An especially weak poll for the SNP also comes with surprising Labour slumps, with a perhaps rather unbelievable gain for the Lib Dems as a counterbalance.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Inverness South
What was pegged as the SNP’s best bet at a by-election win for a long time ends in tears, with an excruciatingly poor first preference tally, leaving an Independent and the Lib Dems to fight it out for the seat.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 25th of March – 2nd of April 2024
The first BBS-tracked poll in two months will be difficult reading for both the SNP and Conservatives, whilst giving Labour reasons to be cheerful, and suggesting some perhaps exaggeratedly high Reform UK shares.
Kilwinning (North Ayrshire) By-Election 9th of May 2024
The sad passing of a Conservative councillor triggers a by-election that Labour simply cannot lose, in what is easily their strongest ward in North Ayrshire, and one of their strongest anywhere in Scotland.
By-Election Preview: Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim (Angus) 25th of April 2024
The departure of an Independent who previously led the council may not be welcome for his former foes in the SNP, as it sets up a contest the Conservatives are probably the favourites for at the moment.
By-Election Preview: Inverness South (Highland) 11th of April 2024
A Lib Dem resignation after their weakest result in the ward yet gives the SNP their best shot at a by-election win in 18 months. Yet, Highland Lib Dems are nothing if not unpredictable, and may yet surge to success here.
By-Election Result: Hillhead
Attempts by the far-right masquerading as “Independent Green Voice” fail to prevent the legitimate Greens winning a historic first ever by-election victory, as Labour continue to show strong signs of recovery.
By-Election Preview: Stromness and South Isles (Orkney) 28th of March 2024
The resignation of Orkney Island Council’s Leader has led to a by-election with just two candidates, pitting a former councillor who hasn’t yet actually won a vote against what could be the first woman councillor for the ward.
By-Election Result: Jedburgh and District
The Conservatives saw an expectedly easy victory in one of their strongest wards, whilst Labour managed what is in context a very impressive result.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 25th – 31st of January 2024
Ipsos continue to show generally better figures for the SNP and Independence than other pollsters, but also follow the clear trend of a narrowing gap between the SNP and Labour contrasted with almost no movement on the constitution.