A third vote in less then two years for this ward, the Conservatives won a March 2023 by-election here so it’s hard to envision them not winning a January 2024 one.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 20th – 26th of November 2023
Ipsos continue to paint a slightly different picture to other pollsters, with higher support for the SNP leading to a continued SNP-Green majority at Holyrood, and a lead for Independence. The Lib Dems end up the big Holyrood gainers in this poll, whilst it’s bad news all round for the Conservatives.
By-Election Result: Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig
Labour sweep to an easy victory in their first proper (nuances of STV in mind) council-level victory over the SNP since the change in First Minister, whilst a Conservative collapse put the Greens within touching distance of third place.
Scoop Analysis: 20th – 25th of October 2023
The third and final Scoop of 2023 continues to show a very strong Labour performance at Westminster, whilst the SNP’s Holyrood lead withers to almost nothing. The constitutional question is also a lot less closely run than in other recent polls, sitting at status quo 2014.
By-Election Result: South Kintyre
An Independent storms to victory to succeed her father, whilst the SNP and Conservatives slump to record lows in the ward.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 6th – 11th of October 2023
The first fully post-Rutherglen poll has everything – Holyrood, Westminster and the Constitution – on an absolute knife edge, though in seat terms both parliaments would be headed for a significant Pro-Union parties majority.
By-Election Preview: Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig (North Lanarkshire) 16th of November 2023
The first genuine SNP vs Labour defence at council level of the year looks set to be another Labour victory, on a council the SNP have hardly had their troubles to seek over the past 18 months.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 2nd – 6th of October 2023
After a run of stubborn SNP-Green majorities, YouGov finally join the rest of the polling pack with vote shares suggestive of a majority for the Pro-Union bloc.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 2nd – 5th of October 2023
A bruising weak for the SNP continues with another poll where the Holyrood advantage goes clearly to Labour, whilst the constitutional question remains (to nobody’s surprise) stubbornly close.
By-Election Result: Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Labour absolutely romp home in a stunning victory that leaves the SNP badly bruised in the face of a massive majority and steep swing against them.