The long saga of Rutherglen and Hamilton West finally draws to a close with a by-election that couldn’t come at a worse time for the SNP – or a better time for Labour.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) 28th of September 2023
The Lib Dems are given a clearer run at winning the seat vacated by one of their own councillors, as a popular Independent chooses not to attempt a return.
Poll Analysis: Survation 15th – 18th of August 2023
Labour’s best poll by every measure since the Independence referendum will be unwelcome reading for the SNP, whilst the Conservatives suffer their own mid-term blues as the pollster takes a flight of fancy with Reform UK.
By-Election Preview: Girvan and South Carrick (South Ayrshire) 21st of September 2023
Our first autumn by-election goes to South Ayrshire, which had barely a peep of political interest in the last term, as the SNP group leader’s resignation opens the way for a likely Conservative victory.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 3rd – 8th of August 2023
A mild recovery for the SNP will be a welcome breather for that party, suggesting they could easily continue their current government with the Greens. Labour nonetheless have one of their best performances in years, coming largely at the expense of a slump for the Conservatives.
Summer Special: What if the Greens contested every constituency?
The Greens’ absence from most constituencies is a widely known feature of Scottish politics. The reasons why, however, are much less weel-kent, and the absence hasn’t been complete, allowing a reasonable guess at an alternative 2021 outcome.
By-Election Result: East Kilbride West
With a Labour victory already all but assured in this by-election, a second place for the Conservatives was further salt in the wound for the struggling SNP.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 28th of June 2023
If you were expecting the bad polling news to continue for the SNP, you would be correct. Labour continue to inch closer to first place on all votes, whilst Independence support also takes a slight dip.
Westminster Boundary Review 2023: Finally, the End
After two aborted reviews and two rounds of redrawing for this third review, it looks like Scotland is getting new UK Parliament Constituencies. This piece takes a quick look over these final proposals.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 12th – 15th of June 2023
More bad polling news for the SNP has Labour nipping at their heels at Holyrood, whilst also failing to find an SNP lead for the first time in a standard Westminster poll since before the Independence Referendum.