“Will the SNP win a majority?” is one of this election’s biggest questions – but what happened that meant they lost it in 2016? Spoiler: It wasn’t the Greens, but instead serious setbacks in the SNP’s historic heartlands.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Poll Analysis: YouGov 16th – 20th of April 2021
YouGov find continuing growth for Labour and the Greens, whilst a big slide for the SNP on the list vote is offset by steady constituency figures, and the Union takes the strongest lead over Independence since 2019.
Poll Analysis: ComRes 16th – 20th of April 2021
This poll finds the best result for the Conservatives and the Union in over a year, whilst the other Holyrood parties suffer and fringe parties seemingly surge – though Alba slips beneath the waves.
SP21 – The Jaikets on Shoogly Pegs
It’s not an election without a few sitting representatives being sent packing by the electorate – or, sometimes, their own party! In this piece, we go through the unlucky 13 recent polling put in the toughest position.
Airdrie and Shotts (UK Parliament) By-Election 13th of May 2021
An SNP MP attempting a move to the identically named Scottish Parliament constituency has led to this by-election. This will be a clear two-horse race between the SNP and Labour, and it seems likely the SNP will hold it.
SP21 – Ballot Box Battlegrounds Bonus Round
– Banffshire and Buchan Coast
– Glasgow Kelvin
– Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
– North East Fife
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 9th – 12th of April 2021
In a second post-Alba outing for Panelbase, they continue to be the outlier in finding notable levels of support, whilst the SNP fall short of a majority and Independence squeaks a narrow lead.
SP21 – Ballot Box Battlegrounds 4-1
#4 – Aberdeenshire West
#3 – Ayr
#2 – Edinburgh Central
#1 – Dumbarton
Poll Analysis: ComRes 2nd – 7th of April 2021
A slightly better result for the Lib Dems compared to other agencies, whilst the Conservatives fall back. An SNP majority is on a knife-edge, as is the evenly-split Independence question, and Alba languish on 3%.
SP21 – Ballot Box Battlegrounds 8-5
#8 – Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
#7 – Dumfriesshire
#6 – East Lothian
#5 – Edinburgh Southern