By-Election Preview: Mearns (Aberdeenshire) 7th of November 2024

Ward Profile

Cause of By-Election

Move aside, double bill by-elections: Aberdeenshire are here with an incredibly rare triple bill. Although they’ll be joined by Glasgow on this front shortly, I’m pretty sure this is the first time I’ve had to cover three by-elections all on one day in the same council area – plus one apiece in Moray and Inverclyde to boot! This one in Mearns has arisen from the resignation of SNP Councillor Kevin Stelfox, who was first elected in 2022 and doesn’t seem to have given any public statement of reasons.

Ward Details

Mearns is one of 19 wards in Aberdeenshire, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. It covers the southernmost portion of historic Kincardineshire, which partly lost its independent identity in the 70’s with the “Kincardine and Deeside” district council, before finally disappearing entirely when a much-expanded Aberdeenshire came into being in the 90’s. The primary settlements are at Laurencekirk, Inverbervie and St Cyrus, but there are plenty of smaller villages and hamlets within this area as well, including Johnshaven, Marykirk, Fettercairn, Auchenblae, Drumlithie and Catterline.

For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Angus North and Mearns constituency which has been held by the SNP since it was created in 2011, having previously been in the Lib Dem seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. At the UK Parliament it’s within the still-named West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine which the SNP gained from the Lib Dems in their 2015 landslide, before promptly losing it to the Conservatives in 2017, who have held it since.

Electoral History

At the advent of the STV voting system, the Lib Dems were most popular in this part of the country, and that was reflected in them winning two councillors here against one each for the SNP and Conservatives. When their support collapsed nationwide in 2012, they only stood a single candidate, with Independent Dave Stewart joining all the other re-elected councillors.

He only got a single term though before the Conservative’s 2017 surge landed them two councillors, alongside a newbie SNP councillor replacing a retiree, who’d go on to be one of the early Alba defectors. A new Lib Dem candidate failed to hold their seat in 2022, losing to Alison Evison who had previously been a Labour councillor for the neighbouring North Kincardine ward, serving as chair of COSLA during the 2017 term.

In 2007, the Lib Dem double came from their share being halfway to two councillors, and none of their competitors being strong enough to overtake the second candidate. When they collapsed in 2012 they still had a full quota of votes whilst it was the SNP in the lead and Conservatives close behind at the roughly one-and-a-half point. Transfers from the second Conservative favoured Stewart, taking him past the SNP’s number two. 

The post-IndyRef Conservative surge here was sizeable, easily handing them their 2017 double, whilst the Lib Dem share almost halved; remaining ahead of Stewart was what knocked him out. The Conservatives’ 2022 losses were almost as big as their gains at the previous election, but with the SNP largely static and Lib Dems falling further it was the two Independents that benefitted. One interesting little titbit here is that despite increasing national support significantly over this period, the Greens have done worse at every successive election here.

Councillors and Key Stats

4 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Kevin Stelfox
🔵Conservative: George Carr
Independent: Alison Evison
🔵Conservative: Laurie Carnie
Change vs 2017: +1 Independent, -1 Lib Dem
Turnout: 47.7%
Electorate: 12244
Valid: 5782 (99.0%)
Spoiled: 57 (1.0%)
Quota: 1157

Candidates

🔴Labour: Yvonne Allan
🔵Conservative: Laurie Carnie
🔵Conservative: George Carr
Independent: Alison Evison
🟠Lib Dem: Shona Ewen
🟢Green: Douglas Fraser
🟣Family: Diane Laurenson
Independent: David Neill
🟡SNP: Kevin Stelfox
Independent: Dave Stewart
Alba: Leigh Wilson

First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred

By-Election

Candidates

Mearns breaks with the other two Aberdeenshire votes by having a Green on the ballot paper, though still no Labour or Alba (despite the latter gaining a defector here pre-2022). That means Reform UK are filling the fifth party spot instead. Returning faces here are the Reform UK candidate, who stood for the Conservatives in Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside in 2022, and the Green who stood in Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine in July’s General Election.

🟠Lib Dem: Isobel Knights
🟣Reform UK: Claudia Leith
🟢Green: William Linegar
🟡SNP: Hannah Scott
🔵Conservative: Tracey Smith

Analysis

This could be an extremely tight one, when you consider that the SNP lead for a single seat in 2022 was just 3 (three!) votes. That notional lead is even more fragile when you consider they only had one candidate, versus two Conservatives. Voters aren’t perfect and some people don’t mark later preferences because they do a single cross because they don’t understand STV. Others don’t realise there are multiple candidates from one party or that you can preference them all and jump straight to another party. Those effects are enough that it’s quite likely the Conservatives are the “real” 2022 winners.

Given both parties are having a pretty shocking time at the moment though, it may come down to who is having the least bad time locally. I’d be generally inclined to say that’s the Conservatives given they held the overlapping Westminster seat, plus they benefit from by-election conditions anyway, but I wouldn’t be categoric about it. They’re absolutely not in it to win it, but with a much smaller ballot than the last election, the Greens will also be hoping to end their streak of vote share losses.

Prediction

Lean Conservative.

2022 Results (Detailed Data)

Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences

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