After nearly fifteen years as the unbeatable titans of Scottish politics, the SNP look set for a bruising defeat that will bring an end to their period of dominance.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Poll Analysis (Lite): YouGov 3rd – 7th of June 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure a poll with delayed publication at a busy time before an election isn’t ignored entirely, but also doesn’t take up time that would be better spent working on other things.
GE24: You Scratch My Back, I Won’t Scratch Yours
Tactical voting is always in vogue when Westminster elections roll around, but the phenomenon is poorly understood. Lazy assumptions in Scotland think the Pro-Union parties a coherent bloc, yet only Conservative voters truly think that way, with potentially significant consequences at this election.
GE24: Why Scottish Labour can win big on a narrow lead
Not only have recent polls put Labour ahead of the SNP for the first time since the 2014 Independence Referendum, seat projections suggest a modest advantage in votes may translate to an enormous lead in seats. What’s going on?
Poll Analysis: Savanta 24th – 28th of May 2024
The second Savanta poll in the space of a few weeks offers a Weird Burger, with some odd Holyrood numbers sandwiched between no change on the Westminster and Independence figures.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 27th of May 2024
The first full Scotland-only poll of the general election campaign will put even more of a spring in Scottish Labour’s step, but this isn’t the start John Swinney will have wanted to his time as First Minister.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 13th – 17th of May 2024
What is overall the best poll since BBS was established for Scottish Labour makes for grim reading for the SNP and Conservatives, whilst the Greens continue to vastly outperform against consistently flawed analysis of the party’s support base.
By-Election Preview: Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) 13th of June 2024
The sad passing of a popular local Independent with a near quarter-century of service under his belt seems likely to go to another Independent, though failing that, it would be the Lib Dems.
By-Election Preview: Clydebank Central (West Dunbartonshire) 13th of June 2024
A by-election arising in utterly vile circumstances would at any other time be an easy SNP win, but under current conditions it’s Labour with the advantage.
By-Election Result: Kilwinning
Absolutely no surprises as Labour swept to an easy victory in a ward they’ve done nothing but grow in strength within over the past few elections.