As the 2026 Scottish Parliament election approaches, keep up to date with all the latest polling and analysis on Ballot Box Scotland’s Holyrood Hub page!
With the close of nominations on Wednesday, the playing field for May’s election is now immutably set. Sure, there’s still scope for parties to have to disown candidates mid-campaign, but legally speaking those candidates are now unalterable. Yesterday’s piece had a look at the numbers and distribution of those candidates. Today, we can use that information plus recent polling to get a sense of which MSPs might struggle to return to Holyrood.
We already have almost one-third of the chamber (42 MSPs) not coming back due to retirements and a couple of deselections. As set out below there are a further 9 near-guaranteed losses that will take the turnover number above 50 MSPs. That was the record set by the 2016 election, meaning this election is set to give us the freshest batch of MSPs since 1999. Add in those MSPs at serious risk and there’s even the potential for a majority of the chamber to be newly elected!
But who exactly is in the electoral firing line? Who is an almost certain goner, and who has a fighting chance? I’ve tried to compile as comprehensive a list as possible below, but voters are a fickle lot. Don’t assume that any re-contesting MSPs not mentioned here are automatically safe. Likewise, don’t discount the possibility for a radical shift in polling over the last month of the campaign, or for a particular local area to buck national trends and in so doing save or doom someone unexpected.
Almost Certainly Cooked
There are some MSPs whose position is so precarious they are as good as gone. Whilst we should always expect the unexpected in elections, it’d be unwise for those listed here to get their hopes up.
Jeremy Balfour (Independent, Lothian)
Elected as a Conservative in both 2016 and 2021, Balfour quit the party in 2025 citing dissatisfaction at how reactionary it had become. For someone who was previously the parliamentary officer for the Evangelical Alliance to make that criticism speaks to how far to the right his former party have swung. Standing again as an Independent, he’s no Margo MacDonald and simply won’t get the votes needed.
Jamie Greene (Lib Dem, West Scotland)
Having been elected as a socially liberal Davidsonian Conservative in 2016, Greene defected to the Lib Dems in April 2025 in response to the party’s radical rightwards shift. Even if the Lib Dems win a West MSP of their own this time (which seems quite likely), it won’t be Greene, as a longer-established member based in East Dunbartonshire was selected to top the list. For the Lib Dems, the West region may as well be Greater East Dunbartonshire, such is their concentration of support in that pocket.
Ash Regan (Independent, Edinburgh Eastern)
I wrote much of the content for this well in advance of publication, and when I drafted Regan’s section, she was still an Alba MSP. It pointed out Alba had never actually elected anyone, only gained defectors, and that even if she topped the Edinburgh and Lothians East regional list, that was one of the regions least receptive to Independence fundamentalism. Alba don’t even exist anymore, and she’d quit them anyway. She’s got even less chance as an Independent.
Various Conservatives
As the biggest losers, there are lots of Conservatives in line to lose their seats, so rather than give each one their own section, I’m afraid I’m just going to reel them off:
- Sandesh Gulhane (Glasgow); second on list again, currently on track for zero.
- Roz McCall, Alexander Stewart (Mid Scotland and Fife); ranked third and fourth, currently on track for one or two.
- Brian Whittle (South); ranked fifth, currently on track for two or three.
- Pam Gosal (West); ranked third, currently on track for one.
In Real Danger
Other MSPs aren’t anywhere close to guaranteed losers, but the balance of probability is either against them or it’s too close to call.
Karen Adam (SNP, Banffshire and Buchan Coast)
Adam has been MSP for the seat since 2021, when what had previously been a real SNP stronghold was cut down by the Conservatives to one of the barest marginals in the country. A constituency rooted in fishing communities, estimated to be the one area of Scotland that voted Leave in 2016, has soured on the SNP in recent years.
The collapse of the Conservatives might have helped give Adam breathing space, but there’s a new threat in town: Reform UK. They did twice as well in the overlapping Westminster seat as nationally, and if they had any sense they’d be laser-targeting this for a dramatic constituency win.
Jackson Carlaw (Conservative, Eastwood)
A former, albeit briefly serving, Scottish Conservative leader, Carlaw is in an potential electoral standoff with current leader Russel Findlay. Some recent polling has suggested the Conservatives may only end up due one MSP in the West region. If that happens and Carlaw loses his constituency, either to the SNP or to a locally resurgent Labour, then he’s out.
