A statistical tie between constitutional camps for an annual review? Groundbreaking.
Independence
Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of September 2025
Another poll with continued SNP constituency dominance has them within touching distance of a proportionally unearned majority, and Yes remains in the lead.
Poll Analysis: More in Common 21st of August – 1st of September 2025
Why is it that begging for non-Norstat/Survation polls means getting wild ones instead? In their first ever Holyrood outing, More in Common find an eye-poppingly high Lib Dem share and yet more misery for Labour.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 12th – 18th of June 2025
A truly catastrophic poll for the Conservatives, and a perhaps overcooked record set of figures for the Greens, whilst the SNP’s constituency advantage continues to give them far more than their fare share.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 27th – 30th of May 2025
Polling continues to show a bruised Labour allowing the SNP an unjustifiably easy path to victory, whilst Reform make further gains and support for Independence seems to squeak into the majority.
Poll Analysis: Survation 2nd – 5th of May 2025
A shock poll puts Reform UK in second for the first time, but we desperately need additional polling before drawing firm conclusions.
Poll Analysis: Survation 16th – 22nd of April 2025
Labour continue to suffer the effects of the SNP’s constituency dominance, with the suggestion of a Pro-Independence majority at Holyrood. Meanwhile, Reform UK slide back down from an outlier last poll.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 11th – 14th of February 2025
Scottish polling continues to show Labour sliding – and frankly, given their behaviour this week, I am breaking convention to say “good, serves them right.”
2024 in Review: Constitutional Polling
Another year, another slight Independence lead in Winter rooted more in what polls are in the average than a meaningful increase in support. Even as it slips down the agenda however, the constitutional question hasn’t gone away, and both sides have much to do to bring it to a conclusion.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 4th – 6th of December 2024
Another surprisingly dire poll for Labour has them slipping back to 2021 levels, giving the SNP and Greens the first combined majority in months, whilst Independence takes a shock lead.