The first by-election since Humza Yousaf took office came under dire circumstances both nationally and locally, leading to exactly the easy Labour victory I’d predicted.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Poll Analysis: Savanta 9th – 14th of June 2023
Another poor poll for the SNP has them tied on the list vote with Labour, whilst the Greens and Lib Dems seemingly bounce back from a minor party squeeze. Despite the SNP’s troubles, the constitutional question is a near tie, with slight advantage to the Union.
The SNP’s Slide Into Summer
Six months ago the SNP were seemingly unchallengeable as Scotland’s largest party, yet an unforeseeably challenging period has left them looking more vulnerable than at any time since the referendum.
Scoop Analysis: 9th – 13th of June 2023
This is a backdated “Lite” entry for the June 2023 edition of Scoop, to ensure there is no gap in the BBS archives.
By-Election Preview: East Kilbride West (South Lanarkshire) 6th of July 2023
An SNP-triggered by-election in the only East Kilbride ward they weren’t overall winners in 2022 comes at the worst possible time for the party and seems almost certain to go Labour’s way.
Poll Analysis: Redfield & Wilton 3rd – 5th of June 2023
The fourth outing in a monthly tracker stabilises a little bit, with a still very weak SNP benefitting from Labour’s surge stalling, whilst the Greens record their best ever seat projection and the Constitutional question remains pretty steady with advantage to the Union.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 15th – 21st of May 2023
True to their form, Ipsos give the most favourable SNP figures of anyone in the recent run of polling, and even suggest a lead for Independence. Although the headline figures are outliers, the direction of travel is the same: a sharp loss of SNP support.
Scottish Parliament Boundary Review 2: Initial Proposals
Holyrood’s boundaries are up for review for the second time. Alongside the usual drama around what has and hasn’t shifted and how much that makes local politicians seethe, the changes suggest a notional SNP majority in 2021 terms.
By-Election Preview: Bellshill (North Lanarkshire) 15th of June 2023
Former councillor, and briefly council leader, Jordan Linden’s departure caps off a period of absolute chaos for the local SNP group, leaving the by-election wide open for a Labour win.
Poll Analysis: Survation 27th of April – 3rd of May 2023
After initially holding out an expectation the SNP-Green government would retain its majority, Survation aligns with the bulk of pollsters in suggesting a Pro-Union majority at Holyrood instead. The constitution nonetheless remains a nearly even split, with advantage to the Union.