A Lib Dem resignation after their weakest result in the ward yet gives the SNP their best shot at a by-election win in 18 months. Yet, Highland Lib Dems are nothing if not unpredictable, and may yet surge to success here.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Hillhead
Attempts by the far-right masquerading as “Independent Green Voice” fail to prevent the legitimate Greens winning a historic first ever by-election victory, as Labour continue to show strong signs of recovery.
By-Election Preview: Stromness and South Isles (Orkney) 28th of March 2024
The resignation of Orkney Island Council’s Leader has led to a by-election with just two candidates, pitting a former councillor who hasn’t yet actually won a vote against what could be the first woman councillor for the ward.
By-Election Result: Jedburgh and District
The Conservatives saw an expectedly easy victory in one of their strongest wards, whilst Labour managed what is in context a very impressive result.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 25th – 31st of January 2024
Ipsos continue to show generally better figures for the SNP and Independence than other pollsters, but also follow the clear trend of a narrowing gap between the SNP and Labour contrasted with almost no movement on the constitution.
By-Election Preview: Hillhead (Glasgow) 7th of March 2024
The sad passing of a local Labour stalwart triggers one of the most interesting council by-elections yet, the first time Ballot Box Scotland has predicted the Greens as the most likely winners.
Wales Special: Snooping on the Senedd Reform
A bonus longer read takes a look at proposals to reform the Senedd Cymru, as part of a somewhat less fraught Welsh approach to constitutional reform.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 25th of January 2024
A second January poll covering the same dates gives almost identical results, though with the strongest Labour seat projection since BBS was launched in 2018.
By-Election Result: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (2024)
In what is hopefully the last vote in Dunblane and Bridge of Allan until 2027, the Conservatives emerge with an expected victory, whilst Labour surge to their second best share yet.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of January 2024
The first BBS Standard Series poll of 2024 brings a new name for an old friend, suggesting a particularly tricky distribution of seats at Holyrood and yet a straight tie on the big constitutional question.