An SNP-caused vacancy in one of the strongest Conservative wards in Scotland can only go one way – Conservative.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
GE24: It’s All Notional
Context Yesterday morning (16th of January), a big data drop nerds across the country have been … GE24: It’s All NotionalRead more
2023 in Review: Constitutional Polling
Though the polls included in the BBS average may slightly exaggerate support for Independence, however you slice it support for that option is running ahead of support for the parties advocating it. This could have interesting consequences down the line.
2023 in Review: Parliamentary Polling
An unexpectedly chaotic year for the SNP started with Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation, and ends with Labour nipping at their heels in both parliaments.
2023 in Review: Council By-Elections
2023’s Annual Reviews are slightly later than the past couple of years, falling in the hazy … 2023 in Review: Council By-ElectionsRead more
By-Election Preview: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) 25th of January 2024
A third vote in less then two years for this ward, the Conservatives won a March 2023 by-election here so it’s hard to envision them not winning a January 2024 one.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 20th – 26th of November 2023
Ipsos continue to paint a slightly different picture to other pollsters, with higher support for the SNP leading to a continued SNP-Green majority at Holyrood, and a lead for Independence. The Lib Dems end up the big Holyrood gainers in this poll, whilst it’s bad news all round for the Conservatives.
By-Election Result: Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig
Labour sweep to an easy victory in their first proper (nuances of STV in mind) council-level victory over the SNP since the change in First Minister, whilst a Conservative collapse put the Greens within touching distance of third place.
Scoop Analysis: 20th – 25th of October 2023
The third and final Scoop of 2023 continues to show a very strong Labour performance at Westminster, whilst the SNP’s Holyrood lead withers to almost nothing. The constitutional question is also a lot less closely run than in other recent polls, sitting at status quo 2014.
By-Election Result: South Kintyre
An Independent storms to victory to succeed her father, whilst the SNP and Conservatives slump to record lows in the ward.