This is a lite analysis piece to ensure a poll with delayed publication at a time I’m very busy and about to take a break doesn’t fall off the BBS record entirely.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: South Kintyre (Argyll and Bute) 2nd of November 2023
A very popular local Independent leaves the door wide open for the SNP, Conservatives, or perhaps even his daughter.
By-Election Result: Tain and Easter Ross
A Lib Dem vacancy in the historically Independent Highlands proved the perfect opportunity to add to the non-partisan bloc on the council.
By-Election Result: Girvan and South Carrick
The Conservatives score a big victory in a by-election without a strong Independent, meaning there’s more nuance to this one than the headline figures suggest.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 13th of September 2023
A surprising slide for Labour may have the SNP breathing a sigh of relief, but one poll does not a trend make, so stay tuned for further evidence.
By-Election Preview: Rutherglen and Hamilton West (UK Parliament) 5th of October 2023
The long saga of Rutherglen and Hamilton West finally draws to a close with a by-election that couldn’t come at a worse time for the SNP – or a better time for Labour.
By-Election Preview: Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) 28th of September 2023
The Lib Dems are given a clearer run at winning the seat vacated by one of their own councillors, as a popular Independent chooses not to attempt a return.
Poll Analysis: Survation 15th – 18th of August 2023
Labour’s best poll by every measure since the Independence referendum will be unwelcome reading for the SNP, whilst the Conservatives suffer their own mid-term blues as the pollster takes a flight of fancy with Reform UK.
By-Election Preview: Girvan and South Carrick (South Ayrshire) 21st of September 2023
Our first autumn by-election goes to South Ayrshire, which had barely a peep of political interest in the last term, as the SNP group leader’s resignation opens the way for a likely Conservative victory.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 3rd – 8th of August 2023
A mild recovery for the SNP will be a welcome breather for that party, suggesting they could easily continue their current government with the Greens. Labour nonetheless have one of their best performances in years, coming largely at the expense of a slump for the Conservatives.