Fergus Ewing (Independent, Inverness and Nairn)
One of very few remaining class of 1999 MSPs, and representing effectively the same seat that whole time, Ewing has finally broken with the party his mother helped put on the map. He’ll be standing against the SNP as an Independent this time. It’s always hard to gauge how long-serving Independents will do, so he certainly shouldn’t be written off.
That said, when you’ve got nearly 15 years in government and 27 as an MSP under your belt, voters may raise an eyebrow at presenting yourself as a force for change. Always one of Scotland’s most socially conservative MSPs, Ewing’s position firmly on the right doesn’t sit well with where the modern SNP have ended up. With Inverness a growing and relatively youthful city, we equally shouldn’t assume long service will automatically see him returned.
Russell Findlay (Conservative, West)
Although he’s not the only leader in this piece, Findlay is both the one more at risk and the one that would actually leave his party briefly leaderless at Holyrood if he loses his seat. That’s because of the potential standoff with party colleague and predecessor-but-one in the leadership, Jackson Carlaw. It the Conservatives are only due one West MSP and Carlaw holds his constituency, it’s farewell Findlay. The window for that is very small, but it’s not impossible.
Monica Lennon (Labour, Central Scotland)
Defeated by Anas Sarwar for the leadership in 2021, and something of a progressive thorn in his side since, Lennon is in a peculiar circumstance. Her “home” constituency is Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, which has a double whammy of moving into South and having been granted a Labour MSP via by-election. She nonetheless secured the Rutherglen and Cambuslang nomination.
That’s put her on the Glasgow list, where she’s ranked behind the sitting Glasgow MSPs. Given she wouldn’t have been elected from 4th in 2021, that’s what I’ve been terming an “effective deselection.” However her constituency is the easiest in the region for Labour to regain, plus an underperformance for Reform could just about squeak her in, so don’t write her off entirely.
Paul McLennan (SNP, East Lothian)
Having knocked Labour out of the East Lothian seat for the first time in Holyrood’s existence in 2021, it’s possible that will have been a one-time deal. The SNP majority here is slender enough that, even with the new version being a smidge better for them, their generally weaker position could easily hand this back to Labour even if the latter make zero progress otherwise. Placed fifth on the list, behind a candidate not in constituencies, losing the constituency likely ejects McLennan entirely.
Marie McNair (SNP, Clydebank and Milngavie)
A former Labour councillor (before going Independent then SNP), McNair is easily the most at-risk SNP MSP in the West Scotland region. That may be in part down to the inclusion of Milngavie and (confusingly) northern Bearsden, which amount to a bit more than 40% of the whole constituency (and probably more of the actual turnout) and are relatively weak for the SNP. At Westminster many of those voters go Lib Dem, but at Holyrood they lean Labour as an anti-SNP vote.
Paul O’Kane (Labour, West Scotland)
Ranked fourth on his party’s list in both 2021 and this year, Labour are currently cruising for just three West MSPs. That’s partly due to the SNP’s proportionality-stretching constituency haul, which would block O’Kane even if Labour didn’t lose any support versus 2021.
Angus Robertson (SNP, Edinburgh Central)
Ruth Davidson pulled off a shock Conservative victory in this constituency in 2016, before the SNP regained it in 2021 in part due to Green voters tactically piling in behind them. They might hope they can repeat that feat. The new Edinburgh Central is not the old Edinburgh Central however. It has shifted away from Conservative-favourable territory to the north onto areas that were in part of the Labour-won Edinburgh Southern. Robertson’s notional majority over Labour is only just outside of traditional marginality. Further, this is now the Greenest seat in the country, with an estimated SNP over Green lead on the list of just 5%.
Similar to his colleague Paul McLennan, Robertson has a relatively poor list placement, ranked fourth, so the only way he gets back in if he loses his constituency is if nearly every other constituency in the region fails to go SNP as well. If you think the Greens don’t have a real chance here, I simply direct you to Robertson’s own obviously panicked electioneering, where he is laughably and falsely claiming he’s competing against the Conservatives. That’s not the behaviour of an MSP unthreatened by a party with a similar voter base, when he could much more honestly be painting Labour as his primary competitor.
Davy Russell (Labour, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse)
The newest MSP at Holyrood is at risk of serving a very short stint. Winning the third easiest seat to gain in the whole country, by 2% of the vote, at a by-election, when Labour were polling about 2-4% better than they are now is not a secure position to be in. If the SNP do manage to pick this one back up, Russell’s miserable 8th place on the list dooms him.
