Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Move aside, double bill by-elections: Aberdeenshire are here with an incredibly rare triple bill. Although they’ll be joined by Glasgow on this front shortly, I’m pretty sure this is the first time I’ve had to cover three by-elections all on one day in the same council area – plus one apiece in Moray and Inverclyde to boot! This one in Central Buchan has arisen from the resignation of SNP Councillor David Mair, who was first elected in 2022 and doesn’t seem to have given any public statement of reasons.
Ward Details
Central Buchan is one of 19 wards in Aberdeenshire, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. It covers the bulk of inland Buchan, a largely rural stretch in which the largest village is Mintlaw, population circa 2,800. Other notable villages in the area include Longside, Stuartfield, Maud, New Deer, New Pitsligo, Fetterangus and Strichen, the latter of which was notably home to Alex Salmond, former SNP First Minister and latterly Alba leader, until his passing shortly after the initial version of this piece published. This ward remains as it was originally drawn in 2007, allowing for easy comparisons.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Aberdeenshire East constituency which has been held by the SNP since it was created in 2011. Before that it was in the Banff and Buchan constituency, which Salmond won at the inaugural 1999 election. At the UK Parliament it’s split between two constituencies, the bulk of it within Aberdeenshire North and Moray East which the SNP won in July. The smaller portion around Stuartfield, Maud and New Deer is within the Gordon and Buchan constituency which the Conservatives hold. Prior to the boundary changes, it had been in the Banff and Buchan seat which the Conservatives gained from the SNP after three decades in 2017.
Electoral History
At the first STV election in 2007, the ward elected one each from the SNP and Conservatives plus two Independents, Norman Smith and Albert Howe. Of those four councillors only Smith re-contested the ward in 2012, when he was joined by two SNP councillors plus one Conservative. The SNP would go on to lose one of those to the Lib Dems in 2017, when the Conservatives elected a third new councillor in a row. When 2022 came around it was only that Lib Dem who returned, with Smith losing his seat to a second SNP councillor, with both of those plus the Conservatives again being new.
In voting terms, much like the rest of this part of Scotland this ward demonstrates a clear before and after effect for the Referendum and resulting Conservative revival. The first two elections took place during the era of SNP parliamentary hegemony in this area, so although the Conservatives were easily the second strongest party, the SNP were well out in front. That was especially true in 2012 when they won just over two quotas, explaining how they picked up two seats. At both of these elections, the Conservatives and Norman Smith were also roughly at a quota each.
In 2017 though the Conservatives vaulted into a relatively narrow first place. Even though the Lib Dem share did increase on the more limited ballot than previously, they only won their councillor because this was one of a number of Aberdeenshire wards the Conservatives failed to stand a second candidate. Had they done so, they’d have elected both. They learned from their mistake in 2022 but the SNP managed to get their vote split almost perfectly between their two candidates (just 21 votes between them), which meant the Conservatives were pipped to the second seat by not even a dozen full votes. This time around the Lib Dems absolutely earned their seat, as having overtaken Smith, it was his transfers that took them over the line.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🔵Conservative: Hannah Powell
🟠Lib Dem: Anne Simpson
🟡SNP: David Mair
🟡SNP: Geoff Crowson
Change vs 2017: +1 SNP, -1 Independent (Norman Smith defeated)
Electorate: 11170
Turnout: 42.5%
Valid: 4657 (98.2%)
Spoiled: 85 (1.8%)
Quota: 761
Candidates
🟢Green: Jamie Cole-Hamilton
⚫Alba: Charlotte Cross
🟡SNP: Geoff Crowson
🔴Labour: Arif Mahmood
🟡SNP: David Mair
🟣Family: Joanna Moore
🔵Conservative: Steve Owen
🔵Conservative: Hannah Powell
🟠Lib Dem: Anne Simpson
⚪Independent: Norman Smith
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Although this is by no means a short ballot, some notable absences. Neither Labour nor the Greens have put forward a candidate this time, though that isn’t uncommon for them in Aberdeenshire. More notable though is that Alba haven’t either, despite this being their leader’s home ward at the close of nominations. It’s possible that as a former First Minister Salmond himself could consider being a councillor beneath him, but the lack of any candidate at all took me by surprise; of course, had Salmond stood, the by-election would have been postponed following his passing just days after the close of nominations.
Instead, we’ve only got the SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems from Holyrood, plus Reform UK, the Family Party, and an Independent. The Conservative candidate Peter Chapman is a very familiar face, having been their councillor for the ward from 2007 to 2012, and an MSP from 2016 to 2021. Meanwhile the Lib Dem contested Troup in 2022, the only candidate returning from that year’s elections in Aberdeenshire, as well as Aberdeenshire North and Moray East in July’s UK election.
🟠Lib Dem: Ian Bailey
🔵Conservative: Peter Chapman
🟣Reform UK: Andrew Curwen
🟤Family: Phil Reynolds
⚪Independent: Dean Ward
🟡SNP: Sarah Wilken
Analysis
In general terms, I’d say that since the Conservatives won the two-party matchup here by 3.5% in 2022 and by-election conditions favour them over the SNP, they’d be the most likely winners. It’s still not entirely clear at the moment which of the two is most seriously wounded though, so given how close that was I wouldn’t say the Conservatives are overwhelming favourites or anything.
One thing I had wondered about before actually properly checking the overlap on the maps is whether the Lib Dems could be the dark horse candidate here. They did very respectably in the Gordon and Buchan seat, to the extent it’s the next seat I’d mark out as worth them targeting beyond their current crop. However, that only accounts for a minority of the area of this ward, so I’m now not as convinced that’s a possibility. Never say never though, as in this part of the country, the Lib Dems are the obvious alternative to both the SNP and Conservatives for any scunnered voters, especially in the absence of Labour and the Greens.
I had to come back and delete an entire paragraph about Alba from my draft after the nominations were published. I’d expected them to stand and was therefore suggesting it’d be interesting to watch their vote here. Their absence is just as interesting, because for all the social media spin about them getting “MSP winning” vote shares in two recent by-elections they selectively stood in, it doesn’t to me speak to real confidence in themselves if they wouldn’t even give their own party leader the opportunity to vote for them in a local by-election.
Post Publication Update: I then felt the need to immediately come back in and re-add another paragraph on Alba, to emphasise why this is so odd. Parties build support across elections, not simply at them. In areas you want to win, you want to give voters as many opportunities as possible to vote for you, and to get as much campaigning done. At the scale of a Holyrood region, that doesn’t need to mean absolutely everywhere in that region, but you should appear in your best bits at least (so it’s fine for Labour and Greens to skip this one, but if they pass up on a central Aberdeen ward it’s trouble). The Aberdeenshire East constituency that this ward sits within was Alba’s second best area in 2021, which combined with this being Salmond’s patch is why this is a notable absence.
Further post publication update: Alex Salmond suddenly passed away a few days after the close of nominations for this ward, and after the publication of this piece. I have tweaked references to Salmond in light of his death, but I may not have caught them all.
Prediction
Lean Conservative.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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