A second poll released in the one week from Survation, this paints a slightly different picture of the SNP gaining a majority. It also includes a proper, standard Independence question, which finds the Union slightly ahead.
Westminster
BMG, 16th – 19th of March 2021
An almost new pollster swells the ranks of those taking the Holyrood temperature, finding majorities for the SNP and Independence, though neither are comfortable, whilst the two big opposition parties lose seats to their smaller counterparts.
Survation, 9th – 12th of March 2021
Another Survation poll with a comparatively positive prognosis for Labour, this is also the first time since the 2019 UK Election that running a poll through my calculator has seen the SNP with fewer seats than they won in 2016.
Opinium, 11th – 16th of March 2021
The excitement of a poll from a new source is balanced somewhat but it suggesting a result not so very different to 2016. Seats are nearly static, and Independence remains on a margin of error knife-edge.
YouGov, 4th – 8th of March 2021
In the second of a trio of polls with overlapping fieldwork dates, YouGov cuts a contrast with the others by suggesting a strong SNP majority despite a reversal in Independence support putting No properly ahead for the first time in a year.
Survation, 25th – 26th of February 2021
This poll brings a year-long streak of Independence leads in polling to a close, with a very narrow lead for the Union. It otherwise brings Survation in line with other pollsters in terms of the ordering of parties by vote share, and results in the narrowest SNP majority in some time.
Throwing Stones in Crumbling Legislatures…
Silly season came early to Scottish political Twitter, as charges of living in a “One Party State” started to appear. These mostly came from outwith Scotland, and the reaction from academics, journalists and politicians here has been absolute exasperation. Ballot Box Scotland was not immune to that feeling…
Survation, 11th-13th of January 2021
Survation maintain their tendency to put Labour ahead of the Conservatives for second, though the weakest poll for the SNP in months still shows them with a majority.
2020 in Review – Parliamentary Polling
A busy year in polling ends with the SNP clear leaders and (currently) on track for a majority, gains for the Greens, weakening Conservatives and Lib Dems, and a degree of stabilisation for Labour.
Survation, 4th-9th of December 2020
Continued leads for the SNP and Independence in this poll are joined by an early Christmas present for Labour, with their first Holyrood poll outside the teens in two years.