In just the second poll since this year’s Holyrood election, Opinium find slightly weakened Conservative and Labour shares open a handful of doors for SNP, Green and Lib Dem gains.
Westminster
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 16th – 24th of June 2021
The first full Scottish poll since May’s election has very little to get excited about. All swings are within margin of error, as is the constitutional question, though the trend is now consistently pro-Union.
Airdrie & Shotts By-Election Result
Following on from last week’s Holyrood election, Scotland’s first Westminster by-election in a decade was a very muted affair, giving an expected SNP victory, though with Labour closing the gap.
Poll Analysis: Opinium 28th of April – 3rd of May 2021
In their final poll, Opinium find themselves one of the most positive pollsters for both the SNP and Conservatives, whilst being more pessimistic about the Greens’ chances and finding the constitutional question a completely even split.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 26th of April 2021
A rather belated release of data from Survation finally has them breaking their lonely trend of Labour placing second, slotting them third behind the Conservatives, whilst the SNP appear to fall short of a majority and Greens and Lib Dems score solid gains on 2016.
Poll Analysis: BMG 27th – 30th of April 2021
An infrequent but welcome addition to our polling, BMG have the constitutional question split right down the middle, but a clear majority for the SNP based on constituencies, foiling what should otherwise be a strong Lib Dem performance.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 16th – 20th of April 2021
YouGov find continuing growth for Labour and the Greens, whilst a big slide for the SNP on the list vote is offset by steady constituency figures, and the Union takes the strongest lead over Independence since 2019.
Airdrie and Shotts (UK Parliament) By-Election 13th of May 2021
An SNP MP attempting a move to the identically named Scottish Parliament constituency has led to this by-election. This will be a clear two-horse race between the SNP and Labour, and it seems likely the SNP will hold it.
Poll Analysis: Opinium 1st – 6th of April 2021
After an almost status quo debut, Opinium’s second poll indicates a big SNP majority, whilst Alba record their worst result since launching. Independence is still, you guessed it, on a knife-edge.
Poll Analysis: Survation, 29th – 30th of March 2021
Alba’s first appearance on the polling scene makes more of a ripple than a wave, whilst the issue of Independence is deadlocked at 50:50.