The first fully post-Rutherglen poll has everything – Holyrood, Westminster and the Constitution – on an absolute knife edge, though in seat terms both parliaments would be headed for a significant Pro-Union parties majority.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig (North Lanarkshire) 16th of November 2023
The first genuine SNP vs Labour defence at council level of the year looks set to be another Labour victory, on a council the SNP have hardly had their troubles to seek over the past 18 months.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 2nd – 6th of October 2023
After a run of stubborn SNP-Green majorities, YouGov finally join the rest of the polling pack with vote shares suggestive of a majority for the Pro-Union bloc.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 2nd – 5th of October 2023
A bruising weak for the SNP continues with another poll where the Holyrood advantage goes clearly to Labour, whilst the constitutional question remains (to nobody’s surprise) stubbornly close.
By-Election Result: Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Labour absolutely romp home in a stunning victory that leaves the SNP badly bruised in the face of a massive majority and steep swing against them.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Opinium 4th -14th of September 2023
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure a poll with delayed publication at a time I’m very busy and about to take a break doesn’t fall off the BBS record entirely.
By-Election Preview: South Kintyre (Argyll and Bute) 2nd of November 2023
A very popular local Independent leaves the door wide open for the SNP, Conservatives, or perhaps even his daughter.
By-Election Result: Tain and Easter Ross
A Lib Dem vacancy in the historically Independent Highlands proved the perfect opportunity to add to the non-partisan bloc on the council.
By-Election Result: Girvan and South Carrick
The Conservatives score a big victory in a by-election without a strong Independent, meaning there’s more nuance to this one than the headline figures suggest.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 13th of September 2023
A surprising slide for Labour may have the SNP breathing a sigh of relief, but one poll does not a trend make, so stay tuned for further evidence.