Maree Todd (SNP, Caithness, Sutherland and Ross)
An MSP since 2016, Todd was initially a list MSP for the Highlands and Islands before taking over as constituency MSP here in 2021. She saw off a spirited campaign from the Lib Dems that year, who failed to convert their two prior victories in the overlapping Westminster seat into a win. She is vanishingly unlikely to be so fortunate this time, but if the Lib Dems win constituencies beyond this one, she could get back in on the list, where she has the top spot.
Martin Whitfield (Labour, South)
Paralleling Paul McLennan, who he lost against in East Lothian in 2021, Whitfield has been placed 5th on the Edinburgh and Lothian East list for Labour. That has effectively made East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs a guaranteed knockout for a sitting MSP, as whoever loses is now ranked too low to get back in via the list. This is the easiest constituency for Labour to gain from the SNP, so Whitfield has a good chance, but it’s by no means in the bag.
Various Conservatives
- Sue Webber (Edinburgh and Lothians East); ranked second, on track for one
- Annie Wells (Glasgow); ranked first, on track for zero
- Stephen Kerr (Mid Scotland and Fife); ranked second, on track for one or two
- Douglas Lumsden (North East); ranked second, return depends on how proportionality-busting the SNP constituency haul is and whether the party hold Aberdeenshire West
- Alxander Burnett (Aberdeenshire West); could lose constituency and ranked third, so could be frozen out if SNP sweep the North East seats
- Finlay Carson (Galloway and West Dumfries); could lose constituency and ranked third, if he loses constituency then return depends on how proportionality-busting the SNP constituency haul is
- Sharon Dowey (South Scotland); ranked fourth, on track for two or three, but Ayr could be a route back in if stars align
Worth Having a Backup Plan
Lastly, there are MSPs who are pretty likely to hold their seat, but would foolish to be overconfident about it.
Siobhian Brown (SNP, Ayr)
Although it didn’t matter to the overall seat distribution at Holyrood, Brown managed a remarkable feat by pipping the Conservatives in their longest-held constituency in 2021. John Scott had held this one since winning the first-ever Holyrood by-election in 2000, but lost by a fraction of a percentage point.
That means this is incredibly vulnerable to any decrease in SNP support if not matched by an equal Conservative collapse. Unlike 2021, this could be a must-win for the Conservatives: polling would only have them due three seats in South, so if they hold their three along the border that’s their lot. Picking this back up would allow them to take a leaf out of the SNP’s book and win more than their fair share.
Maggie Chapman (Green, North East)
Chapman has had a lucky escape from the “Almost Certainly Cooked” category. Although she was defeated for re-selection by local activist Guy Ingerson, he was removed as a candidate two days before the close of nominations, moving Chapman back to the top spot. However, the SNP are at risk of such proportionality-busting success in the North East that it’s possible for the Greens to both gain 2% of the vote and lose this seat.
Gillian Mackay (Green, Central Scotland and Lothians West)
The threat to the Green Co-Leader isn’t an expected loss of support but the risk of SNP overrepresentation in the constituencies skewing proportionality. The redrawn version of her region is much more favourable than in 2021, though. Then she squeaked in by just 107 votes, whereas she has a nearly 2000 vote buffer on the new boundaries, but she could still be undone on a poor day if the SNP hold every constituency. She would benefit from the SNP losing a potentially close seat, in this case Uddingston and Bellshill, which only doesn’t feature in this list because the sitting MSP is retiring.
Clare Haughey (SNP, Rutherglen and Cambuslang)
Although Labour’s absolutely rotten polling doesn’t suggest it will actually flip, Rutherglen and Cambuslang is the easiest seat in the Glasgow region for Labour to gain. If they do so, not only does that secure Monica Lennon’s place at Holyrood, but it expels Clare Haughey who isn’t even on the SNP’s Glasgow list.
Gillian Martin (SNP, Aberdeenshire East)
MSP for this seat since 2016, Martin ended up facing one of the closest challenges in 2021. The Conservatives are suffering enough of a loss of support that she’s more likely than not to hold on, but it’s far from certain. The Conservatives hold the Westminster equivalent and managed to cling on in 2024 despite a dire national swing. That may give them a decent local base, but they’ve also been rocked by defections to Reform across Aberdeenshire.
Emma Roddick (SNP, Highlands and Islands)
Elected as a regional MSP in 2021 as the youngest of the intake, Roddick is third on the list and contesting the Inverness and Nairn constituency. If Fergus Ewing does manage a shock Independent victory, given the two candidates ahead of her are in even less winnable seats, it’s highly unlikely she’d get back in even if the SNP was due a list seat.
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)
