Background
The flurry of by-elections in Scotland continued last week but, mercifully, reduced in intensity with just two on the go. Both of these were from Labour councillors becoming MPs in July. In the case of West Fife and Coastal Villages, said MP was Graeme Downie, who now represents Dunfermline and Dollar.
In my preview for this it was a familiar story: this is a ward that Labour would have won a single-seat election for in 2022, and therefore it was pretty much a certainty to be a Labour win this time. Even allowing for some weaker results than anticipated recently, that is a problem for Labour making gains, not holds.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Labour: Karen Beaton
Change vs 2022 (notional): Labour Hold
Change vs vacating: Labour Hold
Turnout: 19.8% (-25.2)
Electorate: 13577
Valid: 2658 (99.0%)
Spoiled: 26 (1.0%)
Quota: 1330
2 Continuing Councillors:
SNP: Sam Steele
Conservative: Conner Young
Candidates
Labour: Karen Beaton
Lib Dem: Paul Buchanan-Quigley
Green: Fiona McOwan
Independent: George MortonConservative: David Ross
Family: Danny SmithSNP: Paul Steele
First Preferences
Note: Alba won 1.4% and Independent Martin Keatings 0.8% in 2022.
First Preference History
I wasn’t wrong, but in the absence of a Reform UK candidate this actually ended up something of a damp squib compared to other elections. No dramatic swings, no new parties bursting onto the scene, no kitchen sink throwing from anyone to try and win it from a standing start. The biggest shift in vote share here was just shy of -3% for the SNP, but that’s really not all that much compared to recent losses. Combined with Labour’s share increasing by less than a percentage point, that created a near-tie, with Labour ahead by just two votes.
Fife is obsessed with two vote margins – most famously North East Fife in the 2017 UK General Election, but also in Dunfermline Central in a 2019 by-election. Unlike those prior cases though this wasn’t a two vote margin determining victory, it was just at first preferences. Frustratingly, a few outlets incorrectly reported this as Labour winning by two votes. We’ve had STV for 17 years in Scotland, but so many people still just assume everything is First Past the Post! I might have been able to swoop in more and offer corrections (though I did at least get one local paper to fix it) had I not been busy that day, alas.
Anyway, continuing down our rankings, the absence of Reform UK may go some way to explaining why the Conservatives were only down by a point rather than more substantially. The largest positive swing was towards the Lib Dems, in an area they have historic strength in but I don’t believe were making any real play for. The Greens too also saw a modest uptick in their vote, which isn’t always a given for them at by-elections give it’s their voters that don’t turn out, and although placing last behind the Fife-Sovereigntist Independent, the Family Party also saw their share increase a smidge.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
Not to belabour the point that Labour did not win by two votes, but after the transfer process they in fact led by one hundred and thirty-two votes. As in so many other cases that was the only direct transfers could go, given the Pro-Union lean of what was up for grabs. Notably however what was already a very small swing of just 1.7% from the SNP to Labour on first preferences becomes an utterly inconsequential 0.1% swing after transfers.
To get a result like this when Reform UK weren’t even muddying the waters this time further adds to the sense that Scottish Labour aren’t entirely “back”. Certainly their result in July was impressive and I think it’d be foolish to write them off on the basis of a rocky start to government, but the general trend of recent by-elections has I think underlined the scale of the challenge facing Labour when they aren’t just able to sit pretty and rely on the distorting effect of First Past the Post.
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
There are a lot of quite small villages in this ward and turnout was very low, which means quite a lot of box mergers. Labour ended up leading in the mergers that included Culross, Valleyfield, Blairhall, Saline, Oakley and Cairneyhill, whilst the SNP were out in front in Kincardine, Torryburn, Comrie and Carnock.
Of those blocs, Culross, Valleyfield and Blairhall was strongest for Labour (and the Independent), and for the SNP it was Kincardine. All of the Conservatives, Greens and Family had their best bit in the districts covering Torryburn and Comrie, with the Lib Dems peaking in Carnock.
Second Preferences
Data for second preferences is not available yet – really does just seem to be something in the election data waters recently. Given last week’s exhausting slog getting Glasgow data though, I just wanted to get this piece done ASAP.
Much to my relief, the by-elections are about to dry up. This week we again have just two votes on the go, a return to Glasgow for Partick East and Kelvindale, and a Stirling by-election that isn’t for Dunblane and Bridge of Allan, but instead Stirling East. I might be able to report the PEK result the night before, if it counts quick enough, but assuming Stirling is a daytime count I’ll be in the office and then socialising so won’t be able to report that until Saturday.
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)
