Labour cap off a Glasgow hat trick with a notional gain on the SNP versus 2022, but an embarrassing result for the Greens, failing to make headway in a key 2027 target.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Drumchapel and Anniesland
Another Labour victory in spite of slippage caused by the rise of Reform and decent showings by a local Independent and the Greens.
By-Election Result: North East (Glasgow)
Both a Labour win and a strong Reform UK performance were expected here, but it shouldn’t be underplayed how remarkable the latter is.
Poll Analysis: Survation 1st – 15th of November 2024
Another poll showing Labour losing ground compared to the summer, with corresponding shoots of growth for the political right, and the big constitutional question still sitting too close for anybody’s comfort.
By-Election Result: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (2024)
An absolutely stonking Lib Dem victory hands them a seat without the need to pick up a single transfer, albeit their “Conservative-turned Independent-turned Lib Dem” candidate may have been pitch-perfect to pick up votes everywhere at a by-election.
By-Election Result: Doon Valley
Labour would have been in dire trouble if they didn’t win this one, but the fact the Conservatives significantly closed the gap still doesn’t bode well, to say nothing of them pushing the SNP into third.
By-Election Result: Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse
Another Labour win in a ward they’d have been hard pressed to lose based on 2022 results, but with somewhat more modest swings after transfers than they might have hoped.
By-Election Result: Colinton and Fairmilehead
A thumping Lib Dem victory in a ward that would have seemed a solid bet for Labour in 2022 terms.
By-Election Result: Whitburn and Blackburn
Labour manage another expected win, and Reform UK show strong support in a ward well suited to them.
By-Election Result: Mearns
The Conservatives complete a trio of Aberdeenshire victories, against a slumping SNP and surging Lib Dems.