Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 13th of September 2023
A surprising slide for Labour may have the SNP breathing a sigh of relief, but one poll does not a trend make, so stay tuned for further evidence. […]
Independence
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Survation 15th – 18th of August 2023
Labour’s best poll by every measure since the Independence referendum will be unwelcome reading for the SNP, whilst the Conservatives suffer their own mid-term blues as the pollster takes a flight of fancy with Reform UK. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: YouGov 3rd – 8th of August 2023
A mild recovery for the SNP will be a welcome breather for that party, suggesting they could easily continue their current government with the Greens. Labour nonetheless have one of their best performances in years, coming largely at the expense of a slump for the Conservatives. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 28th of June 2023
If you were expecting the bad polling news to continue for the SNP, you would be correct. Labour continue to inch closer to first place on all votes, whilst Independence support also takes a slight dip. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 12th – 15th of June 2023
More bad polling news for the SNP has Labour nipping at their heels at Holyrood, whilst also failing to find an SNP lead for the first time in a standard Westminster poll since before the Independence Referendum. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Savanta 9th – 14th of June 2023
Another poor poll for the SNP has them tied on the list vote with Labour, whilst the Greens and Lib Dems seemingly bounce back from a minor party squeeze. Despite the SNP’s troubles, the constitutional question is a near tie, with slight advantage to the Union. […]
Articles
The SNP’s Slide Into Summer
Six months ago the SNP were seemingly unchallengeable as Scotland’s largest party, yet an unforeseeably challenging period has left them looking more vulnerable than at any time since the referendum. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Redfield & Wilton 3rd – 5th of June 2023
The fourth outing in a monthly tracker stabilises a little bit, with a still very weak SNP benefitting from Labour’s surge stalling, whilst the Greens record their best ever seat projection and the Constitutional question remains pretty steady with advantage to the Union. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 15th – 21st of May 2023
True to their form, Ipsos give the most favourable SNP figures of anyone in the recent run of polling, and even suggest a lead for Independence. Although the headline figures are outliers, the direction of travel is the same: a sharp loss of SNP support. […]
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Survation 27th of April – 3rd of May 2023
After initially holding out an expectation the SNP-Green government would retain its majority, Survation aligns with the bulk of pollsters in suggesting a Pro-Union majority at Holyrood instead. The constitution nonetheless remains a nearly even split, with advantage to the Union. […]