Poll Analysis (Lite): Opinium 4th -14th of September 2023

Published the day after the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, we’ve got the first (public) Opinium (link to tables) in two years, courtesy of the Tony Blair Institute (link to original writeup) commissioning them for a wider report. Although an Opinium is a long-overdue and welcome contribution to the polling mix at the moment, due to the circumstances I’ve quickly pulled this together as a “Lite” piece rather than my usual full standard offering. The backdating puts this as the 6th of October, the day it was published, but bear in mind the data comes from the first half of September.

I explain what I mean by a “Lite” piece here, and although the previous application of Lite pieces has been down to a non-coverage policy (or I suppose I’d revise that to “part coverage”, given Redfield & Wilton are currently subject to my first genuine non-coverage policy), that isn’t the case here. Opinium aren’t in my bad books, nor is the Tony Blair Institute! Instead, it’s simply the combination of the data being published nearly three weeks after it was taken, and having had a busy few days with the by-election, a much more recent Panelbase, and coming up for a holiday.

I’m only human and there’s only so much time and energy I have available! All that’s missing is my commentary on what the results mean and the Holyrood projection maps (honestly the biggest time sink) – it’s not that this is ignored entirely, as you can still see all the relevant figures below, and the data has been integrated into my trackers. Nonetheless, if you’re feeling conspiratorial about the Biased Green Nationalist Shill at BBS sinking a poll with (comparatively) poor Green figures, you’ll struggle to square that with me also not promoting one that had a lead for Independence, and suggests a continued SNP-Green majority! I’m just sleepy, everyone.

The previous Opinium covered the 3rd – 8th of September 2021. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election).

Regional Vote

Constituency Vote

Seat Projection

Projecting that into seats might give us something like this:

Please see this page for how projections work and important caveats.

If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)