously chip in with financial support – that is all massively appreciated.
Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
For the second preview of our Aberdeenshire triple (!) whammy on the 7th of November, we’re off to the Fraserburgh and District ward. Although it’s mostly Labour Councillors-turned-MP that are triggering by-elections at the moment, this one is from a very rare SNP move in that direction. Seamus Logan had first been elected as a ward councillor in 2022, and then went on to win the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat in July’s General Election.
That was one of the biggest Scottish results of the night, representing the only seat the SNP gained in what was otherwise a bloodbath for them, and a massive blow to the Scottish Conservatives and their then-leader Douglas Ross. Ross’s decision to force the convalescing David Duguid out at the last moment and put himself forward for this seat after spending four years saying he’d stand down from Westminster was – and I make no apology for saying this again – one of the most sordid episodes I’ve witnessed in Scottish politics.
Despite desperate and frankly quite pathetic attempts to shift the blame onto the voters for getting it wrong, it’s pretty clear that Ross only has himself to blame for that loss. Plenty of his prospective constituents were obviously so outraged by this that they variously didn’t vote at all, or voted Reform UK despite warnings it’d “let the SNP in”, or in fact even chose to vote for the SNP: at just -7.9% versus a national swing of -15%, this was the second least-bad swing against the party. A real cautionary tale behind this one, basically.
Ward Details
Fraserburgh and District is one of 19 wards in Aberdeenshire, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. As you might expect, the overwhelming bulk of this ward comes from the major fishing port of Fraserburgh. The next largest settlement is at Inverallochy, which has only around a tenth of the population, whilst the hamlets of Rathen and Memsie are even smaller still. The ward remains unchanged from 2007, allowing for direct comparisons to be made across every election.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Banffshire and Buchan Coast constituency that the SNP have held since it was created in 2011, and prior to that they held the Banff and Buchan version. At the UK Parliament it’s within that Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat that the SNP won in July, having previously been in the Banff and Buchan constituency which they lost to the Conservatives in 2017, after decades of SNP control.
Electoral History
The pattern of councillors in the ward really tells us a story, that will further develop when we look at the votes at each election. Back in 2007, the SNP’s control of this ward was so complete they won a whopping three councillors, all of whom had been Fraserburgh councillors under FPTP: Topping (West), Tait (East) and Ritchie (North). They were joined by newcomer Independent Michael Watt, who had unsuccessfully faced off against Topping in 2003. Tait resigned from the party a year into the term however, and in 2012 was re-elected as an Independent alongside a new SNP councillor who replaced the retiring Ritchie.
In 2017, both sitting SNP councillors were re-elected, but both Independents were shown the door, to be replaced by a Conservative and a new Independent, Doreen Mair. With Topping defecting to Alba in 2021 and ending his 38 years on the council with defeat, the SNP went into 2022 with only a single candidate, who placed third behind a new Conservative and Mair, with the Lib Dems surprisingly taking the final seat.
As a bit of an aside, this ward offered one of my comedic highlights of the 2022 local elections. When Christopher McEleny absolutely bombed in Inverclyde West (he’s back again for a by-election on the same day as this!), I’d added to the results Tweet that he was probably the best shot they had of a councillor (and that it was mortifying he only got 2.6%). A very small number of folk weren’t happy about that, and I was informed it was in fact Brian Topping who was their best shot. He won 5.8%, which was indeed better. Occasionally I do have to remind folk I am a one-person project and I don’t actually know everything about every ward in the country, so I had reasonably assumed the candidate who was more nationally prominent might have been in with more of a shout!
Look at that SNP collapse: almost a straight line down from over 60% to just 20% over the course of four elections. That’s how they so easily got three councillors in 2007, having won a smidge over three quotas on first preferences alone. Watt got three-quarters of a quota and therefore had the least ground to make up. In 2012 though it was the now-Independent Tait who proved the most popular Independent, whilst Watt was run very close by Mair who missed out by just 2 votes at the final stage.
