The next election to the UK Parliament has been confirmed for the 4th of July 2024. This page collates all the BBS coverage and analysis ahead of the vote.
Current Average (14th of June)
These charts show the Multi-Pollster average of Scotland-only Westminster polling. This simply takes the most recent poll from each of the different polling agencies (within the normal BBS-tracked series) that have run recent Westminster polling. The starting point on the 1st of January included four polls from Q4 2023, and as the election wasn’t expected until autumn, polls were initially allowed to remain in the average for up to 3 months. For points in the average after the election was called on the 22nd of May, that window narrowed to one month. It will reduce to two weeks at the end of the campaign period.
Polls currently in the average (with link to full BBS writeup):
- Norstat (24th – 28th of May)
- Opinium (5th – 10th of June; no writeup as only Westminster figures)
- Ipsos (3rd – 9th of June; no writeup as only Westminster figures)
- Savanta (24th – 28th of May)
- Survation (23rd – 27th of May)
- More in Common (22nd – 25th of May; no writeup as only Westminster figures)
- YouGov (13th – 17th of May)
Notes: Whilst GB-level polling is much more frequent, the relatively small size of the Scottish sample within those polls means it isn’t statistically useful for examining Scottish voting intention. BBS strongly advises against paying any attention to subsamples from GB-level polls, and instead using much more accurate Scotland-only polling. This warning does not apply to the same degree to MRP or other GB-or-UK-level polls with very large sample sizes that are specifically intended to allow more local constituency predictions, and therefore are more reliable for their Scottish element.
Also note that some pollsters (Survation and Savanta) do not prompt for the Greens or Reform UK. To try and get a better indication of actual support, for those polls I have inferred a value based on their figures with other polls in the average. That should give a slightly better sense of actual support, though makes it a bit less solid than the four Westminster parties. Finally, note that BBS maintains a policy of not reporting on Redfield & Wilton polling due to oddities including being weirdly bouncy.
Seat Projection (14th of June)
As outlined (many years ago now!) in this post, I don’t do full Westminster seat projections the way I do for Holyrood. As Holyrood is partly proportional, a projection can only really be a handful of seats wrong. However, since Westminster is First Past the Post, you can end up very wrong even on small vote shifts. As Westminster has adequate coverage from UK-level polling aggregators, I don’t feel the need to add to the mix. In deference to the importance of the election however, I have pulled together a “simple” model (i.e. unlike Holyrood, I won’t give a seat-by-seat prediction) for an estimated number of seats. For a sanity check, I’ve also listed the Electoral Calculus projection for comparison.
Pre-Election Analysis
Ahead of the election, I’ve written a couple of detailed pieces using past election data to explain some of the most interesting dynamics at play in this election.
Party Profiles
These pieces give a rundown of each party’s history across Westminster elections from 2005 up to 2019, and some thoughts on what a good or bad outcome looks like for them in July.
- SNP
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Lib Dems
- Greens
- Reform UK (15th of June)
Ballot Box Battlegrounds
- Starting the 17th of June!
Elections to the UK Parliament are conducted via the First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system everyone is familiar with. The country is divided into 57 constituencies, each of which elects one Member of Parliament (MP). The party (or candidate, though the vast majority of votes are cast on a party basis) that receives the most votes wins the seat.
FPTP is a fundamentally unfair voting system. As only the largest group of voters in a given constituency win representation, the views of all other voters in that area go unheard in parliament, even though seats have been won in UK elections with as little as 24.5% of the vote. In extreme cases, entire cities, counties and regions can end up represented by MPs of one party, even when hundreds of thousands or even millions of voters have backed other parties.
For the past three elections, Scotland’s delegation to Westminster has been much more heavily SNP than the electorate really is. Lib Dem, Conservative and especially Labour voters have been heavily underrepresented, whilst smaller parties like the Greens have historically stood fewer candidates, spent fewer resources, and received fewer votes than in elections using Proportional Representation (PR).
The next election will be fought on different constituency boundaries than in 2019. Scotland’s Westminster boundaries were last redrawn in 2005, and a review by the non-partisan Boundary Commission for Scotland has created a new set of seats. Ballot Box Scotland has taken an in-depth look at the proposals at each stage of the review from initial, to revised, to final.
