2022 is off to a fiery start as seemingly the entire Holyrood wing of the Conservatives launch into open revolt against Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Some commentators are talking about a new political party, echoing Murdo Fraser’s 2011 campaign pledge.
For one final look back at 2021, we’re looking at the constitutional twists and turns in a year that started with a lead for Independence and ends with one for the Union.
The months following an election are never the busiest time for polling, but what there is to end the year finds everyone else at Holyrood gaining at least a little at the Conservatives’ expense.
STV proved typically messy throughout 2021, with a mighty 22 by-elections giving the SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems electoral gains since 2017, whilst Labour fell backwards.
The last by-election of the year, and second last of the term, gives an expected Conservative victory in a largely rural ward, where Independents rather than the SNP were their main challengers.
What is definitely, this time, the last by-election of the term follows the sad passing of a very long-serving Labour councillor. They’ll have the edge here, but there’s been a lot of change since 2017 that could see them facing a stiff challenge.
A Highland surprise with no strong Independent results leads to an easy SNP victory over partially strengthened Conservatives, and an unexpectedly solid third place for the Greens.
Rounding out the set for 2017 by-elections, this trip in our electoral TARDIS takes us to a vote that arose from a Labour councillor taking the step up to Westminster.
A dramatic poll showing an Independence lead cuts a stark contrast to the Union-leaning stasis of other pollsters. The leading parties in that bloc also see themselves with positive vote figures, with only the Lib Dems finding any cheer amongst a grim poll for pro-Union parties.
YouGov’s first post-election poll has bad news for the Conservatives but happier tidings for the Greens and Lib Dems, alongside some very interesting findings on a multi question constitutional referendum.
