With analysis of the real election results out of the way, BBS now turns to one of my pet topics – hypothetical electoral reforms to improve proportionality!
Holyrood
SP21 – Mapping the Marginals
Scotland came into the election with 16 marginal seats, and has left with the same number – though only 12 are the same seats. Tactical voting was a story of the election, and seems to have benefitted Labour and Lib Dems more than Conservatives.
SP21 – Swings and Roundabouts
An election that saw very few seats change hands nonetheless exposed fascinating patterns of shifting party support across Scotland.
SP21 – Where The Votes Came From
The first in a series of deeper dives into the Holyrood results, this piece looks at how each party’s vote share was spread across the country.
SP21 – The Headline Results
With the Holyrood election finally done and dusted, the work begins on digging into the detail of what happened. In this first post-election piece, we start wih the headline figures for each party.
SP21 – Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection
Polling day is finally here! That means it’s time to take one final look at where polling ended up, and how seats could shake out. Warning: if you’re after absolute certainties, you won’t find them here.
Poll Analysis: Survation 30th of April – 4th of May 2021
In the last polling analysis piece of the election, Survation have a narrow SNP majority and an equally narrow Conservative lead over Labour, and add to the stream of polls showing the constitutional pendulum swinging back towards Union.
Poll Analysis: ComRes 30th of April – 4th of May 2021
ComRes break ranks with every other pollster in a dramatic final poll that shows the SNP losing seats versus 2016, including key constituencies, whilst Labour have a rare increase in seats projected, and the Union firmly leads over Independence on that question.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos MORI 30th of April – 3rd of May 2021
Ipsos MORI form part of the general trend of projecting as SNP majorities, though it’d be close run. The Greens remain on a high, whilst the Lib Dems have their worst poll of this term, and the constitutional question is completely tied.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 2nd – 4th of May 2021
The final poll from YouGov shows a record result for the Greens and a substantial SNP majority, the Conservatives holding pretty steady, but weak performances from Labour and the Lib Dems.