The worst poll since the Independence referendum for the SNP is the best for Labour, but the constitutional question itself remains significantly less volatile.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Scottish Parliament Boundary Review 2: Revised Proposals
Revised proposals for new Scottish Parliament constituencies no longer hand the SNP a notional 2021 majority, but demonstrate the incredible difficulty of getting seats around Glasgow and Edinburgh to make sense.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of April – 3rd of May 2024
The first poll following Humza Yousaf’s resignation as First Minister makes for grim reading for his successor. A buoyant Labour Party seems reasonable, but some oddities here with Reform UK and Alba shares.
By-Election Result: Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim
No surprises that the Conservatives won this Angus contest, though the absence of Independents from the ballot for the first time has made everyone’s swing a bit misleading.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 26th – 29th of April 2024
In a highly comedic turn of events, a poll conducted at the height of Humza Yousaf’s final crisis-stricken days before resigning finds… statistically no change on the last poll, everything within margin of error. Ah, Scotland.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 9th – 12th of April 2024
An especially weak poll for the SNP also comes with surprising Labour slumps, with a perhaps rather unbelievable gain for the Lib Dems as a counterbalance.
By-Election Result: Inverness South
What was pegged as the SNP’s best bet at a by-election win for a long time ends in tears, with an excruciatingly poor first preference tally, leaving an Independent and the Lib Dems to fight it out for the seat.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 25th of March – 2nd of April 2024
The first BBS-tracked poll in two months will be difficult reading for both the SNP and Conservatives, whilst giving Labour reasons to be cheerful, and suggesting some perhaps exaggeratedly high Reform UK shares.
Kilwinning (North Ayrshire) By-Election 9th of May 2024
The sad passing of a Conservative councillor triggers a by-election that Labour simply cannot lose, in what is easily their strongest ward in North Ayrshire, and one of their strongest anywhere in Scotland.
By-Election Preview: Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim (Angus) 25th of April 2024
The departure of an Independent who previously led the council may not be welcome for his former foes in the SNP, as it sets up a contest the Conservatives are probably the favourites for at the moment.