Background
On the busiest single day for by-elections since I started Ballot Box Scotland, we had a whopping five votes on Thursday last week. I’ve been a little slower pulling the full analysis together for these than I usually am. That’s partly due to when data was made available, but even if it had been available earlier, I was so busy painting and moving things to my new home over the weekend I just didn’t have capacity.
This was the only by-election of the batch that the SNP were the winning 2022 party for a single seat – albeit only by 3 votes over the Conservatives, a margin likely entirely down to the fact the Conservatives had two candidates and the SNP one. Given what I refer to as “by-election dynamics” (i.e. the fact Conservative voters still generally turn out for by-elections and SNP voters don’t so much) on top of that, I reckoned it as a Conservative lean.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Conservative: Tracey Smith
Change vs 2022 (notional): Conservative Gain from SNP
Change vs vacating: Conservative Gain from SNP
Turnout: 27.8% (-19.9)
Electorate: 12414
Valid: 3435 (99.0%)
Spoiled: 22 (1.0%)
Quota: 1026
3 Continuing Councillors:Conservative: George Carr
Independent: Alison Evison
Reform UK (elected Conservative): Laurie Carnie
Candidates
Lib Dem: Isobel KnightsReform UK: Claudia Leith
Green: William Linegar
SNP: Hannah ScottConservative: Tracey Smith
First Preferences
Note: Independent Alison Evison won 10.8%, Independent Dave Stewart 8.9%, Labour 5.8%, Alba 1.7%, and Independent David Neill 1.3% in 2022.
First Preference History
In actuality, it ended up another quite significant Conservative victory. If you’ve read earlier analysis pieces from this batch of by-elections you’ll be familiar with this next bit: because non-returns had so much support in 2022, I’ve used transfer data to estimate a result without them. By that measure the Conservatives are roughly static, down just below -1%, so still a solid share.
The SNP took a really big knock, not just down in the raw shares but falling by nearly -12% if you account for non-returns. By contrast the Lib Dems did very well by both measures, roughly quadrupling their base vote share versus 2022 and adding about 7% compared to the estimate excluding the non-returning candidates. Reform UK have another “not massive but entirely respectable and MSP-winning” result, and the Greens have a little uptick relative to the actual first preferences but down perhaps -3% if we adjust for non-returns.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
With the Conservatives so far ahead on first preferences, their victory was all but guaranteed. You have to go through the process though, legally speaking, and they got there with plenty of room to spare, crossing quota without needing to eliminate the SNP. The Lib Dems got pretty close to overtaking the SNP, and if they had they’d have run the Conservatives a fair bit closer at 9.2%
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
Given the Conservatives had a pretty hand first preference lead, they ended up leading in every single district too, peaking in Drumlithie and Auchenblae. The SNP lost the leads they had in 2022 but were still strongest in the relevant areas: Gourdon, Marykirk, St Cyrus and Johnshaven. Their constitutional comrades the Greens also had their best share in those districts. The Lib Dems were strongest in Inverbervie, and Reform UK across Catterline and Fettercairn.
Second Preferences
In terms of second preferences, this was the only one of the bunch where SNP voters had a party on the same side of the constitutional divide as them, their preferences duly favouring the Greens, with a strong mutual flow. The feeling was not mutual for Reform UK and the Conservatives however, with the latter much preferring the Lib Dems.
It’s only slightly less busy for by-elections the week after this set, with another four up: two in East Ayrshire (Doon Valley and Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse), one in West Lothian (Whitburn and Blackburn) and, probably the most interesting of the bunch, Edinburgh (Colinton and Fairmilehead). These are already over by the time this piece has published, but I’m keeping within the time period…
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)
