A weaker than average poll for the SNP and best in a while for the Conservatives could suggest a majority remains an unlikely result on Thursday.
Independence
Poll Analysis: Survation 17th – 23rd of April 2026
Overlapping with the BBS poll, a second Survation paints a slightly better picture for the SNP and Greens, versus a poorer Conservative and Reform seat tally. Beware the margin of error though!
BBS Exclusive Poll Analysis: Survation 14th – 21st of April 2026
This BBS-commissioned poll is surprisingly poor for the SNP, but still has a small Pro-Independence majority. Nonetheless, John Swinney will be hoping this is an outlier.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of March – 1st of April 2026
What Labour attempted to convince the media was a good poll for them would still be their worst ever Holyrood result and offer Anas Sarwar no path to Bute House.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 26th – 31st of March 2026
An absolute disaster of a poll for Labour, and the first to ever suggest the Greens could be the largest opposition party. Take that latter idea with a whole heap of salt, of course!
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026
A modest Labour recovery still leaves them too far adrift of the SNP to make an impact. High Green shares also continue, but the constitutional question is notably uncertain.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 10th – 13th of February 2026
The SNP remain hot favourites to win the election, as Labour struggle to stay ahead of Reform and their favoured coalition partners, the Lib Dems, emerge with their worst poll showing in a fair while.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 14th of January 2026
A perhaps eyebrow raisingly high Scottish Reform score from the pollster finding the lowest GB Reform results doesn’t change the fact this is term-worst poll for Labour, who are currently headed for a crushing loss.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 13th – 16th of January 2026
A recovery from a relative low for the Greens is the only standout feature of an otherwise standstill poll, with that standstill being bad news for Labour.
Poll Analysis: Survation 8th – 12th of January 2026
A poll showing relatively little difference over a few months will be reassuring for the SNP, whilst Labour remain trapped in a close fight with Reform for a distant second place.