With just one week left to go until the General Election, Labour are on track to win big at Westminster for the first time in nearly 15 years, whilst Reform UK eat into the Conservative vote. Meanwhile, Ballot Box Scotland positions on democratic reform are completely and utterly vindicated, with overwhelming public support.
After the previous poll was pretty dire for the SNP, this one has them back in the lead at Holyrood by a wafer-thin margin. Labour meanwhile maintain a clear lead at Westminster, yet Independence remains nearly tied.
The fourth and final entry in the Ballot Box Battlegrounds series for this election covers Perth and Kinross-shire; Mid Dunbartonshire; Dumfries and Galloway; West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine; and North East Fife.
The third entry in the Ballot Box Battlegrounds series for this election covers Aberdeenshire North and Moray East; Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey; Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock; and Lothian East.
The second entry in the Ballot Box Battlegrounds series for this election covers Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy; Gordon and Buchan; Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; and Edinburgh West.
The first entry in the Ballot Box Battlegrounds series for this election covers East Renfrewshire; Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber; and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
Some effects unique to Norstat and the fever of a UK general election campaign makes the Holyrood side of this poll extremely messy. Meanwhile, Labour hold a clear lead for that upcoming election, but it appears everyone’s support has plateaued.
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure a poll with delayed publication at a busy time before an election isn’t ignored entirely, but also doesn’t take up time that would be better spent working on other things.
Tactical voting is always in vogue when Westminster elections roll around, but the phenomenon is poorly understood. Lazy assumptions in Scotland think the Pro-Union parties a coherent bloc, yet only Conservative voters truly think that way, with potentially significant consequences at this election.
Not only have recent polls put Labour ahead of the SNP for the first time since the 2014 Independence Referendum, seat projections suggest a modest advantage in votes may translate to an enormous lead in seats. What’s going on?
