An infrequent but welcome addition to our polling, BMG have the constitutional question split right down the middle, but a clear majority for the SNP based on constituencies, foiling what should otherwise be a strong Lib Dem performance.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 28th – 30th of April 2021
A second poll in as many days for Panelbase tells a very different story, with an SNP majority and comparatively weak results for the Greens and Labour, whilst the constitutional pendulum swings narrowly towards Independence.
Poll Analysis: ComRes 23rd – 27th of April 2021
Following just a week after the last one, ComRes continue to find SNP slippages, whilst the Greens and Labour move upwards, and the constitutional question shows the largest support for Union since December 2019.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 21st – 26th of April 2021
Panelbase continue their unique streak of finding Alba twice as strong as anyone else, whilst the weakest overall poll for the SNP this year projects to them losing seats versus 2016.
Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 22nd of April 2021
Survation continue their trend of being the outlier putting Labour in second, with their best result since late 2018, whilst a low point for the SNP’s regional list vote may be rendered moot by a clear lead in constituencies.
SP21 – What Happened to the SNP’s Majority in 2016?
“Will the SNP win a majority?” is one of this election’s biggest questions – but what happened that meant they lost it in 2016? Spoiler: It wasn’t the Greens, but instead serious setbacks in the SNP’s historic heartlands.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 16th – 20th of April 2021
YouGov find continuing growth for Labour and the Greens, whilst a big slide for the SNP on the list vote is offset by steady constituency figures, and the Union takes the strongest lead over Independence since 2019.
Poll Analysis: ComRes 16th – 20th of April 2021
This poll finds the best result for the Conservatives and the Union in over a year, whilst the other Holyrood parties suffer and fringe parties seemingly surge – though Alba slips beneath the waves.
SP21 – The Jaikets on Shoogly Pegs
It’s not an election without a few sitting representatives being sent packing by the electorate – or, sometimes, their own party! In this piece, we go through the unlucky 13 recent polling put in the toughest position.
Airdrie and Shotts (UK Parliament) By-Election 13th of May 2021
An SNP MP attempting a move to the identically named Scottish Parliament constituency has led to this by-election. This will be a clear two-horse race between the SNP and Labour, and it seems likely the SNP will hold it.