Background
After nearly five months without one, this week finally saw the return of council by-elections in Scotland. Like buses (and the previous week’s Westminster contests), two came along at the same time. In the case of Aberdeen’s George Street and Harbour, where Lib Dem councillor Desmond Buchanan had stood down, this was a true double whammy. It is part of the Aberdeen South constituency which had voted the week before.Â
In my preview, there are two particular things I’d like to draw out. The first was that I expected the already extremely low (possibly the second lowest in the country) turnout to be truly dire as a result of asking voters to turn out a second week on the trot. The second was that this was the weakest part of Aberdeen South for the Conservatives, and I therefore had this marked out as a likely SNP victory. I wrote that preview before the Aberdeen South by-election was won by the Conservatives, but I did not think that changed the circumstances in this ward.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
SNP: Leon Marwick
Change vs 2022 (notional): SNP Hold
Change vs vacating: SNP Gain from Lib Dem
Turnout: 13.3% (-15.1)
Electorate: 13461
Valid: 1761 (98.7%)
Spoiled: 24 (1.3%)
Quota: 881
3 Continuing Councillors:
SNP: Michael HutchisonSNP: Dell Henrickson
Labour: Sandra MacDonald
Candidates
Independent: Aamir Azeem
TUSC: Fred Bayer
Reform UK: Jordan Brown
Lib Dem: Luke Eveling
Green: Charlotte HorneSNP: Leon Marwick
Labour: Edward Obi
Conservative: Marco Oosthuizen
Alliance to Liberate Scotland: Konrad Rekas
First Preferences
Swing vs 2022
Note: a different Independent won 1.8% in 2022.
First Preference History
Two pretty spot-on assessments there, I reckon! Turnout fell by more than half to a miserable 13.3%, though that’s still a smidge better than the 12.4% in Glasgow’s North East ward in 2024. A large part of that will be the fact that already less likely to vote student voters will have already left for the summer by this point. Despite that, the SNP held onto a very easy lead here, even with the sharpest fall of any returning party that saw them slump to pre-IndyRef levels of support, confirming how distinct this ward was from Aberdeen South more widely.
The next hardest fall was felt by Labour, who recorded a worst-ever result for this ward. That placed them only just ahead of the Greens whose loss of support was mildest of any returning party, despite some local ructions recently. Referring again to that point about students, and also just that Green voters are less likely to turn out for by-elections in any case, and I would put money on the Greens placing ahead of Labour at a full election… if one were held right now. That’s a crucial caveat, because next May is a long while away yet, and much could happen between now and then, so I wouldn’t go so far as to say they are guaranteed to place second then!
Reform managed to squeak themselves into double digits, but that didn’t leave them much ahead of the Lib Dems and an Independent who tied for fifth place. That’s enough of a dip for the Lib Dems I would suggest could put them out of contention at the full election, where if the Greens are indeed strengthened, they’ll likely pick up that seat. The Conservative vote actually held up surprisingly well relative to some other recent performances, which might be attributable to their Westminster by-election campaigning.
Lastly, neither of the two micro parties really registered amongst voters. The Alliance to Liberate Scotland placed dead last and didn’t even reach a whole 1%, which suggests that at least for the time being the market for an Alba replacement is even more minimal than Alba’s own support was.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
Given their lead over Labour was approaching 20%, it was a sure thing that the SNP would go on to win this one. That was especially the case when you consider the size of the Green vote and how much more likely that would be to go SNP than Labour. Transfers did nothing to change the order at any point, and sure enough Green transfers went 4:1 to the SNP over Labour, ultimately giving them an easy win.
Looking at that final head-to-head between the SNP and Labour, and its grim for the latter. Despite suffering the worst loss in first preference share of any party, the SNP were almost entirely able to make those back up through transfer rounds, ending up on roughly the same final share as in 2022. Labour however lost roughly a third of their share, recouping very few of the votes lost to Reform and sliding out of the rankings for lots of other parties.
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
Looking at how the vote was distributed, and we’re suffering from the extremely low turnout. Although there are eight polling districts in the ward, the number of boxes below 200 votes meant they ended up merged into three blocs. The SNP therefore seemingly lead in every district, most strongly in he merged set down through much of the eastern half of the ward that my map only has Hanover and Footdee named on. This was also the best patch for TUSC and ALS.
Labour’s strongest area was around George Street and the city centre itself, and it’s worth noting that they were close enough to the SNP across those two districts that it’s not impossible to imagine they might have pipped them in one, but it is impossible to be sure with this data. The Independent and Reform also excelled in this area. Finally, the Greens saw their best results in the northern portion of the ward out to Pittodrie, as did the Lib Dems and Conservatives.
Second Preferences
Looking at direct second preferences, and there’s a lot of our usual stories in here. There’s a strong mutual flow between the SNP and Greens, Reform voters were overwhelmingly more keen on the Conservatives than anyone else, the Lib Dems quite liked Labour, and what few Alliance to Liberate Scotland voters there were had a plurality transfer to the SNP.Â
Some of the other dynamics are not novel but seen less often. Labour voters being more favourable to the SNP than anyone else is not uncommon in weaker areas for the Lib Dems, but as somewhere that had a Lib Dem councillor before this by-election, that’s not how I’d describe this area. Likewise, Conservative voters often do tend towards the Lib Dems, but we’re seeing Reform beginning to eat into that. Finally, it’s not a surprise to see TUSC voters going for the Greens next, it’s just we don’t see TUSC very often.
Separate from all of these party flows were the votes for the Independent candidate. The SNP narrowly pipped Labour as the most popular next choice, but overwhelmingly these were voters to the left of centre: only 4 of Azeem’s 162 voters opted for either the Conservatives or Reform as their second choice.
Our early summer run of by-elections continues on Thursday with Aberdeenshire’s Peterhead South and Cruden. That could be a particularly messy contest, with all of the SNP, Reform and perhaps even Conservatives in the running.
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