Mair would however emerge triumphant in 2017, still short of a quota, but nearly three-quarters of the way there against less than half for Tait and Watt. With the Conservatives surging and the SNP’s vote well balanced, those two Independents were sent packing. Finally in 2022, the Conservatives and Mair did so well that between them they had enough votes to elect three councillors. In the absence of a second Conservative, those transfers instead flowed to the Lib Dem Ann Bell, who despite not even making 5% of first preferences (coming 1% behind Topping standing for Alba) was therefore able to win a seat. The SNP, having started with the candidates and votes for three seats in 2007, stood one and won precisely and exactly one quota in 2022.
It’s worth viewing these figures not simply in the context of the Independence Referendum, but also the Brexit Referendum. As one of Scotland’s premier fishing ports, the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy has always been a bone of contention locally, and the SNP’s strongly Pro-EU bent will have gone down poorly in an area estimated to be the only part of Scotland to have voted Leave in 2016.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
⚪Independent: Doreen Mair
🔵Conservative: James Adams
🟡SNP: Seamus Logan
🟠Lib Dem: Ann Bell
Change vs 2017: +1 Lib Dem, -1 SNP
Turnout: 40.9%
Electorate: 11604
Valid: 4703 (99.2%)
Spoiled: 40 (0.8%)
Quota: 941
Candidates
🔵Conservative: James Adams
🟠Lib Dem: Ann Bell
⚪Independent: Paul Greenall
🟡SNP: Seamus Logan
⚪Independent: Doreen Mair
🟣Family: John McColl
⚫Alba: Brian Topping
First Preferences
Votes Excluding Independent (Double-Distributed)
Note: Given Mair’s significant popularity, it seemed useful to give a clearer indication of how the votes look if she is eliminated and her second preferences re-distributed. In this case I’ve done what I’ve dubbed a “double-distribution”, where I assume that most of the first preference only voters would actually have backed someone else if she hadn’t been on the ballot at all. I simply further re-distribute the non-transfers in the same proportion to her actual transfers.
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Party Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
No Labour or Greens from the Holyrood parties here, and only Reform UK and Family in their place. A surprising Alba absence here (they’re absent in all of these by-elections), given how much they wanted to win this in 2022. Some returning faces here, with the Lib Dem having stood in Banff and District in 2022 and the Conservative in Peterhead North and Rattray. The Family Party’s candidate meanwhile stood in Aberdeen North at the General Election.
🟠Lib Dem: Sandy Leslie
🟡SNP: Mike McDonald
🟣Reform UK: Conrad Ritchie
🟤Family: Dawn Smith
🔵Conservative: Iain Sutherland
Analysis
The SNP’s collapse in this ward has been so total that I really struggle to see how they could possibly win the by-election. It’s the kind of ward I could see them winning in a by-election in, say, late 2030, allowing them to go “look, we’re back on the up after a tough time!” But in 2024? I simply don’t see it. Given the scale of the Conservative lead in 2022, winning by nearly 18% over the SNP, they’d seem the most likely winners, which would give them a consolation prize for losing the constituency.
The complicating factor here though is Reform UK. If you were to pick a ward in Scotland with the greatest potential for them, it’d be this one. Especially given the Westminster seat was by far their best result in Scotland at the General Election, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won a share in excess of 20% here. If they do, remember that’s equivalent to winning a seat at a full 4-member election.
I don’t however expect them to win the by-election because they remain pretty transfer unfriendly. Even if they place ahead of the Conservatives, it’d have to be by some distance, as most other votes will transfer to the Conservatives before Reform. It’s not something I’d feel comfortable 100% dismissing however.
Similar to Central Buchan, I am so surprised that Alba haven’t stood here that I had to come back and delete the paragraph I had about them from my draft version. I struggle to understand what the party’s vision or strategy is if it isn’t standing candidates at every opportunity in Aberdeenshire of all places. The Banffshire and Buchan Coast seat this ward is within was their absolute top constituency! For all that they keep talking themselves up, no national polling beyond outlier Panelbase polls has them doing meaningfully better than 2021, and this kind of absence suggests that assessment is spot on.
Prediction
Likely Conservative.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
Two-Candidate Preferred
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