As part of this, Scotland’s representation at Westminster will fall from 59 to 57 MPs. Despite some claims to the contrary, there is nothing inherently sinister about this. Seats are distributed based on population, and Scotland’s population has been growing much slower than the population in other parts of the UK. As we now make up a smaller share of the UK’s population, we naturally get apportioned a smaller share of MPs.
How boundaries are drawn can have a significant impact on the number of seats won by each party. This is another deficiency of FPTP, and of voting systems that elect very small numbers of representatives from each area at a time more generally. It is estimated that had the 2019 election been fought on these new boundaries, the Lib Dems would have been the party losing 2 MPs, whilst the other three Westminster parties would have had the same total.
As the boundary changes have been significant, a large number of seats have totally new names and/or don’t look very similar to existing constituencies. The table below compares the new seats with their closest equivalent 2019 seat, as well as showing who would be expected to have won the new seat in 2019.
The table below is a very quick reference to see which parties are standing in your constituency. For simplicity, only parties standing in at least 10 constituencies have been given their own column. All smaller parties are under “Other”. These parties, along with candidate names for all parties, are available on the 2019 Notional Results pages (Aberdeen North to Falkirk here, Glasgow East to West Dunbartonshire here)
Due to the thoroughly antiquated nature of the UK’s democratic systems, it is not possible to be certain how the previous election would have went on the new boundaries. Whilst most other countries, even including the lumbering behemoth that is the United States, will collect and publish data right down to polling district level, in the UK we don’t get that for anything except Scottish local elections, and that’s only because those are counted by machine.
Instead, in order to have a baseline to compare the upcoming election’s results with, “notional” results for the 2019 election on the new boundaries have to be based on estimates rather than confirmed, raw data. Major broadcasters typically commission academics to produce these estimates, which for the new boundaries were published on the 16th of January 2024.
An interactive map showing the headline figures for each constituency is available below. More detailed information, including the exact number of votes per party, a description of the boundary changes, and constituency maps, are available on the following pages. Candidates will also be added to these pages once the Notice of Poll has been published for each constituency.
Estimates compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association. Calculations for Scotland done by Professor David Denver, those for Northern Ireland by Nicholas Whyte.
A total of 12 Scottish MPs are not re-standing at the next General Election. Of these, 10 are retiring and two have been deselected.
- Lisa Cameron, East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (2015) DESELECTED BY SNP
- Defected from the SNP to Conservatives on the day the outcome for the selection contest in her constituency was due to be declared, and also stated she would not run for re-election. Due to the circumstances surrounding this defection, the widely reported dissatisfaction with Cameron in her branch, and the statement by the new SNP candidate that he understood he had beaten her comfortably in the selection, this is a clear cut case of jumping just before being pushed, and is therefore recorded here as a deselection.
- Alister Jack, Dumfries and Galloway (2017)
- Secretary of State for Scotland
- Anticipated to be elevated to the House of Lords in the future
- David Duguid, (2017) DESELECTED
- Duguid was deselected at the last minute whilst recovering in hospital from an illness.
- Party leader Douglas Ross replaced him as candidate, having previously stated his intention to stand down at the election, having served concurrently for three years as MP for Moray (since 2017) and MSP for Highlands and Islands (2016 to 2017; then from 2021)
- Mhairi Black, Paisley and Renfrewshire South (2015)
- Westminster Group Depute Leader (2022-Present)
- Youngest MP elected in the democratic era, 20 at time of election
- Ian Blackford, Ross, Skye and Lochaber (2015)
- Westminster SNP Group Leader (2017-2022)
- Seat abolished in boundary changes
- Douglas Chapman, Dunfermline and West Fife (2015)
- Angela Crawley, Lanark and Hamilton East (2015)
- Patrick Grady, Glasgow North (2015) DESELECTED
- Grady had been suspended from the group for a significant period following allegations of sexual misconduct. Although he was eventually readmitted, he was not allowed to enter the vetting process for candidacy and therefore deselected by default.
- Peter Grant, Glenrothes (2015)
- Stewart Hosie, Dundee East (2005)
- SNP Depute Leader (2014-2016)
- Westminster Group Depute Leader (2015-2017)
- John McNally, Falkirk (2015)
- Philippa Whitford, Central Ayrshire (2015)
