Opinium

A bombshell poll from infrequent pollsters Opinium giving the SNP a much healthier lead than would be expected under current circumstances, and Reform UK the status as third party, doesn’t pass the smell test in my view.

This is a lite analysis piece to ensure a poll with delayed publication at a time I’m very busy and about to take a break doesn’t fall off the BBS record entirely.

In just the second poll since this year’s Holyrood election, Opinium find slightly weakened Conservative and Labour shares open a handful of doors for SNP, Green and Lib Dem gains.

In their final poll, Opinium find themselves one of the most positive pollsters for both the SNP and Conservatives, whilst being more pessimistic about the Greens’ chances and finding the constitutional question a completely even split.

After an almost status quo debut, Opinium’s second poll indicates a big SNP majority, whilst Alba record their worst result since launching. Independence is still, you guessed it, on a knife-edge.

The excitement of a poll from a new source is balanced somewhat but it suggesting a result not so very different to 2016. Seats are nearly static, and Independence remains on a margin of error knife-edge.