A by-election arising from deeply unsavoury behaviour should have been an easy SNP win if times were good for them. Since they weren’t, it was instead an unsurprising Labour victory.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
GE24 Party Profile: Scottish Green Party
The Greens aren’t going to win anything at this election, being the only non-proportional vote in Scotland, but they are standing the most candidates they ever have for Westminster.
GE24 Party Profile: Scottish Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems are a shadow of their former selves in Scotland, but the UK’s primary supporters of PR have one key advantage in this election: their ability to play the First Past the Post game phenomenally well.
GE24 Party Profile: Scottish Conservatives
The Scottish Conservatives started this campaign in the odd position that although, like their English counterparts, support was plummeting, the fact it was happening to the SNP too could have saved all of their seats. And then Douglas Ross did something very stupid.
GE24 Party Profile: Scottish Labour
It’s been a miserable old time for Scottish Labour over the past few years, struggling to be heard and slipping from dominant party into third place. All of that looks set to change this election, as the party surges back into the lead.
GE24 Party Profile: Scottish National Party
After nearly fifteen years as the unbeatable titans of Scottish politics, the SNP look set for a bruising defeat that will bring an end to their period of dominance.
Poll Analysis (Lite): YouGov 3rd – 7th of June 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure a poll with delayed publication at a busy time before an election isn’t ignored entirely, but also doesn’t take up time that would be better spent working on other things.
GE24: You Scratch My Back, I Won’t Scratch Yours
Tactical voting is always in vogue when Westminster elections roll around, but the phenomenon is poorly understood. Lazy assumptions in Scotland think the Pro-Union parties a coherent bloc, yet only Conservative voters truly think that way, with potentially significant consequences at this election.
GE24: Why Scottish Labour can win big on a narrow lead
Not only have recent polls put Labour ahead of the SNP for the first time since the 2014 Independence Referendum, seat projections suggest a modest advantage in votes may translate to an enormous lead in seats. What’s going on?
Poll Analysis: Savanta 24th – 28th of May 2024
The second Savanta poll in the space of a few weeks offers a Weird Burger, with some odd Holyrood numbers sandwiched between no change on the Westminster and Independence figures.