What is definitely, this time, the last by-election of the term follows the sad passing of a very long-serving Labour councillor. They’ll have the edge here, but there’s been a lot of change since 2017 that could see them facing a stiff challenge.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Fort William and Ardnamurchan
A Highland surprise with no strong Independent results leads to an easy SNP victory over partially strengthened Conservatives, and an unexpectedly solid third place for the Greens.
Back Catalogue Bonus: Rutherglen Central and North 23rd of November 2017
Rounding out the set for 2017 by-elections, this trip in our electoral TARDIS takes us to a vote that arose from a Labour councillor taking the step up to Westminster.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos MORI 22nd – 29th of November 2021
A dramatic poll showing an Independence lead cuts a stark contrast to the Union-leaning stasis of other pollsters. The leading parties in that bloc also see themselves with positive vote figures, with only the Lib Dems finding any cheer amongst a grim poll for pro-Union parties.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 18th – 22nd of November 2021
YouGov’s first post-election poll has bad news for the Conservatives but happier tidings for the Greens and Lib Dems, alongside some very interesting findings on a multi question constitutional referendum.
Back Catalogue Bonus: Perth City South 23rd of November 2017
This week’s rummage in the 2017 archives brings us to another ward that has had two by-elections in this term, when a Conservative councillor resigned early on, for grim reasons.
LE22 Crowdfunder
I’m taking one small step for polling, one giant leap for Ballot Box Scotland by launching a dedicated crowdfunder to expand my coverage ahead of the 2022 Local Elections, to fund a poll and a series of articles.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 9th – 12th of November 2021
Though polling hasn’t yet strayed much from May’s election results, the oscillation here gives strong figures for the SNP, Greens and Lib Dems, whilst showing the Conservatives in their weakest position of the term thus far.
Back Catalogue Bonus: Inverurie and District 12th of October 2017
This early-term by-election followed a remarkable hat trick for a Conservative who was elected councillor, councillor again, then MP all within the space of a year.
By-Election Preview: Lomond North (Argyll & Bute) 16th of December 2021
The most surprising of our end of term by-elections comes from a last-minute resignation, where the Conservatives seem the clear favourites, with their only real challengers likely to be an Independent.